acorn

[mikemd]

any thoughts on this race?

i can make a case for five of the six.  spendid blended looks like a deserving favorite off the expected improvement from december.  seek a star seems to be a closest to the top pick.  she really seemed to improve following her jan 13 race.  almost a different horse.  however, i see no real edge at the morning line.  likely a pass race for me.



Post Edited (06-04-05 09:20)

[spa]

Tough race...I\'d box the 1/2/3

[richiebee]

Mike:
Good job in the Peter Pan last week.

The Acorn is a legit Grade 1 with 5 of 6 entrants showing a Graded Stakes win. I think Splendid Blended, obviously talented, will be overbet based on connections (Drysdale/Bailey). She has never competed in a one turn race. Drysdale\'s win %, which used to be nearly 25%, now 15%, with a 9% strike rate in graded stakes according to DRF. I look to In the Gold, wet winner, Belmont winner, 3/4 in one turn races, to give NPZ his first stakes win as a Hall of Fame inductee. She has had a month up at Oklahoma to rebound from a full Spring campaign.

In the late multiple race sequences (P3/P4), I will be looking to beat another short price based on connections type runner in the 7th: Grey Traffic, off the layoff for Bailey/Frankel, has already lost at 1/5 and 8/5 at Belmont. According to NYRA, GT will race with an aluminum pad on, but unfortunately NYRA\'s record when making these types of announcements is not perfect.

Much rain overnight here in NY, track condition will be key. There has been much talk about the depth of cushion changing over the years. I have yet to see a detailed discussion of the type of heavy equipment which is being used to maintain these racing surfaces (floats, harrows, rollers, etc) and what if anything a track super can do during the card to eliminate a percieved bias. I have always been interested to see that in some instances the harrows are pulled against the direction of racing between races, and wondered what the intended effect of that was.

I knew a handicapper at Monmouth in the 80s who always brought tidal information to the races. He was convinced that certain tidal factors determined how effective speed would be for that day\'s races.



Post Edited (06-04-05 11:53)

[Saddlecloth]

I think splendid blended at 5/2 is terrible price.  a injury riddled three year old season and a ship across country to face a decent field of fillies....well that does not make a favorite for me.

[mikemd]

richiebee,

i may have to get that tidal information. :-)  i\'m off to monmouth for my yearly one week of live betting.  i try to hit a different track every year.  sad in a way.  most of the 80s i went to live racing 200 days a year.  since online wagering started, i go to about 10.

[jimbo66]

I think you have to look at In the Gold off the 1 turn race at Keenland where she ran a \"2\".  Sure, she bounced in the Oaks, but like mentioned above, she is 0 for 5 in two turn races, 3 for 4 in one turn races, looks like the dam sire (Groovy) has more influence in her success at distances than her sire.  

Round Pound looks to have a nice pattern, about 60% to pair up or move to a new top, off the T-Graph stats.  Considering her top is a \"3\", she is very dangerous.   Tough to assess the impact of the illness that kept her out of the Black-Eyed Susans, but off the 57 breezing workout, she looks to be fit.

Splendid Blended is tough to bet and tough to throw out.  She looked over-rated early in her career before that \"3\" that she ran out of nowhere in December.  Now, with 6 months of development, she could be faster.  However, she has never been one turn and is returning in a Grade 1.  The offset to that is that Drysdale is a pretty conservative trainer and for him to return her in a Grade 1, shows a lot of confidence.  I will throw her out, but not be surprised if she beats me.  

Shug\'s horse is a little slow, showing a top of \"5\" last time out, but could be interesting.  Shug almost never has them cranked first time back and I would expect her to move forward.  

Tough to read Seeking the Star.  The \"1\" she ran two back at Keenland probably wins this.  But she regressed 3 points in her next race, although she won again. Now, she stretches out to a mile.  Inclined to think further regression, but she will be on the lead, saving ground, so is dangerous.  

I think In the Gold is the best horse in the race, has a win at Belmont and has already won twice at the one turn mile distance.  Expecting a big effort out of her.  Will bet her to win and use in exacta boxes with Round Pound and Shug\'s horse.  

As for odds, I thought In the Gold might be 2-1, along with Splendid Blended, but if the offshore odds are any indication, that is not correct.  Splendid Blended is 9-5 on the matchup to finish ahead of In the Gold, so if that is any indication, SB will go off a solid favorite, maybe less than 2-1.

Good luck

Splendid Blendid looks like the horse with the most potential based on her figures from last year, but I\'ll have to pass on a horse that\'s been out close to 6 months in her first race back when the price is likely to be short.

Seek a Star dueled off a decent horse (Hot Storm) in a fast pace and drew off from a field that IMO was better than Grade 3 quality at 7.5F. No one else in this field has that kind of sprint quality early speed. She may be able to shake loose and go all the way here. IMO, her last race is better than it looks.  

Round Pond is developing nicely.

In the Gold will appreciate the shorter distance and one turn.
 
Waiting to see how the track is playing.