Patterns going into the Preakness

[MO]

Giacomo bounces
Closing Argument moves forward (Winner?)
Afleet Alex backs up again or pairs his Derby


What do you all say?

[jbelfior]

I say HIGH FLY follows his pattern and improves to an even better # than his Fla. Derby (perahps a neg #).



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[beyerguy]

High Fly was my first inclination as soon as I looked at the probables.

[flushedstraight]

Closing Arguement looks like a bonce to me; 2 weeks off following a 2 1/4 pt top with bo

High Fly; my derby key and now have mixed opinions; maybe the tough race did him good but what factor(s) did him in at CD... pace? distance? (lack of) class? can\'t run out of Fla? drug testing? effects finally felt from fast #s in Jan,Feb? fear shorter price with questions still looming, still a new top wouldn\'t shock but niether would another flop

Greeley\'s Galaxy; chance to return to neg #... at a generous price?

[jbelfior]

FLUSHED--

HIGH FLY...Drug testing???

Are you suggesting that Zito is a move-up trainer??



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[flushedstraight]

Joe

of course not... I\'m suggesting he was a move-up trainer

[spa]

It\'ll be Afleet alex by 5.........

[jimbo66]

Be careful Spa,

Sometimes you get the bear, but sometimes the bear gets you............

Afleet Alex is off the board as the chalk.  I think Chris or somebody posted here before the derby that AA was more likely to be hurt by the rough campaign and Ritchey\'s training regimen in the Preakness, than in the Derby.

[big18741]

Giacomo fully extended and bearing in.

Closing Argument-chases a ridiculously hot pace battles all the way to the wire and bears out.

Afleet Alex under a drive on the turn and not good enough to pass a 71-1 shot who chased one of the faster paces in Derby history and can\'t hold off the 50-1 plodder who has a loss to Going Wild on his resume in the Sham stakes.I think he\'d have trouble winning the Sir Barton stakes on the undercard at Pimlico by 5 lengths.He\'d do well just to repeat the 2.5 from the Derby.I see him going back even further.

The drifting for the top two doesn\'t bode well especially on short rest.They emptied the tank in the stretch and I see both going backwards despite what the pattern stats might show.

It\'s a good spot to look at one of the also rans or the new shooters.

[HP]

The training PLUS the Derby will kill off Afleet Alex.  

I just realized I\'m going to Disneyworld next weekend and will not be playing the Preakness.  

Good luck to all!

HP

[jbelfior]

HP--


If Disney was really magical it would have simulcasting.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jimbo66 wrote:

> Be careful Spa,
>
> Sometimes you get the bear, but sometimes the bear gets
> you............
>
> Afleet Alex is off the board as the chalk.  I think Chris or
> somebody posted here before the derby that AA was more likely
> to be hurt by the rough campaign and Ritchey\'s training regimen
> in the Preakness, than in the Derby.

Well, hard to get very serious about the foregoing. Hard to be real enthusiastic about Alex this time around too though, especially if you think he bounced even more than 4 points (Some of that was factored to be path bias though) Whether a form issue has anything at all to do with the training regime is highly, highy debatable.

Alex ran a sprint, a race where he was sick GOING IN, and a big Ark. He had lots of solid non race groundwork and regression factored that may have taken him as far as he got in the Derby. Alex didn\'t have ideal 3YO foundation and his training in fact may have carried him.

Horses spend too much time in their stalls. Way too much. They are outdoors animals and Ritchey\'s technique, though somewhat novel is attention intensive. I like that. Groundwork strengthens bones and joints. Bandini and Bellamania are down for repair and the more heavily raced Alex just keeps squealing, kicking at his ball and running good races.

He\'s liable to be the favorite though, so taking a shot at him is logical on the Derby bounce. On the training, its downright foolish.



Post Edited (05-13-05 09:27)

Steve Davidowitz said that Afleet Alex looked a little beat up after the race.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

What did Steve think of the way High Limit, Bellamania, Bandini and Wilko looked.

[HP]

\"He\'s liable to be the favorite though, so taking a shot at him is logical on the Derby bounce. On the training, its downright foolish.\"

Chuckles,

It\'s not foolish!  The horse has endured the training PLUS the grueling Derby.  I posted this BEFORE the race, that the training will catch up with up even more AFTER May 7.

How can you separate the training from the racing?  He ran two-a-days PLUS he ran in the Derby.  Now he has to go again in two weeks?  You can only HOPE he\'s the favorite.  I don\'t think he will be.  

As has been pointed out AD NAUSEUM they CRAWLED home and he was FLAT AS A PANCAKE in the stretch when he was in position to win the race.  In fact, that would be my chart comment, FLAT AS A PANCAKE.  And you don\'t think the training MAY have had something to do with it?  That he couldn\'t go wailing past the dying speed that was coming home in like, TWO HOURS? (okay, a .54 final half, it just felt like two hours).  

Looking at the race beforehand, if ANY of the MAJOR contenders figured to benefit from the pace scenario, wasn\'t it AFLEET ALEX?  Wasn\'t he the only one who figured to come from OFF the pace, rather than be close to or stalking it?  So they had a hot pace, and here comes AFLEET ALEX in the stretch and he can\'t win in this perfect setup?  This tells you the training regimen is SOLID?  Betting against the horse because his trainer was killing his horse with two-a-days before the Kentucky Derby is FOOLISH?  

When I get back, I\'ll review your seven horse list of Preakness contenders...

HP