Derby Odds and post position

[MO]

Sort It Out - 50-1
Androm. Hero - 50-1
Sun King - 15-1
Noble Causeway - 12-1
Coin Silver - 12-1
High Limit - 12-1
Flower Alley - 20-1
Greater Good - 20-1
Greely - 15-1
Giacomo - 50-1
High Fly - 8-1
Afleet Alex 9-2
Span Chestnut - 50-1
Wilko - 20-1
Bandini - 6-1
Bellamy Road - 5-2
Dont Get Mad - 30-1
Closing Argument - 30-1
Going Wild - 50-1
Buzzards Bay - 20-1

[Silver Charm]

MO,

Give us the Real Odds.

YOURS!!!!

[bloodline bob]

wow the odds % add up to 143%.  don\'t they know how to do a line over there?
odds will be much higher.

[Silver Charm]

>don\'t they know how to do a line over there?

The answer is NO.

That is why I asked MO for his

Start with Sort it Out at 1000-1 and then work your way down.



Post Edited (05-04-05 18:30)

[miff]

Is there anything in racing more useless than the morning line?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Alzheimers, but the auxilliary gate starts with 15 correct?

Bandini - Apparently Bandini can bear in a little there from right out of the gate and hopefully not cause contact. Hard to see how he won\'t be wide. Interesting choice. Maybe Mr. Pletcher figures three, four wide is the way to go after than Bluegrass.

Afleet Alex - 12? That could cause wide as well. Why not 14 and have your right relatively clear? But then maybe Rose doesnt have to make traffic decisions from inside too....who knows.

High Limit - Is positioned inside all the other speed if he wants it. Very interesting.

Noble Causeway - Could lose the race on the lst turn. If its as hot as theorized maybe he can get away with some early trouble.

Wilko - 14 hole, why not.

Bellamania - The 16 hole? You gotta be kidding? two quick horses inside of him, several with speed, as well as 15 rivals total? This is a 2 and 3 hole kinda breaking horse and a notorious leaner inner. The rating experiment confirmed!!! O.k. the 14 and 15 were gone, but hes between them form outside in a big field. He better not miss a beat from there or its all outside BABY! Lots to ask on a big effort as well. Empire Faker anyone?

The rest look to have pulled decent holes with their picks. Zito in the 2,3,4 has got to be hoping his horses don\'t take each other out in the first left hand turn.

Silver Charm, what kind of Heads Up odds line do you make Sort it Out vs. Going Wild?



Post Edited (05-04-05 18:46)

[MO]

Silver Charm,

Been a while since I did a line and I don\'t have my tools any more but I would guesstimate something like this:

Bellamy Road 2-1
Afleet Alex - 3-1
Bandini 7-2
High Fly - 8-1
Greely\'s G. - 15-1
High Limit 15-1
Noble Causeway 20-1
Sun King 20-1
Buzzard\'s Bay - 30-1
Wilco 40-1
Coin Silver - 50-1
Flower Alley - 50-1
Greater Good - 50-1
Closing Argument 50-1
Giacomo 75-1
Dont Get Mad 100-1
Sort It Out 100-1
Andromeda\'s - 100-1
Going Wild 100-1
Spanish Chestnut 100-1