Belllamy Road to carry 326 pounds in the Derby

[jimbo66]

Anybody catch the transcipts of Andy Beyer\'s chat last night on DRF?  If so, you can downgrade Bellamy Road\'s chances quite a bit.  Beyer thins BR is the best of his generation and that we will see \"something special\" on Saturday.  He also is downgrading all horses that have early speed and who will be with Bellamy Road early.  He said his first throwout is High Limit.  

Based on his track record of never having picked a winner in the Derby, the extra weight that Bellamy will carry with Beyer on his back, is probably too much to overcome.

I might have to put a saver on his \"first throwout\", High Limit.....

[davidrex]

     Actualy beyer has picked a winner in print and then on tv. derby day decides to go w/a worthless nag that ran up the track....his reasoning sounded like something I often end up doing[picking a horse to do the impossible with the hope and convition that I alone had him!]

PARTYpokerON!

[Bally Ache]

I enjoyed his books and enjoy his columns.  But, as a handicapper, he\'s just another gallon of water over Niagara Falls.

He considered Smarty a toss last year.  His worst mistake, for those old enough to remember, he kept insisting even after the Triple Crown, that Seattle Slew was overrated.

I tend to agree with his logic about High Limit.

If High Limit couldn\'t cope with Spanish Chestnut going 9F, how is he going to cope with Spanish Chestnut, Going Wild, and BR going 10F with a much deeper and talented field taking pot shots late.

I happen to think HL ran a pretty good race in the BG (all things considered). I also think Frankel can get a little more out of him considering how lightly raced he is and this being 3rd off the layoff. I just think this is a terrible spot for him. He\'s either going to have to do something he\'s never done before (rate and pick up horses) or hope the other quality speeds get screwed at the start or don\'t go fast early.

[davidrex]

     His 2nd biggest goof was getting old and frumpy.

     Re-read his 50grand book and feel the adrenilin flowing...today he\'s just an old school advocate on many of racings so called traditions.

     But he\'s still a hero of mine and I\'ll always think of him and his litle buddy fighting thru the adversaries they faced.(What kind of a mother lets their son leave such a fine school to bet on horses for a living?!)

PARTYpokerON!

[miff]

You can agree with Beyer or not, but if you\'ve been around long enough you must know that the addition of Beyers\' figs to DRF had a substantial impact on the odds board.

Many years ago I was a TG sheet player with a hugh edge over most traditional non figure using horse players.That edge has been eroding away over the past 5 years or so because of Beyers and increased use of sheets/speed figs by many.

[davidrex]

     Miff...you are so right..

     Years ago Friedman would own up to same idealogy...even so far as to say that there were only 1 or2 plays per day.

     Thank g-d brown hasn\'t given in to the rinkly chin syndrome...some good stuff in these here sheets and his graph is the most accurate and easiest to form an opinion with.

     I know I know ..some of that crap he imports from equi-base is trash and it is taking him forever to impliment his own equations(holding back on us jerr?)but if you know of a better package...then fess up.

     I do not own stock in this co. and thank g-d brown isn\'t dating any of my daughters.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

\"An inexperienced jockey on a horse who has to come from far behind is not what you want. Rose certainly didnt distinguish himself in the Breeders\' Cup. I think the owners and trainer would probably have replaced him if a big star had been available.\"

Andy what makes you think Alex will be \"far\" behind. Are you aware he layed 3.75 lengths behind the Ark pace and had iffectively seized the lead at the 6 furlong mark?

\"A lot of people have asked about the legitimacy of the fig, (Bellamania\'s Wood) and we of course took a hard look at it. It was ambiguous in the sense that there was only one 1 1/8-mile race on the Aqueduct card. Nevertheless, while he ran his big race, none of the horses behind him improved on any of their recent figures, and you\'d expect them to do so in a big race for which all the trainers have been pointing. So I would say, if the figure is at all off, it is off by being too low.\"

Beyersese: Ambiguous = He could have run really, really fast.

Andy certainly got the \"failure of the (Wood) competition to improve\" part right. But how does that equate to a proposition that \"If the figure is off, it is off by being too slow?\" What about this Andy, What if the horses behind Bellamania ran horribly? Still Think Bellamania may have run a 125?.

\"The track was super-fast, but being fast doesn\'t necessarily make it speed-biased. I think the race was completely legit.\"

Andy, you just called it \"ambiguous\". Theres people here about to wager money, some significantly. Was the Wood Completely Legit or was it Ambiguous?

\"If you\'re a class-oriented handicapper, you\'d say he\'d (Wilko) already won at this level in the Breeders\' Cup. He\'s got a solid pedigree for the distance and the right style.\"

Andrew, assuming his style is right for the race, did you realize he was 3.75 lengths behind the pace at the first call in the Santa Anita Derby? Thats the same distance Afleet Alex rated yet you called that one too far back? Additionally, what makes you think his pedigree is solid for the distance?

\"When I watched the Blue Grass I thought--as most people surely did--that it looked like an impressive race. But when you analyze it closely it wasn\'t. The race was loaded with front-running types, and Bandini was able to stalk them. When the leaders collapsed, he went past, but the final eighth of a mile was run in 13 2/5 seconds, so he wasn\'t exactly flying.\"

Andini, the speed in the Bluegrass was foreseeable. Are you aware that by all appearances a significant anti inside bias existed and that High limit, though already beaten, was down inside and jumping tracks during the stretch run? Granted the finishing fraction wasn\'t scalding, but aren\'t factoring slow surfaces what speed figures are all about? Additionally, how did Peace Rules come home in the 2003 Bluegrass?

\" Sun King is an interesting longshot on a number of grounds. He\'s got the proper profile for the Derby--a solid foundation at 2 and 3 prep races this year. He can finish. He\'s got Zito. And his disappointing effort in the Blue Grass could be part of the long tradition of horses running lousy in the Blue Grass and then coming to Churchill and running big.\"

\"He can finish\" Andrewella? What makes you think that? The Breeders Cup Juvenile? The Bluegrass or the one turn Hallandale race?

\"Despite his solid Illinois Derby number, no. I still put a lot of stock in the lessons of history about the overall preparation a horse needs, and Greeley\'s Galaxy has two strikes against him: he didn\'t start as a 2-year-old, and he has only 4 career starts. Moreover, he had a fairly soft trip beating a weak field in Illinois.\"

Andy, but for the two year old start voodoo, I would have sworn you were almost talking about Bellamania. Would you concede that whatever foundation Greeley has its recent, honest and progressive?

\"I think Bellamy Road is going to confirm the legitimacy of that 120 figure, that he has going to deliver an overpowering performance, and that by Saturday night he will be hailed as the sport\'s new superstar.\"

Andy, if Bellamania does \"confirm\" the legitimacy of a 120 Beyer, who will he be confirming it with?

\"I would be against any of the speed horses who are going to be vying with Bellamy Road, and would emphasize horses who can finish. You can\'t knock Afleet Alex. Sun King has a shot. I\'d be looking at the clunker-uppers like Noble Causeway or Wilko rather than more highly regarded speed types like Bandini and High Lmit.\"

Andy, you already have knocked Afleet Alex, but if its bad for the speed horses to run with Bellamania, why isn\'t it bad for Bellamania to run with the speed horses? Especially in consideration of Bellamania\'s need for the lead in his past performances and his problems with losing it?

Andy walking, andy tired
Andy take a little snooze
Tie him up when hes fast asleep
Send him on a pleasant cruise
When he wakes up on the sea
He sure to think of me and you
He\'ll think about paint and he\'ll think about glue
What a jolly boring thing to do

Andy Beyer looks a scream
Hang him on my wall
Andy Beyer, silver screen
Can\'t tell them apart at all

p.s. Thanx for the additional Hype.

[Ill-bred]

Nice David Bowie reference!

[jimbo66]

Clown,

Afleet Alex will be 10 lengths off the pace in the Derby and will need to negotiate a trip.  

I would have thought a \"pace handicapper\" like yourself would realize that.  The Arkansas Derby had the slowest pace figure of any of the major preps, that is why AA was 3.75 off the lead.

That said, there is nothing wrong with being 10 lengths off a hot pace, as long as Rose negotiates a hot pace.

If AA is only 3 lengths off the lead in the Derby that would actually be a bad thing for him, it probably means the pace is slow and Bellamy will be hard to beat if he gets to the half in 47.

[bloodline bob]

Beyer in today\'s form seems to conclude that the five \"2 prep\" horses aren\'t seasoned enough to win.  He\'s right. But then he reverses course and says since they are so numerous one of them will probably win. But if Afleet Alex wins he\'ll be saying I told you so.

Great article but then he got weak in the knees at the end.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Without blowing Afleet Alex\'s horn. He is push button Rateable and may be 10 lengths back early, but 10 lengths back in 6th or 7th and probably running very close to Wilko. He was before.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bloodline bob wrote:

> Beyer in today\'s form seems to conclude that the five \"2 prep\"
> horses aren\'t seasoned enough to win.  He\'s right. But then he
> reverses course and says since they are so numerous one of them
> will probably win. But if Afleet Alex wins he\'ll be saying I
> told you so.
>
> Great article but then he got weak in the knees at the end.
>

That article was mind numbing. Beyer wrote a whole page on the importance of preps and at the very end said the odds were that a horse would win the race overcoming all the historical data, without mentioning Bellamania who he said last night would win the Derby on, you guessed it, Two Preps. He then fell over on himself and covered that prediction with some lip service to Afleet Alex falling within the guidelines.

Well, the guidelines are Voodoo and Zito said it best. The reason the horses are being brought to the Derby on light campaigns is that they can\'t stand training and racing at the level of effort being massaged out of them in the new era. Its certainly possible that Bellamania would have won the Derby on April 9th. Will he win it on May 7th?

[Tim25]

Jerry why do you let ctc continue to take up space on this board. With all the great information and insightful comments thats available here, there is really no room for this jerk. His posts to me are like someone scratching on a blackboard. We are 3 days from the derby and there is no better place to get information from than here. Can\'t you just ban him for the next 3 days.

[gowand]

Tim,
   Why would you want to ban CTC.  If you read all of his derby posts on the board you can find some support for any horse you like(even \"Bellamania\") and some disparaging comments about any horse you don\'t like.  Of course, don\'t read too closely because you will also read disparaging comments about any horse you like and positive comments about any horse you don\'t like.  If you think he is annoying just think haw Andy Beyer feels.