Preakness sheet patterns

[brokerstip]

Giacomo just ran a new 4 pt. top. He comes back on 2 wks rest.
The 50-1 and now 8-1 question:
Would you expect a new top, a pair or a bounce?

Alex had a 4 1/2 pt. development from his 2yo top and bounced. Is two weeks too short a time to expect a rebound towards his top?
Or is this a deteriorating pattern?


Wilko paired his 2yo top and reacted in the KD. Similiar to Giacomo, who had a similiar pattern (pairup and slight reaction...then boom) is Wilko likely to run a new top?

With that preface, in your humble opinions, are there any other Derby horses running back in the Preakness that have a better looking pattern than these three?
 

With utmost respect to the trip and pace handicappers (and I say that with sincerity), this is a sheet pattern question.

[JR]

What\'s wrong with Closing Argument?

[marcus]

 It might be interesring to note how Giacomo ran his 4 pt , I\'m guessing he\'s 50/50 to run a good race w/ a much smaller chance to run a new top than to pair up right now . Closing Argument is another one might use if a big price ... I\'m definately wanting to hear what Jerry has to say to help me decide how to view this race .The Preakness might very well shape up to be a situation where there is no clear cut play so taking a shot (on an outsider ) is justified or perhaps passing altogether is another option .

[MO]

Closing Argument has the best pattern

[flushedstraight]

You want humble opinions? Where\'s the fun in that?

I find it challenging to evaluate these different patterns without taking price into consideration.

I\'m biased against Afleet Alex for the same reasons mentioned multiple times around here but just looking at the TG I think he has a nice pattern with a very good chance at a rebound. He looks like a monster where the derby was clearly an off effort and plainly just too soon after the top.

The horse everyone loves to hate, the nag, the enigma, the vilified High Limit has a very playable pattern if you are willing to toss the derby, which is not that wacky. Considering his bad press before the derby and the fact that he was over 20-1 in the derby and finished 20th by 44+ lengths which only validated his critics, he could still generously reward the faithful this week, despite Pimlico legend Prado hopping aboard. I don\'t know how many egg facials I can take in 1 month but if he\'s 20-1 again I\'ll be forced to find out.

I question Closing Argument having only 2 weeks off after the 2 1/4 pt top but then again why can\'t Kiaran steal a page from Lukas for this one?