TGJB-drifting in the stretch?

[big18741]

I\'ve always viewed horses bearing in or out in the stretch as very negative and never bet these types back in their next out if on short rest.Will you be addressing this in your Preakness write up(Giacomo and CA)and in general do you ever bet these types of horses back in their next starts if on limited rest?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Closing Argument was definitely on a \"Swain Path\" bear out. Though to my eye he carried Giacomo out there. The interesting part of the stretch is where Giacomo is coming about 3-4 paths wide and takes a bump which both clears him and shoves him out to 6 wide and beyond. Perhaps a very fortuitous bump.

[JJP]

Considering the race Closing Argument ran, its no surprise he was bearing out late.  He was the only horse who was amoung the top finishers who was near the crushing pace, and he didn\'t exactly save ground on either turn.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Pace is not a popular term around here right now, but with Closing Arguments Pace style and gate hole there was no way you could foresee him running the race he did. That was a spectacular effort. He got the benefit of wide, but its clear hes outrunning his breeding.

All the Pace/Runup stuff has my head spinning. Runups especially. Pace numbers can be evaluated by internal fractions and focusing upon the very first fraction (the runup fraction) in a race is useful, but its not the whole enchilada. Personally, my view is that runups are placed consistently and its much adieu about little.

Its also my view that pace impacts the final number. Thats relative of course to a number of things, including odds. So its easy to have disagreements about Pace impact when a horse is coming into a race with a string of TGraph Zeds\' and his next nearest competitior though Pace advantaged has TGraph 1.2\'s.  If the odds say the Zed horse is a better return the Pace disadvantage is relative.

Anyway, theres times to depart from Pace considerations and its easy to understand methods that say Horses generally run their race. That is generally true.

[JJP]

Forget teletimers and runups.  Just look at the chart.  When you see a field is strung out 20 lengths from front to back, that\'s an insane pace.  If you see a field all bottled up within 5 lengths, its a slow pace.  The Derby field was strung out 20 lengths.  The pace was insane.

[Ron G.]

The derby always has a strung out finish,no matter a slow or fast pace.

[JJP]

I was referring to how strung out the field is on the backstretch, not at the finish.