peter pan

[mikemd]

i actually have three overlays in the race at the morning line:

oratory
reverberate
robador

i take it oratory doesn\'t like to run inside of horses. of course, my biggest rooting interest will be for mr sword to finish last, as is my nature anytime paraneck runs a horse.

[Michael D.]

good luck mike,

Ro - too slow?

SG - not sure. \"3\" top on dirt. should get a nice trip tracking Rev. i will try and beat as second choice.

MS - tough read for me. nice sprint at lrl, and a nice inner track # at aqu, but the TP route was a bit slow. try and beat here.

Chekhov - $3.3mio tabor colt, will be the fav, and should be. nice # last closing into a fast pace. best runner here.

GM - the fastest, but a tough call - one nice fig for dutrow.

Gor - too slow?

Rev - should get a nice trip on the lead.

Ora - two decent figs, should get a decent stalking trip two wide.
....
i will take a shot with the fastest, GM, on top. dutrow seems to have this guy in good shape, and he liked the wide turns at GP. i think chekhov is the best horse, but he will be the favorite, and the belmont is the goal. hoping for a late run for 2nd. flat ex, GM over Chek. tri GM/Chek/SG, Rev, Ora (small CH/Gm saver just in case). good luck everybody!!

[big18741]

I\'m not so sure Reverberate is getting the lead off of Sir Greeley.

5/8 Reverberate went a slow 1/4(24.09) and 1/2(47.12) in comparison to the other races at Belmont that day.Sir Greeley can get the front and control the race without having to work all that hard given the rest of the field.I can\'t see Jerkens and Coa allowing Sir Greeley to get backed down on the rail behind Reverberate.I think they\'re sending here bouncing out of that turf race.

[johndrj]

Reverberate & Sir Greeley look like they can control the pace of this race.  Chekhov ran a big one 1st time at BEL.

John

[twoshoes]

Is there any reason to suspect GM won\'t pair for Dutrow? GM to win and key with Chekov and Mr. Sword running back to one of his good ones.

[ronwar]

At the odds, have to go with Mr. Sword bouncing back

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

very nice call miked. I liked reverberate on the odds but couldn\'t come up with the winner.

By the way, that looks awfully quick. Anyone else scratching there head?

[Saddlecloth]

slow pace fast finish, not that excited about a horse who will be rushed back in two weeks to go another 3 furlongs and will be second choice.

[jimbo66]

Saddlecloth,

What would this horse have had to do to get you \"excited\"?  He was 4/5 off os Secretariat\'s track record and broke the stakes record easily.  Slow early and fast late is EXACTLY the type of race you want before the Belmont.  Going fast early at 1 1/2 miles is not the way to win the ONLY true distance race left in the U.S., not that milers win the Kentucky Derby on a regular basis.  

The trainer said the Belmont was doubtful after the race.  That would be disappointing since he would at least be interesting in that race.  And right now, the Belmont needs some interesting horses because AA looks like \"death and taxes\" right now.  

Very curious to see the figure this horse gets from Jerry in today\'s race.  Bailey doesn\'t gush over every horse and he was gushing over this one.  

Interesting.....

This race is going to come back pretty DARN fast, but IMO it was more of a glorified NW2 allowance race than a legitimate Grade 2 stakes race form a quality perspective. Plus, they absolutely walked on the front end because Sir Greeley got squeezed at the start and got taken out of his probable role as pace setter.  It looked like it was going to be a slow paced race even if Sir Greeley (who looked a little faster than these early) didn\'t have a terrible start.  

I would tend to say this performance is not quite as good as it looks on paper - though still very very good.

There were so many lightly raced high quality horses in there, someone was probably going to step forward big.

At least we have a new name for the summer stakes races like the Travers.



Post Edited (05-29-05 10:30)

[miff]

Jerry,

You can defend your horses are getting faster theory until the cows come home. Your Najran example is old and isolated.Today, we know that most race tracks are scraping the surface on major race days making it produce fast raw times.Tracks are NOT slower today especially on big race days.

You failed to address my earlier comments that horses are NOT bigger and stronger than they were years ago, go check like I did.All agree that most other species are bigger, stronger, faster than years ago.We know about nutrition etc, but your ASSUMPTION that runners are generally bigger than they used to be, is wrong.

The fact remains that you are unable to justify or explain why so many average dirt performances come up in the negative territory on your product.I am not talking about high class runners throwing big time figs.

Between the \"ugly\" pairs and the inordinate number of negative figs awarded for \"common\" performances, it is difficult to have the same confidence in the figs, as in years past.

Like I stated previously, I believe that somewhere along the line, your personal opinions/prejudices have creapt into your figure making endeavors.This may explain why some figs are now close to ridiculous on occasion,imo.

Specifically,once again,NAME the runners who would \"dust\"Fager and Sec with all things equal, I would love to take you to task on those two specifically.Enough generalities without any proof and only your fairly isolated opinion on Horses Getting Faster.

Lastly, there is no argument from me that it is reasonable to think that horses(runners) are a couple of fifths faster in general but NOT 2 secs(10 lenghts) as you state.Don\'t go near Harness racing, I owned 20 of them and there are MANY reasons why they are 5 seconds+ faster than they used to be.

[kev]

There you go, the old school, living in the past \" no one would ever beat the great Sec.\"

This poll was on ESPN.com

What\'s it going to take for you to rate Ghostzapper as an all-time great?

1. Nothing, the BC win was enough for me= 7%

2. A good showing in his five or six 2005 starts with another BC win= 38%

3. Going undefeated in a coast to coast campaign of more than six races= 39%

4. The horse would have to sprout wings, literally= 18%

People just can\'t enjoy what we have now, they have to say well this horse is good, oh but he\'s no Sec. I think there is alot more better horses than Sec. was. I do think GZ will have to run very well the rest of this year, and Bobby said after the BC he wants to race him on the grass, just like the old great Sec.

[Michael D.]

doesn\'t get much better than that mikemd (especially mr sword coming in last). i didn\'t get a chance to watch the races yesterday, but oratory dusted some decent horses in pretty quick time. impressive.

[miff]

Kev,

The questions revolve around horses getting faster and unwarranted negative figs.Ghostzapper is a legit beast.Feel free to join in on the discussion if you feel you have the experience/knowledge of the subject.

[richiebee]

The negative TGs/ high Beyers affect the game on another level. Right now Bellamy Road could be retired to stud as the \"fastest three year old ever\" based on one race.

In the 7th at Belmont today, Contrast (SCRATCHED) is bred to the nines (Unbridled- Safely Kept). She broke her maiden at Delaware in 1:11.4, earning a seemingly ridiculous Beyer of 105. If you go back and look at the PPs for the Genuine Risk Handicap at Bel May 14, I don\'t think there was a single older filly or mare in this (graded) race with a Beyer that high.

Are horses getting faster? Here\'s an overly simple, naive look at figure making: For Contrast to have run 6f in 1:11.4, and to be awarded a 105 Beyer, there must have been some very SLOW animals running at Delaware that day.

Its more than track surfaces and cushion. Nerud and Lauren did not have the advantages of all the advances made in (legitimate)vetrinary medicine, horsehoeing and equine nutrition; I don\'t think they even had aluminum plates when Dr Fager raced.

The sad part of today\'s game is that if another colt who is truly on Secretariat\'s level comes along and dominates the Triple Crown races the way Sec did, economics dictate that he would be retired before he finished cooling out after the Belmont.



Post Edited (05-29-05 12:29)