Belllamy Road to carry 326 pounds in the Derby

[TGJB]

What the hell is a rinkly chin syndrome? And I\'ve got bad news about your daughter(s)...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Actually the discussion of horses liked has been kept to a minimum. We have a pretty good idea where the horses are going to break from now, but there could be a wrinkle or two thrown in at the last minute. We\'ll know in about 90 minutes.

Anyone can pick a Kentucky Derby favorite and sometimes you can even win with one. If Andy Beyer had been on favorites since 1973 he\'d of won quite a few Kentucky Derbies. Whether he\'d have a positive R.O.I. or not is debateable. He\'s on the favorite this year, well, maybe until that last article in the online DRF anyway. That one was hard to digest.

Whats been discussed is the reliability of the figures this year in consideration of some factually challenging races. Theres been results in key prep races to think that the horses behind the winners may have fallen off form. Before handicappers can even begin to decide where horses are going they have to be reasonably certain they know where they\'ve been. Bluegrass day there is a theorized bias to factor. In regard to that bias, issues exist pertaining to how High Limit performed as compared to his past efforts. Theres a point where High Limits head dips late stretch and where momentum appears to be more quickly dissipated and where Bandini signifcantly increases his lead. Sun King, racing wide throughout and who languished in that race is seen galloping with Bandini post wire. High Limit is out of view. What should handicappers make of that all that, the various factors considered?

Then theres the Wood. Obviously an impressive winner. How fast was that track by that race however? The fastest it has ever been? Even Beyer said it was extremely fast. What if thats an understatement? At this point with the post race knowledge gained, does anyone really think the other horses in the Wood came close to pairing their previous efforts? If someone does state the case for it. Most crashed and burned. Its merely a question of survivors or how bad they X\'d. For some X\'s are hard to figure. Personally, I have no way to really calculate an X.

They are both questionable races, but theres enough evidence to believe the Bluegrass is more ascertainable than the Wood.

And that doesnt even address the race Derby Day.

[HP]

Ascertainable?  What do you find more ascertainable?  This is like a Dead Sea Scroll.  I need a translator.  

HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

 HP wrote:

> Ascertainable?  What do you find more ascertainable?  This is
> like a Dead Sea Scroll.  I need a translator.  
>
> HP

Its a belief that TGraph has identified a tool on Frankel that is hard to refute. His get fast early and stay in their form/speed niche. Additionally, TGJB stated if you take Bandinis jump out of the race is it so hard to believe High Limit beat that field like he did? Additionally, pre Bluegrass what were Sun Kings two turn efforts? If you discounted his wide trip effort a couple points on aiding bias to High Limit is it in line with his previous two turn efforts? If you accept that an anti inside bias existed, the race becomes much easier to digest.

The Wood stands alone.

[HP]

As easy to digest as your posts, Chuckles!  HP

[davidrex]

     While its true ctc hedges in all the material he writes...he still comes up with more pertinent info. than all of us stacked end to end.

     Why the hell he writes a novella almost every post...is his business...but he does come up with some gems!

     For those not yet afflicted with rinkly chin syndrome....Its that turkey like growth that starts forming on your neck when you reach a certain age.(sometimes causing a mentality driven by familiarity)old age to everyone else!

     And while I\'m at it ctc isn\'t the only one sitting on a fence...everyone of you opinionated degenerates is hesitant to step up to the plate

     It is now p.p. time get off your duff and be counted!


     PARTYpokerON!

[Bally Ache]

The race is still 71 hrs away.  We could all change our minds several times between now and then.

[davidrex]

     NEW RULE!

horse aficionados are hereby permitted to favor a single runner in major events AND change their pick any time before post.

this posturing can and will rid those of us that are smite with superstition and embarrassment

I\'ll go first...Afleet Alex to win the Kentuuuuuckyyyy DDDDerrrrbbyyy.that wasn\'t so bad ...and I feel so much better!!

Thank you DR. Phil..

[jbelfior]

CH--


You may get 15-1 to find out if HIGH LIMIT can relax and pick up. Fractions in the the Delaware mile race and in Louisiana clearly indicate he is not a runaway train.

Frankel did very little with him before the BG...several mild breezes in one month.

Besides, what better angle than the fact that both BEYER and CRIST hate him.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Bally Ache]

I read this morning that Frankel is upset with Dominguez.  Not only don\'t Beyer & Crist like the horse, apparently Dominguez isn\'t too enamored of his chances either.

Frankel threatens to change jocks.  Hope he does.  It would be a stupid thing to do

[miff]

Dominquez must know what others apparently do not. HL surrendered meekly to Bandini after a PERFECT trip chasing a warm pace,while drifting inside brushing the rail.He paired(rags too, 4\'s),and his prior loose lead effort on a speed favoring track was unimpressive.

This is 10f, he won\'t get that same perfect trip and faces several faster horses with strong late runs.Unimaginable that HL hits the board unless the fast ones implode.

Joe B,

Add me to the list with Beyer , Christ, et al.

[richiebee]

I have been anti HL from the start. Not enough seasoning, owner entered etc. Called him a traffic factor in the last 1/4, meaning the contenders will have to weave around him.

There\'s one authority who likes him to run a big one, and as I recall, he will be well rewarded in the futures if he does...

[jbelfior]

Miff---

Why would you ever want to be on any list with those two??

Seriously speaking...I think HL is too talented to be disregarded the way he has. I do not agree pace was warm. ...:46 3/5, 1:10 2/5 is motoring at Keenland going a 1 1/8th. As mentioned before, several  breezes between the La. Drby and the BG indicated Frankel\'s intentions.

The BG was one huge workout.


He\'s already proven he\'s better than 80% of this field. So what\'s wrong with taking 15-1 with that in mind.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

Joe,

I\'ll pass on HL going 10F with other speeds in the race. If he were trained by anyone other than Frankel (or Pletcher) I wouldn\'t have even wasted the time thinking about it a little bit. Get me 25-1 and then we can talk. :-)



Post Edited (05-05-05 14:33)

[jbelfior]

CH--


Can\'t get you 25-1. If you don\'t like him, what\'s the difference if he\'s 15 or 25 (besides 10)?


Good Luck,
Joe B.