Post-Derby Questions and Thoughts

[BitPlayer]

After the Derby, I\'m used to seeing a write-up that includes quotes from jockeys and trainers of all the entrants (usually in order of finish) regarding trips, how they came out of the race, etc.  Has anyone seen anything like that this year?

The blimp shots were awesome.  No excuse for blowing the ground loss here.  I\'m surprised ESPN didn\'t call on the blimp for the Cool Conductor-Mighty Military incident (or maybe they did and I missed it).

With regard to High Limit, in addition to the other factors I\'ve seen discussed (not having read everything that\'s been posted), I think there\'s a big difference between rating outside in a small field and rating inside during a stampede.  In general, some horses prefer to run outside horses, and this was High Limit\'s first experience on the inside.  As I posted last week, the archives show that horses on the inside (1W) on the first turn are less likely to run their races than those outside (particularly those 3W).  I don\'t think this year\'s Derby is going to change those stats.  (OK, so I took the 22/1 on High Limit; that doesn\'t make the point any less valid.)

Does this mean that Kiaran McLaughlin is not a \"supertrainer\"?

[jimbo66]

Been looking for the same comments.  They used to carry them on brisnet.com in the \"handicapper\'s edge\" column.  But not yet this year.  Maybe in tonight\'s version.

Speaking on Cool Conductor- Mighty Military, what did anybody think of that DQ.  I was \"put up\" that race, but to be honest didn\'t agree with the call.  I never saw a clear shot that showed it was CC that caused the incident.  Did they show it better on TV?

Interesting point on Kiaran McLaughlin.  Most \"lists\" I have seen include Kiaran McLaughlin on them, as far as \"move up\" trainers or \"super trainers\".

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- The question of both CA and AA running well while others didn\'t brings up the whole issue of why we need detention barns-- I\'m still back at Donna Barton saying AA had been taken to another stall to be \"bathed\". WE DON\'T KNOW-- and as tough as it is to deal with lots of horses being drugged, it will be even tougher if horses start running hot and cold.

I flew down to Kee sitting next to Migliore, and he told me the cameras have a blind spot going into and coming out of the turns where riders can get away with anything. It looked to me like that\'s where the foul happened-- funny thing is I thought I saw something live, but they didn\'t seem to want to look at the pan shot afterward. Either way, it helped.

[miff]

Jim,

Spend that Mighty Military money quick.I heard that Billy Mott said it was the worst call he was ever involved in.

Re Mc Laughlin, he has gone on some incredible winning streaks. I think Alldrugs is his vet.He\'s an honorary mention as a Supertrainer, IMO.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB wrote:

> The question of both CA and AA running well while others didn\'t
> brings up the whole issue of why we need detention barns-- I\'m
> still back at Donna Barton saying AA had been taken to another
> stall to be \"bathed\". WE DON\'T KNOW-- and as tough as it is to
> deal with lots of horses being drugged, it will be even tougher
> if horses start running hot and cold.

Not sure what the preceding means. Afleet Alex may have finished close, but \"running well\" is something else entirely. He figured on foundation and smallish top (+1.5 points on Sprint Top) to be least likely to bounce or at least the least likely to seriously regress and that certainly was the case for the Fab Four.

CA appeared to have run his race on a good part of the track and he overcame the most pertaining to pace.

There appear to be legitimate reasons for the poor performance of the key animals.

Bellamania - Pace Challenge/Adversity/Bounce
Greeley\'s  - Poor acclimation to track/Bounce
Bandini    - Freakazoid Washout/Bounce
Afleet     - Bounce/Trouble/Path?
High Limit - Injury
Wilko      - Bled
High Fly   - Pace/Distance
Noble Causeway - bumped/inside/distance
SunKing    - Distance / inside
Coin Silver- Wet track Specialist?
Flower Alley- Distance

Reconciling the result on these factors seems reasonable.

CA was a legit 3 horse that was one of the few to sit on and fire their best race.

[jimbo66]

CtC,

Those may be legitimate issues for you, but they aren\'t universally acclaimed, that is for sure.

Noble Causeway is extremely well bred for the distance.  That is not just my opinion, but also the opinions of all the pedigree experts that I read.  

The bad rail looks marginal to me.  Would like to hear other opinions on this.

Coin Silver didn\'t look like a wet track specialist to me.  He looked good on T-Graph BEFORE the Lexington.  

Flower Alley - Do you think his breeding was any worse than Funny Cide\'s?

SUn King - Not convinced distance is the problem.  I know his one turn races have been better, but he isn\'t necessarily bred like a one turn horse.

High Limit - Baloney on the injury.  They are running him back in the Preakness.  How injured could he have been?  If Frankel\'s horses cough once, he lays them off for 60 days.

Afleet Alex - Rewatch the replay.  Anybody that criticizes the ride Jeremy Rose gave him is off base.  I criticized him before the race but he gave that horse every chance to win.  The trip didn\'t beat him.  He made good decisions.  

Bellamy Road - The pace didn\'t beat this horse either.  He was not much closer to it than Closing ARgument.  Adversity and Bounce - Yep.

[Bally Ache]

The comments you\'re looking for are on MSNBC News (Sports)website, among other places.  they\'ve been there since yesterday.

I believe there\'s a comment for every horse.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jimbo66 wrote:

> CtC,
>
> Those may be legitimate issues for you, but they aren\'t
> universally acclaimed, that is for sure.
>
> Noble Causeway is extremely well bred for the distance.  That
> is not just my opinion, but also the opinions of all the
> pedigree experts that I read.

Its hard for me to sign off on a horse being distance bred soley on the basis of his sire. Giant\'s Causeway ran Tiznow game one race here. Does that make his get a sure thing at 10 marks?, especially when one of them is having trouble closing into a Horse in the Florida Derby that is part wrapped up and really does look bred a little lite for Classic distance?  Noble Causeway has a lot of Storm Cat and near Mr. Prospector. Thats hard to get real excited about in considering the hang. Storm Cat is an immediate turn off in most pedigrees for me. His mare was unraced but it gets good beyond her.
 
>
> The bad rail looks marginal to me.  Would like to hear other
> opinions on this.

They looked to be intentionally staying clear of it most of the day. Those that got down in there didn\'t appear to fare well

>
> Coin Silver didn\'t look like a wet track specialist to me.  He
> looked good on T-Graph BEFORE the Lexington.

Ok, lets say his performance was hard to factor. Still he was coming off a two point top two weeks prior.
 
>
> Flower Alley - Do you think his breeding was any worse than
> Funny Cide\'s?

Much worse. Funny Cide had a remarkable female side. Spectacular actually. and NO mr. prospector on the mare side which I truly despise

> SUn King - Not convinced distance is the problem.  I know his
> one turn races have been better, but he isn\'t necessarily bred
> like a one turn horse.

He is the only thing Charismatic has gotten.
The dam got one named Traitor that wanted to stop at a mile by my reckoning. That one was by Cryptoclearance. the dam sire wanted shorter ground. He could go on, but not with my money until he proves hes competitive with the better horses at two turns. That BC Juvy was very misleading he saved all the ground on a surface that was very quick inside. Zito likes him, so maybe you\'ll get 39-1 in the Preakness.


> High Limit - Baloney on the injury.  They are running him back
> in the Preakness.  How injured could he have been?

I\'ve read all kinds of reports he was grabbed in both legs and was dripping blood on the walk back to the stall.

> If
> Frankel\'s horses cough once, he lays them off for 60 days.
 
> Afleet Alex - Rewatch the replay.  Anybody that criticizes the
> ride Jeremy Rose gave him is off base.  I criticized him before
> the race but he gave that horse every chance to win.  The trip
> didn\'t beat him.  He made good decisions.

There were some issues. Probably most important among them a regression.
 
> Bellamy Road - The pace didn\'t beat this horse either.  He was
> not much closer to it than Closing ARgument.  Adversity and
> Bounce - Yep.

The pace was his adversity. He never had to look horses in the rump before. Even if he is capable of Neg 5\'s the headstrong type get to over striding and pressing. they want to cruise alone and I think this guy is like that. If he was rating he\'d of been 7 back. He didn\'t rate.

[BitPlayer]

Bally Ache -

Thank you.  For others, the link is:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7774642/

[Uncle Buck]

Bejerano said \"he (AH) was coming? He was running at the end?\" Huh? Not on the replay I watched 25 times, soon to be 30.

I noticed McKee said GG was coming to. What? Huh? These guys are in denial. The only one really coming got up...

Even if the race were 2 miles the aformentioned pigs wouldn\'t have sprouted wings...

[DeathBredon]

Rose making good decisions and AA getting a good trip are two different things. Rose went inside when AA made his run and had to check behind a wall of horses and wait for a whole -- whereas Giacomo seemed to get a clear run.  Switch trips, switch winners.  Happens in a lot of Derbs.

[Uncle Buck]

I thought Rose did fine. He actually made several ballsy moves which turned out well. He did get caught behind Spanish Horse Chstnut when that one started crying for his momma

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

DeathBredon, I felt the same way. Rose had taken so much heat for wide rides though you could hardly blame him. If he was told to save ground once for that race he heard it a thousand times. Inside just wasnt the place to be.