Speed is Speed, or is it?

jimbo,

>My point, ignored to date by Class, is that PACE HANDICAPPING IS USELESS AFTER THE FACT.<

Absolutely disagree. What could be more imporatnt than knowing how well a horse really ran when he comes back and you are looking at his figures and patterns. It may or may not lead to a bet, but you are obviously better off (assuming we are right of course).  

>POINT  OUT SOMETHING BEFORE A RACE GOES OFF IF YOU WANT TO PROVE A POINT. <

I did (and have on other occasions). I redboarded the Smile, but since I didn\'t cash I didn\'t think it mattered and I assumed you would believe me (especially because I said there was no chance I would have bet the winner) .  

I DIDN\"T BET the CALDER RACE because my pace analysis led me to believe that the outcome was going to be determined by what happened up front and it wasn\'t clear to me who if anyone would benefit. That the favorite rated just off and won doesn\'t matter. A single result doesn\'t matter. A series of 200 races might matter. What matters is that the pace WAS fast and IMO several horses were impacted and ran slower final times than they would have otherwise.

The whole point of my long post before was that sometimes NOT BETTING is valuable!    

[Michael D.]

class,
regarding all those times you type in a thousand words, then tell us there is no value in the race - just end it. you do it too much, nobody wants to read it, and it clutters up the board. no opinion based on TG (and other factors), then don\'t post. i think i speak for everyone.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

xichibanx Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I believe your right Housebuster ripped up his
> foot against Sheikh Albadou as a huge favorite in
> the 91 BC Sprint at CD.
>
> SC it was nice to see you Sunday.
>
> xichibanx


Housebuster definitely went bad in his last B.C.Sprint start and I believe it was a hoof injury. I can\'t remember if Housebuster ran the B.C.Sprint the prior year. I think he may have skipped it due to injury or form issues.

[Silver Charm]

Housebuster grabbed a quarter leaving the gate, or so Jimmy Croll said. Bet Twice was drugged, and Holy Bull was also sabatoged.

Housebuster wasn\'t going to win anyway. Lukas sent \"Hammers\" horse Media Plan, a gelded sprinter he sold to him for about a $Million, out in an opening quarter of about 21 flat. He may do the same thing this year with Going Wild. I wonder if P. Diddy is into horses.

HP I read where you said you go to the track and only buy \"Sheets\" but not the Daily Racing Form.

Is that legal??

[bdhsheets]

\"I think it\'s too long of a gap betweeen the 3YO sprint up there and the BC. The BC is a tough spot to come back off a mini-layoff.\"

What silliness CH. The BC Sprint has more wins/itm finishes off long layoffs than any other BC event. Not even close.

[P-Dub]

I think the price was closer to 400K, but still ridiculous.

[HP]

Class,

Here\'s what I think you should do (IMO).  Since you wrote this incredibly pedantic and longwinded post about the Smile and analyzed this race so carefully after the fact, show us how you use this in the future (i.e., when one of the horses come back) and DON\'T POST ANYMORE UNTIL THEN.  Go back to your Smile redboard post, pull out your \"analysis\" and apply it before a race.  It should be relatively simple for you to tie this up in a few weeks when one of these nags shows up for a race.  

Since you really haven\'t said anything new and have repeated yourself 10,000 times (and there are at least three other people on this thread who are telling you the same thing) maybe you could benefit from the \"layoff\" as well.

HP

BD,

\"The BC Sprint has more wins/itm finishes off long layoffs than any other BC event. Not even close. \"

I\'m not sure what the exact stats are on a ROI basis for the BC sprint, but it can\'t be a very big sample. I can tell you that I do well playing against short priced horses trying to win Grade 1 dirt stakes off 2 or more month layoffs. (sprints also)  If the horse is a standout, it can come back 95%+ or so and still win, but that\'s rarely the case in Grade 1s (standouts). I think you are way better off betting against horses like that. In the money finishes don\'t mean much to me in this case. A lot of layoffs come back just sharp enough to get a piece of the purse and run very close to their best figure without getting the job done in the last 1/8th.    

HP,

\"Here\'s what I think you should do (IMO). Since you wrote this incredibly pedantic and longwinded post about the Smile and analyzed this race so carefully after the fact, show us how you use this in the future (i.e., when one of the horses come back)\"

You really crack me up.

I already did and already know. Read my post about LITF and the duelers in the smile.

I\'ve also done that about a million times already with other horses including as we moved through the triple crown trail and other races. Every time I did it someone trashed me about bringing up pace again or misinterpreted what I was saying as a criticism of the accuracy of the TG\'s speed figures.

What you have to get past is the idea that only cashing a bet or picking the winner demonstrates the value of the insights.

What you have to look at is the subsequent performances of horses that I\'ve said weren\'t as good as their speed figures indicated and vice versa. You also have to look at the bets NOT MADE because a possibly more accurate appraisal of their performances indicated that there was no value even though it looked like there was based on speed figures alone.

Granted, my posts are often long winded, but if I tell you a horse sucks without explaining why I think that\'s the case how are you going to evaluate whether or not the specific insight might have any merit. If I say there\'s no value in a race without explaining a pace reason why I think a 5-1 shot with the top figure might not run back to his best, what good is it.



 

[HP]

Class,

I don\'t want to read through all of your crap again.  I\'m not giving you credit for bets you are not making, and if you think anyone else here does I believe you are sadly mistaken.  

Let me know when you are ready to bet for or against Lost in the Fog or any of the Smile horses based on your eye punishing nonsense.  Otherwise I would recommend you give it a rest.

Obviously I have no control over whether you post or not.  It\'s just a suggestion.  I\'ve been reading this board for years and I\'ve NEVER seen anyone as relentless as you -- with your expertise on pace, insurance, drugs and everything else.  You just know everything about...EVERYTHING.  With the slightest imagined prompting you are off on a diatribe about...your knowledge...of everything!  

I\'ve argued with Michael D on this board, but I think he reads the posts and responds to them without blowing his own horn 10,000 times.  He\'s even right about a few things!  I\'ve disagreed with others too and at least there is some DIALOGUE.  I don\'t think any post or response here (even from Jerry, who has only looked at every major race at every major track in the U.S. for the last 20 years!) has produced a dent in your opinion of anything.  

You remind me of a joke --

\"ADVERTISEMENT

Encyclopedia Brittanica for sale -- no longer needed by owner.  F**king wife knows everything.\"

HP

BD,

I took a quick look at the BC Sprint stats. It\'s possible I missed a horse here or there, but it looks like there were 4 winners from a total of 25 layoff starters.

Precisionist - 8.80
Very Subtle - 34.80
Desert Stomer - 31.00
Lite De Justice - 10.00

They were obviously highly profitable given the two longshot winners. The sample is kind of small considering the longshots.

Among the losers were many terrible longshots that weren\'t expected to do much and a few decent contenders that ran poorly.  

I can\'t think of any reason obvious reason the BC sprint would produce better layoff results than the typical Grade 1 sprint because there are very few Grade 1 sprints and horses are usually totally geared up for them.

I don\'t remember the figures going back that far, but I think it\'s possible to conclude the Precisionist would fall into the category of being solidly better than his field and only paid as high as 8.80 because of questions about distance and form just prior.

I know Very Subtle had a monster race in the Test, but beyond that I can\'t remember exactly where she fit.  

I remember not liking the other 2 very much for reasons other than the layoff.

In any event, it was eye opening to see the results. Thanks for pointing them out.  I still think LITF would be better off resting now and having a prep before the BC or with a race between Saratoga and the BC.

I can appreciate the goal of having a fresh horse, but I think more than 2 months is too long coming into a field of Grade 1 monsters. If a horse needs that much time to recover, there might be something wrong or being 97% may get him beat at a short price.



 
 

Deleted

[HP]

Just because you talk a lot about something doesn\'t mean you are good at it.  Trust me.  HP

[jimbo66]

Now that we are talking about Class\'s pocket billiards skills, blues music acumen, fantastic guitar playing and light bulb changing, any chance the board police will get involved.............

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- look, as everyone knows by now, the guy drives me nuts. I cut him a little slack because we have a mutual friend for whom I do have some respect-- he\'s a stand-up guy. But yeah, I\'ve had about enough, especially since it\'s clear everyone else feels pretty much the same way, and it\'s affecting the business of this board. I will point out to HP (again) that the worst thing you can do is respond to this guy-- he\'s a guy with a weak ego, desperate for attention, and all his posts are in the end about himself. The more you respond, the more important he feels, and the more he is encouraged to do it. Which is why I stopped responding to him.

CH-- don\'t respond to this, if you do it will be taken down. If you post on a handicapping topic (including pace), I will let it stand (for now), if it\'s really about your navel gazing (or redundant) it will come down.