Time for a Belmont Thread?

[jimbo66]

I guess with the Belmont Stakes just 5 days away, we should start a thread on the race. Any thread on this race has to start with Afleet Alex and whether there is a viable reason to bet against him.  He is coming in off a negative 2 3/4, his second really big number this year.  Of course if he pairs up, he wins.  My first reaction after the Preakness was that I won\'t waste money betting against AA again in the Belmont.  Two weeks has passed and the urge to take another shot against him is back!

Maybe I am reaching, but does anybody see the real similarity between Afleet Alex and the last three Belmont favorites, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones and War Emblem.  All four horses were viewed as very suspect at 1 1/4 going into the derby, based on the fact they were sired by milers.  After the Derby, many \"redboarders\" started to notice the dam side stamina influences.  Then, all four had very impressive Preakness wins, all blowoutes except War Emblem who did get a little scare late.  Then going into the Belmont, most of the \"distance questions\" for the previous 3 disappeared and they were solid favorites in the Belmont.  We all know the previous three stumbled in what I think is the last TRUE distance race in the U.S. for 3-year olds.  

Now, I am not saying that the distance is what got the previous three beaten, it could have been the \"bounce\", the long campaign, or in W.E\'s case, the stumble.  But nonetheless there were good betting opportunities in going against those horses.  (If you could find the winner, Empire Maker was not too hard to find, the other two, much harder).

Afleet Alex figures even money if the field stays in tact.  The problem is in finding somebody to beat him.  War Emblem ran against Perfect Drift and Medaglia D\'Oro, as well as the winner Sarava.  Funny Cide ran against Empire Maker and Ten Most Wanted.  Smarty ran against Birdstone, Eddington and Rock Hard Ten.  To date, none of the opponents of Afleet Alex have near the credentials as those horses, although at the time of the Belmont, some of those horses were not as good as they now appear.  

Who can step up?  Giacomo is the Derby winner, and off of paired up \"0\'s\", I can\'t blame anybody for taking a shot with him at what will probably be attractive odds of 5 or 6 to 1.  Not for me though.

Andromeda\'s Hero and his big \"gallop out after the wire\" moves?  If he was 15-1 or so, maybe, but I suspect he will be single digit odds, probably not appetizing enough.

I am interested in seeing the T-Graph figures/patterns on three horses.  Reverberate,Pinpoint,and Chekhov, in that order.  Reverberate ran on well in the Peter Pan, well clear of 3rd.  He got a 106 Beyer, which is better than anybody except Afleet Alex.  He was pointing to the Belmont, unlike Oratory, so he may not have been fully cranked for the Peter Pan.  He has tactical speed in a race that suddenly has very little speed in it, and should get a nice trip, possibly saving ground.  He is by Thunder Gulch, so we know he can get the distance.  I wish he had a different trainer as I know nothing about Sal Russo, but he could be worth a bet at 12-1.  Pinpoint is coming in off three straight wins, all \"wire to wire\", none of which were accomplished from the 1 path, so I am guessing that his T-Graph figures might appear better than his Beyer figures.  The Sir Barton to the Belmont angle was successful with Sarava and there were actually a couple of \"runners\" in that Sir Barton race, so the win might be better than it looks on paper.  Another with good speed and a likely ground saving trip.  The last is Chekhov.  I am slightly intrigued in that he was so well thought off, off the maiden score, then got a really wide trip.  I want to see what those T-Graph figures are before I decide if he is worth a bet, but he is at least interesting.  

Thoughts?



Post Edited (06-06-05 10:57)

[HP]

At even money, I would be going against Afleet Alex.  Too bad Buzzards Bay isn\'t going.  I thought he had a nice pattern after his Derby to move up....

Otherwise I\'ll have to wait and see on the others you mention.

HP

[Kasept]

Jimbo wrote: \"Reverberate ran on well in the Peter Pan, well clear of 3rd. He got a 106 Beyer, which is better than anybody except Afleet Alex... I wish he had a different trainer as I know nothing about Sal Russo, but he could be worth a bet at 12-1.\"


Jimbo..

Here\'s what you need to know about Sal Russo: He was Scotty Schulhofer assistant before going out on his own, and later worked as Jose Santos\' agent helping get him the ride on Lemon Drop Kid..

While an assistant for Scotty, he worked with one Colonial Affair.. If you want to see something intriguing, pull up Affair\'s PP\'s and overlay them on Reverberate\'s..

CA: http://www.drf.com/tc/belmont/2004/pps/colonialaffair.pdf

REVERB (with rest of possibles): http://www.drf.com/tc/belmont/2005/contenders.pdf


It\'s SPOOKY, right down to the 106 BSF\'s in their respective Peter Pan 2nds and their juvenile 5ths in the Nashua!

In addition, Reverberate will run under the colors of Centennial Farms, the same cream and scarlet silks of the aforementioned Colonial Affair..



Post Edited (06-06-05 11:08)

[Saddlecloth]

Reverberate is the only viable option to afleet alex and giacomo.  

I do have some questions about afleet alex, he has a in-out pattern and at even money this could be his out.  

Giacomo should get a share and wont be 5 or 6, more like 7/2.  

Reverberate will be a clear third choice at 4/1 or so.  

I think it will be funny to see if the \"Giacomo Effect\" is in play, that means the general public betting money on hopeless longshots like AP Arrow and Nolans Cat, as they did with Going Wild and Hals Image in the preakness.

[shanahan]

I am not anticipating any big longshots to jump up here, and feel that the AA, Reverberate (thanks for the link), Andromeda\'s Hero make the board, still contemplating checkhov\'s true chances...by the way, speaking of patterns I noticed that the wagering pattern on Dollar Bill overlaid with Noble Causeway sure looked similar - and had the same results from this handicapper!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

A.P.Arrow - All that good A.P. Indy Belmont blood diluted. (latter: mare did get Geri. Not as weak as first appeared)

Andromeda\'s Hero - It seems Zito\'s new thing is to run half the field. If the race collapses he could clunk up for a piece.

Chekhov - May be a Ten Most Wanted(Afraid of contact) but hasn\'t run fast enough to win and though pricey his breeding doesnt instill 12 mark confidence. Biggest enigma of race.

Giacomo - Honest, hard tryer

Pinpoint - This one really looks too lightly bred to win the Belmont.

Southern Africa - Has only run one poor race in his life, but seems a notch below the best and thats a tough row to hoe in this race.

Watchmon - Maria\'s Mon is a good stallion, but over a Notebook mare?

Reverberate - Wake up looks to coincide with the addition of blinkers. Of the Front end horses: Reverberate, A.P.Arrow, Pinpoint and Southern Africa, Reverberate may have the classiest speed.

Nolan\'s Cat - Actually he\'s Kenneth Ramsey\'s Cat and thats good enough reason to bet against him. If you like A.P. Arrow, you have to consider this one.

Indy Storm - This one is much more stout female side. Mare is a full to Banshee Breeze. Heads up A.P.Arrow vs. Indy Storm?



Post Edited (06-06-05 12:35)

[big18741]

Reverberate started getting good when he got the blinks Chuckles is correct.The only other horse that has an on the pace style is Pinpoint who needs to be there and it also helps out his stablemate Andromeda.

In terms of trip Southern Africa will get the perfect one if he\'s any good and can deal with the distance.He should get the stalking trip sitting off a moderate pace behind Pinpoint and Reverberate.He also seems to have picked up his game some with the addition of blinks.I think Reverberate is the faster animal more suited to the track and distance,but SA looks good on trip and he seems to be coming up to the race nicely.

I think Reverberate goes off a couple ticks higher than 4-1 maybe 6-1.AA will be shorter than even money off the Preakness.He\'s going to get blasted at the windows based on how he won the Preakness.Southern Africa will be maybe 6th choice and long.Puhich/Court and Lone Star don\'t add up to getting bet.If you\'re trying to beat AA I think Reverberate or SA are the way to go.Tactically they\'re better suited for this race than Giacomo-who won\'t get the pace he needs,and they\'ll both be longer.Sit close-move on the turn,and hope Alex doesn\'t have it.

[big18741]

Reverberate ran a 3 or so in his allowance win.Not sure how much he moved up in the Peter Pan,but guessing it makes him competitive if AA runs an off race and you know Giacomo will be way wide at least on the second turn for sure.Reverberate ran a hard race in the Pan so I can\'t see him improving again in 2 weeks,but a repeat isn\'t out of the question.He loves the track and is bred to go all day.Southern Africa ran a 3 and change prior to the Lone Star Derby,and I\'m guessing he also moved up some in that race-he was nice and wide when he won there.He gets almost a month in between races and some nice works so some more improvement isn\'t out of the question.

The Zitos might be on good patterns but they look really slow.Andromeda has 5.5\'s and could improve,but he\'s going to get way overbet.Birdstone had run reasonably fast as a 2 yr old and in his comebacker at 3.He also won the Champagne over the track.He went off 36-1.Andromeda has done nothing and will go off at what 12-1? No thanks.

[jbelfior]

Outside of AFLEET ALEX, this has to be one of the weakest Belmont\'s in a long while.

REVERBERATE can certainly end up a factor. From what I have seen or heard, the best thing ANDROMEDA\'s HERO has ever done is pull up ahead of AFLEET ALEX in Arkansas.

PINPOINT prevailed on a slow pace in a non-descript field. SOUTHERN AFRICA was getting beat up by the same bunch of maligned Cal contingent...no thanks.

GIACOMO is no VICTORY GALLOP which is what he would have to be to win this one.

The rest should run in an allowance race with a 7:03 post time while everyone is trying to get out of the Belmont parking lot.


AFLEET ALEX would have to fall down to lose this one.....ooops.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Saddlecloth]

I think the Belmont distance tends to string them out a bit, wide trips in this race are not that much of a concern to me, unless somehow you get hung out on the first turn.
big18741 wrote:

> Reverberate ran a 3 or so in his allowance win.Not sure how
> much he moved up in the Peter Pan,but guessing it makes him
> competitive if AA runs an off race and you know Giacomo will be
> way wide at least on the second turn for sure.Reverberate ran a
> hard race in the Pan so I can\'t see him improving again in 2
> weeks,but a repeat isn\'t out of the question.He loves the track
> and is bred to go all day.Southern Africa ran a 3 and change
> prior to the Lone Star Derby,and I\'m guessing he also moved up
> some in that race-he was nice and wide when he won there.He
> gets almost a month in between races and some nice works so
> some more improvement isn\'t out of the question.
>
> The Zitos might be on good patterns but they look really
> slow.Andromeda has 5.5\'s and could improve,but he\'s going to
> get way overbet.Birdstone had run reasonably fast as a 2 yr old
> and in his comebacker at 3.He also won the Champagne over the
> track.He went off 36-1.Andromeda has done nothing and will go
> off at what 12-1? No thanks.
>
>

Jimbo,

\"All four horses were viewed as very suspect at 1 1/4 going into the derby, based on the fact they were sired by milers.\"

I had the exact same thought.

I would like to take another stab against him if he\'s even money. I think he is even more vulnerable on running style than some of the others. The general public assumes that closers do better at the longer distance, but that is very often not the case. I could easily see AA losing that big late burst at 12 furlongs and hanging badly.

I haven\'t given much thought to who can beat him, but Giacomo was also suspect at 10F. So I\'m not thrilled with that option either.