Speed is Speed, or is it?

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- attached is the Belmont day race that Woke Up Dreamin won. It\'s almost definitely right-- if you take off two you do get Vicarage and Smokume close to their tops, but you give out some awful big numbers to others, including 7yo Voodoo. And while I haven\'t done the Calder day yet, it\'s pretty hard to believe WUD ran anywhere near a neg 5, unless the track changed a lot-- Madcap ran as fast, and LITF a lot faster.

I don\'t know what Ragozin did with Belmont day, and I don\'t know what he gave WUD other than what you are telling me. But that\'s the day I discussed at length in an earlier post, where the track got faster, then extremely slow at the end. Ragozin has the policy I have often quoted (see his book, or my \"Changing Track Speeds\" presentation on this site for details), which is that the track doesn\'t change speed except when there is extreme weather-- this results in him creating what amounts to an average variant for the day that he applies to all races. It\'s possible he did that here.

Hit the \'www.thorograph.com\' link below to see the earlier Belmont Day post, and below that to see sheets for WUD\'s race that day.

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,20782,20782#msg-20782

jimbo,

I think analyzing paces and race results after the fact is useful. I\'d rather have a clear understanding of all the horses\' performances when they return than not.

Here\'s a little redboarding, but since I didn\'t bet the race and certainly wouldn\'t have bet the winner, I don\'t think there\'s any harm in presenting my thoughts prior to race.

It was obvious there was a ton of quality speed in the race. I was defintely looking for a horse that could sit just off the lead and pick up the pieces. I DON\'T THINK pace figures are all that useful in determining who will get the lead. They are most useful in determining how well horses actually have been running. I think style and quality are way more important in determining how the race will actually develop, who will get the lead etc... Pace figures are secondary because horses only tend to run as fast as required early. That\'s one key point.  

I didn\'t think Tosconi or Don Six fell into the category of being able to deliver a peak performance without the lead and I thought they would compromise each other\'s chances. Woke up Dreamin was similar, but he did have one good performance from slightly off the pace and a bunch of other speed performances in routes. There wasn\'t much to learn about his versatility from those routes. I was less sure he would be compromised than the others, but there was still a good chance he would. The price made the decision easy. I could never bet him at that price with the pace risks involved and the incremental possibility he might not even duplicate his last performance.    

Abbodanza was similar to Woke Up Dreamin in style, but IMO wasn\'t nearly as good. It\'s always tough for me to like the 2nd and 3rd string speed horses in a race loaded with quality speed.

After that, you are really starting to fish for a play based on the assumption that you will be 100% right about your fast pace assumptions (which is a silly assumption to begin with) and that it will impact all the superior horses by enough to get an inferior horse into the winners circle. That\'s a common mistake. Sometimes it does hurt them, but not by enough to get a dud into the winners circle.  

IMHO, the idea pre-race is to understand the possible, probable, or likely pace outcomes and use that information to adjust your odds line to reflect those insights.

If there\'s no one in the race that seems to be an overlay given the pace risks and running styles, skipping the race is better than betting an underlay just because you don\'t want to pay attention to pace, don\'t believe in it, or are sometimes wrong about the race development. Not betting an underlay or in a situation you aren\'t clear about is just as good as betting an overlay.  

Another key point to me is that some people think in terms of selecting a winner or assuming you have to predict the pace with certainty. You don\'t. You just have to understand the probabilities of the pace and adjust your line. At a certain price I would have bet any of those speed horses even though I thought the pace was going to be very fast.

After the fact, you analyze the pace and race results and use that extra information to evaluate them better the next time they run.

In any event, this is obviously all IMHO and I\'m sure there are pace applications others have to offer, but I think I bring something to the table on this issue because I\'ve been doing it for a long time and have already made all the mistakes that most people wind up making. So I have learned from them.




 

[Silver Charm]

>The final figs are much more reliable indicators of a horse\'s ability.

At least from a Beyer perspective. do not know what jerry\'s numbers were. I saw the races and pace played a HUGE factor in the final raw times of all three races.

[jbelfior]

No, I was thinking of HOUSEBUSTER. However GROOVY is a better example. The MADCAP ESCAPADE reference may be a valid one. Visually, I have not seen anyone quicker once she gets going.

Bob: I do not recall HB getting injured. It certianly would be a reason for his sub-par performance.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[xichibanx]

I believe your right Housebuster ripped up his foot against Sheikh Albadou as a huge favorite in the 91 BC Sprint at CD.

SC it was nice to see you Sunday.

xichibanx

[HP]

Silver,

\"I saw the races and pace played a HUGE factor in the final raw times of all three races.\"

And?  Now what?  

Class,

That\'s a very long post that could be summed up - (1) you didn\'t play the race but you\'ll redboard it now anyway (which you must realize COMPLETELY ignores Jimbo\'s point about talking about pace AFTER the race) and (2) you use pace to handicap and you make your own odds line accordingly to find value.  Interesting stuff.  

HP

[Silver Charm]

Please HP don\'t be difficult.

Admit that you have been beaten in this argument and beaten decisively.

The figures do not lie. Compare Lost in the Fogs Beyer to the Beyers the other two received and bet accordingly when they all square off Breeders Cup Day.

Xichibanx if everyone had your discipline at the track, the tracks would all go bankrupt.

[HP]

Silver,

I don\'t even know what the argument is.  I\'m not trying to be difficult.  I don\'t look at Beyers.  I didn\'t play these races, and I only looked at the ROTW.  I know Lost in the Fog is a monster but I don\'t know much about the other two.  A lot will happen between now and the BC.  Just say flat out what you want to say, in case I missed it...

HP

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

Thanks for posting the sheets.  

I don\'t make figures and really am not in a position to effectively dispute any of them.

But I have to say in looking at the sheets for that race, it seems to me that if you take off 2, the only horse that looks suspect is Voodoo.  Granted, a 7 year old running a new top by 2 points is pretty suspect, but you would be looking at a pairup for Smokeume and less regression from some of the others like With Distinction.

Anyway, I forgot that this day was the one where the track changed variant by something like 15 points or something ridiculous like that.  So, not surprising that you and Rags would have a three point difference in a day like that.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- the 15 point change came later in the card. The two dirt races that preceded the one in question were plus 1.5, plus 1, the two that followed were plus 3.5, plus 2.8. I did the WUD race at plus 2, right in line.

Voodoo is the most extreme problem if you do it at 3 points faster, but WUD (based on figures up to then at least) is much more likely to run neg 2 than neg 4, and Aagadan and Mass Media look better this way, although faster is possible.

In a month or so I\'ll go back and look at the whole day.

SC,

The one thing LITF has going for him is that he\'s a 3YO. Even though I think he would have had a much more difficult time in the race for older horses and wouldn\'t have run nearly as fast a final time, by BC time, he may be a better horse. Personally, I think he\'s due for a break, but it looks like they are going to run at Saratoga. I think it\'s too long of a gap betweeen the 3YO sprint up there and the BC. The BC is a tough spot to come back off a mini-layoff. So if he runs again after Saratoga and before the BC, that\'s some long campaign with a lot of shipping. If they hold him together that long, the Cigar Mile would be interesting.

 

 

[Saddlecloth]

Jimbo


I agree, in this situation it is \"after\" the race handicapping, thats why I said there were lots of reasons to expect a regression from him, including a pace match up.  I thought he was a miserable 7/5 chalk, even though he won.

[Saddlecloth]

HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo,
>
> You are so right.  Add in the fact that trainers
> and jockeys change tactics, frequently in
> inscrutable ways, and more often than not all this
> pace analysis does not add up to anything you can
> really get your teeth into and use.  Once in a
> blue moon you can look at a race and see a horse
> will have some kind of advantage based on pace,
> but more often than not I will be surprised to see
> a horse I figured would benefit from rating
> running too close to the lead or vice versa and
> it\'s all up in smoke.  The final figs are much
> more reliable indicators of a horse\'s ability, and
> more important, the patterns that you see are far
> more reliable indicators of future performance.
>
> HP
>
>


HP, I would agree, trying to predict pace can often be very futile, I tend to use a multi facitated approach of form cycles, pace as a factor in ability, and final times.  I know there was a comment about about pace handicappers, and while I completely agree that pace is a factor, I would say that form cycles is a major aspect in my selections.  I think I was the one who posted frustration that form cycles and that methodology does not seem to get talked about here all that often.

[Silver Charm]

Lost in the Fogs BIG BEYER WAS AIDED BY A SLOW PACE

[HP]

Saddle,

Judging by the posts here, I think there would be quite a conflict between the \"form cycles\" seen by those who look at final figures and those who look at the \"form cycles\" seen by those who emphasize pace.  I have no idea how pace handicappers in general (and those who post here in particular) extrapolate what they see.  

Like Jimbo, I see a lot of pace analysis and dissection after a race (not all bad by the way)...and supposedly this post-race analysis leads to...something...down the road when the horses come back.  Unfortunately I have not seen such a coup-de-pace on this board.  I don\'t doubt that it\'s possible, but I haven\'t seen anyone deliver the goods yet.  I haven\'t seen or heard of any specific significant paydays generated by these post-race (or pre-race!) pace dissertations.  A lot of speculation, generalities and sizzle, but no steak.  

HP