The Jerry Brown Strategy

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

After a review of the Thorograph selections for the Derby it would appear the TGJB strategy for the Derby distilled to this:

\"The four negative number horses lay over the field. Its likely that they will all regress, but unlikely that all will bounce to oblivion, so utilize all of them in your bets with the Frankel key so that you catch whichever of them regresses least\"

Decent strategy, but for the Frankel Factor.

Bobby Frankel: \"My horses ALMOST never bounce\".

In the very end I factored Bobby\'s horse as dangerous too. That wasn\'t lack of juice that stopped him. He just wasn\'t ready to pick up a foot.

[richiebee]

What happened to High Limit is what happens to most horses that have their races picked out by their owners. Again I reiterate, Frankel probably would have not run HL in the Derby after his Bluegrass; the Wests told him to.

I ignored the TG# given to HL in the BG. Visually, he looked to be staggering home.

[miff]

If you knew that HL regressed in the BG (as I felt), he was a toss. I actually had him sitting dead on 0 2 X .I tossed the entire BG field and still didn\'t come close.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

My intial impression of High Limit was O-2-X also.

It evolved to more than that for me, but it may have been O-2. Closing Arguments effort in the Derby would be hard to explain however on adding 2 more points to his Bluegrass.

High Limit was dreadful. He was the one horse in the race with decent figures that was an easy toss out. It was a struggle for me to even imagine a way for him to win this race.

His LA Derby was a decent performance at best. He couldn\'t cope with a 2nd string speed horse at 9F without staggering the last 1/8 of a mile. He\'s a decent horse. But how in God\'s name was this horse going to win with 2 second string horses setting a fast pace, a potential nightmare like Bellamy Road pressing him, and then a bunch of other Grade one pressers like Bandini, High Fly, etc... taking shots at him later -ALL AT 10F. This was the one horse I never even considered. Crist and Beyer had this one pegged.

[miff]

CtC said

\"It evolved to more than that for me, but it may have been O-2. Closing Arguments effort in the Derby would be hard to explain however on adding 2 more points to his Bluegrass\"


Adding two points in the BG would be meaningless the way the Derby ended up. Don\'t forget Giacomo, the 2nd slowest out of 20, got the money.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

classhandicapper wrote:


>Crist and Beyer had
> this one pegged.

High Limit did not lose that race on being outfooted by two faster horses and not handling 10 or even 9 marks. He was never in that race. (He was bumped early, perhaps like TenMostWanted he don\'tlike contact) Crist and Beyer were just as convinced Bellamania was the second coming and overlooked everything that said proceed with caution.

Its likely that before this season is out High Limit will prove to be as close to a 1st class animal as Bellamania.



Post Edited (05-08-05 12:52)

[bloodline bob]

CH -

you are exactly right.  It was hard to imagine a scenario where HL wins. But somehow he was the figure horse for Thorograph?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bloodline bob wrote:

> CH -
>
> you are exactly right.  It was hard to imagine a scenario where
> HL wins. But somehow he was the figure horse for Thorograph?

What about this as a proposition:

TGraph got it right on the Four Mega Threats and the horse best positioned on figure to take advantage if they faltered was High Limit?

That doesn\'t address pace issues of course, but TGraph discounts pace and scores often doing so.

He may not have handled the pace scenario Derby Day, but High Limit bumped for the first time in the Derby, don\'t lose track of that.

[miff]

CtC said,

\"TGraph got it right on the Four Mega Threats and the horse best positioned on figure to take advantage if they faltered was High Limit?\"


In this race, TG, like 99.9% of us, got ZERO right.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff i lost a lot of money on that race.

I dont like to do that, but rather than get mad i like to try and find out why so i dont do it again.

This is a tough race to figure. but to me bounce and pace tell the majority of the story. TGJB just posted again re: testing changing the results. I wish we could all count on that...but i\'m highly skeptical thats it.

[miff]

CtC,

I am not mad,(if you think that) but discussions on this board are sometimes too slanted to the home team(TG).There are MANY reasons why horses do or do not perform well besides those espoused by TG and I feel that such reasons deserve equal time.

The proliferation of negative figs is alarming to me since I make big bets and rely heavily on the TG product in my overall selection process.

If Jerry does not want opposing viewpoints, it\'s his call to make.I have  never put forward an unreasonble discusion point,imo.

CTC,

High Limit was either outrun a bit, got bumped or the intention was to rate a bit (I\'ll have to review the replay).

Watch a 1,000 races and tell my how often front runners that tire at shorter distances finish well beaten when they are outrun or asked to rate against higher quality stock. It happens all the time. High Limit was the easiest toss in the race PERIOD. It didn\'t matter if he got into a 4 way duel and then took pot shots in the middle of the race or whether he wound up behind horses for whatever reason, it was extremely difficult to imagine a scenario in which he could win this race (and many people felt the same way).

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

High Limit was mauled by Sun King. Both rear legs were injured one bleeding fairly well. The word was this type of nick causes horses to shut down almost immediately.

High Limit might have been too close to the pace to do anything late though, so I hear your point.



Post Edited (05-09-05 09:13)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff, i know youre serious.

The problem with that derby is more pace and bounce than figures. Tgraph certainly had the Fab Four figured right (That is being the fastest four) and High Limits race is a toss.