DERBY NUMBERS?

[high roller]

hi

i have been one of the few to criticize both thorograph and the sheets, because i use both.

my first impressions on the derby day card which i just reviewed is that jerry for the most part gave out good numbers in the early races, no Minus 5\'s etc.

i also firmly believe that high limit never ran a pair of ones, that louisana derby was a disaster and a much slower race than thoro has it.

as far as the derby after carefully reviewing the charts and watching the replays, does anyone believe that giacomo suddenly jumped up 4.5 points (and no juice trainer?)  that tells you right there j.b. has the race wrong.

how did afleet alex get a better number than buzzards bay and about the same as don\'t get mad?

first off alex got God\'s trip saved a lot of ground the second half of the race. buzzard\'s bay was 5-6 wide most of the trip and made a huge 7 wide move on the turn!

mad was wide then fanned 10 wide in the lane?

why the rush to judgement, let\'s see what the sheets say. look for the price these services charge i demand almost perfection.

[miff]

High Roller said,

\"as far as the derby after carefully reviewing the charts and watching the replays, does anyone believe that giacomo suddenly jumped up 4.5 points (and no juice trainer?) that tells you right there j.b. has the race wrong\"


Mike,

With 126lbs and being that wide, as a sheet guy, what did you think Giamoco would get by TG/Rags methodology. As JB has often said, interpretation/use of the figs is somethimg everyone must learn for themselves.I rate the fig an accurate \"ugly\"0.2

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well,

The old pattern was for horses to slowly progress and throw tops in the Derby. Giacomo was essentially a steady horse. No regression, but no real progression after the Hollywood Futurity either.

His pedigree is a little light. Though he does have that Stop the Music mare and thats probably the highlight of his proximate bloodline. Dosage is voodoo but in this era where they all qualify he is 4.33

http://www.pedigreequery.com/giacomo2

He had an awful lot go his way in the Derby. The field is gonna be whittled down some, but I wouldn\'t count upon all those breaks again.

[Saddlecloth]

Is it possible the santa anita derby was off?  I mean the Dont get mad has a first and fourth out of it, and every other horse has performed well that was in it?

[Kasept]

\"His pedigree is a little light. Though he does have that Stop the Music mare and thats probably the highlight of his proximate bloodline.\"


CtC..

FYI.. His pedigree is so \"light\" that his female family has now produced 4 Kentucky Derby winners in 40 years..

Northern Dancer
Spectacular Bid
Cannonade
Giacomo



Post Edited (05-11-05 12:17)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

>KaSept Wrote
> CtC..
>
> FYI.. His pedigree is so \"light\" that his female family has now
> produced 4 Kentucky Derby winners in 40 years..
>
> Northern Dancer
> Spectacular Bid
> Cannonade
> Giacomo

Set Them Free:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/set+them+free

Natalma:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/natalma

Spectacular:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/spectacular


Queen Sucre

http://www.pedigreequery.com/queen+sucree

KaSept, you\'re all over the board with that remote Blanford pedigree. Youre bringing in from every angle and remote generationally. I think you\'re dipping six generations back to find it in Giacomo. I\'m assuming thats your \"Derby Blood\" connection.

All I can say is Giacomo\'s Grade I career has already ended.



Post Edited (05-11-05 12:49)

[Kasept]

Female family is female family Chuck. His tail female line is 2-d, and the females in the family have produced the 4 Derby winners I mentioned. Period. It\'s no more obscure than La Troienne being Smarty\'s 7th dam or whatever she is.

And the reference is Fly By Night, a chestnut filly by Peter Pan...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Peter Pan?

Foaled 1904? Dont\' get me wrong. I know that pedigree. Sired by Commando, Sired by Domino if I\'m not mistaken.

Its just too remote to be relevant.

I couldn\'t find fly by night, but I wouldn\'t spend much time looking that far back. Heck, If I wanted to, I could probably trace every Derby winner back to three stallions.

Remote pedigree is about as useful as a knife in a gun fight.

[Kasept]

CtC,

When it comes to dam lines, it DOES matter.

If it didn\'t, then how is La Troienne STILL producing classic winners? Dams pass the x-factor on to EVERY daughter, and daughters pass it 50% of the time to sons. It doesn\'t matter how far back you go when it comes to dam tail lines.

Fly By Night (1910) by Peter Pan (Commando), got Elope (Whisk Broom), Spectacular Bid\'s 6th dam...

She also got Flying Witch (Broomstick), dam of Mother Goose and Whichone. Mother Goose was the 5th dam of Cannonade.

Almahmoud, Cannonade\'s 3rd dam, got  Natalma (Native Dancer), Northern Dancer\'s dam.

Giacomo\'s branch reaches way back, but just further confirms the quality of this female family. Having produced Northern Dancer and Spectacular Bid should be evidence enough..

[Frost King]

Genetic probablities clearly show that once you get past the 3rd generation, all other bloodlines become irrelevant, to the production of offspring. The genetic influence is so weak, it is not worth considering. It only looks nice in the sales catalogue.

[Kingfisher]

X-factors?  Are you talking about X chromosomes or something else (mitochondrial DNA)?



Post Edited (05-12-05 04:45)

[Kasept]

KF,

X-factor here refers to Marianna Haun\'s theory of the chromosone for enlarged hearts. X-factor mares pass it along to all daughters and half of their sons.


http://www.premierpub.com/crossroads/xfactor/heart-1.htm

Here books(s):
http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0929346688/ref=sib_dp_pt/102-0879204-0170558#reader-link

[Kingfisher]

Kasept-

First, you have it backwards. If it is carried on the X chromosome, then a sire that possesses it would transmit it to all his daughters but to none of his sons, since the only sex chromosome a son would get from his sire would be the Y chromosome.

A mare that carries the gene, given that she has two X chromosomes, can have either one or two copies. If she has one copy, then 50% of her offspring will inherit her gene. If she has two copies, then all of her offspring will get one of her copies, and all of her sons would express this gene, since they have only one X chromosome.

Of course, all this supposes that the theory is true in the first place. I challenge you to give me a single citation from a reputable scientific journal that supports this theory. This is just dosage in another emperor\'s suit. The author appears to be the one who has done the research, but has published none of it except in a book she is selling. And the promo refers in an oblique way to some support from Dr. Fregin at Virginia Tech, but provides no details, and he has not published on this either.

While I am sure that there is good research to show that heart size may be related to racing ability, showing heritability is another thing entirely.

I\'d be greatly interested to see a reference with any data on the sex-linked heritability of heart size in horses.