Westchester Handicap - Race 8 at Belmont

[jimbo66]

Anybody out there look at the Westchester Handicap at Belmont tomorrow?  If the morning line odds are close, there looks to be value in the race to me.  

Value Plus is 9-5 on the ML and although his top is -2, he has reacted in the past when he has run a big race and also seems to run his big races down in Florida.  I think expecting him to run back to his -2 would be a mistake.

Gygistar is 2-1 on the ML and is a nice horse, who is pretty consistent.  He runs well at Belmont, but his top is -1.5, which is no faster than Unforgettable Max, who is 6-1 on the ML.  Plus, with the weight concession, MAx is actually faster.

Max comes out of two races where he didn\'t show his customary early speed.  Could be a sign he is going off form, but it could be because he was racing both times against Don Six, who might be the fastest 4 furlong horse in the game right now.  Max has run a negative 1.5 and gets weight from both Gygistar and Value Plus.  His best races have been run where he can be near or on the lead, which could/should be the case tomorrow.  With Alvarado as the jockey, off the two races that appear \"sub-par\", you should get a square price.  5 or 6 to 1 might be reasonable and to me a good gamble on a horse who is weight adjusted, as fast as the two favorites.

[mbeychok]

Not that this has anything to do with tomorrow\'s Westchester but has anyone noticed that Unforgettable Max and Afleet Alex are full brothers.  FYI.

[Michael D.]

jim,
i don\'t like the race, but i think it sets up for gyg. 3 for 5 at bel, 2 for 4 at 1m. castellano should sit just off the pace and have something left for the drive. odds the obvious problem. don\'t know what to think of UM to be honest.

[jimbo66]

You could be right Michael.  I fear Gygistar more than the Pletcher horse.  

One of the speeds is scratched (Bahama John).  Gives MAx a shot to make the lead out of the gate.

I really liked Max yesterday, but losing confidence today.  Been a while between scores...........

[miff]

Jim,

\"I really liked Max yesterday, but losing confidence today. Been a while between scores...........\"


Back up when you are losing,charge when you are hot. Suckers do just the opposite.

[Michael D.]

5/2 on that guy was rather generous

.....

1:33.2 five wide - wow!



Post Edited (05-04-05 17:07)

[jimbo66]

I thought so too Michael.

Good advice Miff. Words that I almost never follow.  

I did this time.  

Good luck