Probable Derby Odds

[Holybull]

I\'m a new poster to the board. Here is what I think the odds will look like on Saturday.  Anyone have any strong objections?  If a horse is way off, then another must be way off in the other direction of course. Doesn\'t matter which horse you like, you should get a square price.

Bellamy Road  3-1
Afleet Alex  7-2
Bandini 9-2
High Fly  9-1
High Limit  14-1
Noble Causeway 15-1
Wilco  17-1
Sun King  18-1
Greeley\'s Galaxy  20-1
Flower Alley  30-1
Greater Good 30-1
Coin Silver  40-1
Buzzard\'s Bay  45-1
Andromada\'s Hero 50-1
Don\'t Get Mad  50-1
Spanish Chestnut, Going Wild, Sort
It Out  >50-1
Giacomo, Closing Argument >80-1

[xichibanx]

No, strong objections but I think Bellamy Road could be shorter. (He\'s 5/4 Offshore).

Giacomo, Closing Argument >80-1 will be shorter than 80/1.  Those two will be closer to 30-1 I think.  SC and GW I think will be the longest shots.  Don\'t Get Mad will be bet some but not a ton, 50/1 may be high.  

On everything else I think your in the ballpark.

xichibanx

[Michael D.]

x,
BM is 7-2 offshore.

holybull,
think you are very close with the lines.

[jimbo66]

Bellamy is available at 3-1 or better in all of the accounts that i bet in.  5-4 would be ridiculous.

Holy Bull,

Your odds line is not much different than mine (that and $4.00 gets you a Starbucks coffee)

I have Bandini around 6-1, High Limit a little lower, Noble Causeway a little lower, Wilko much higher, Sun King a little lower.

[dlf]

Greeley\'s Galaxy 20-1?! I was planning on tossing him, but at that price, I\'d have to reconsider.

[davidrex]

     Upset that A/Alex would go off at a shorter price than S/Jones did last year.

     W/owner of Oaklawn supposedly hedging his bonus w/huge win ticket last year,why would any horse be that short[excluding B.R.]?

     The hype died down when J.R. got off him,Rose knows but only subtracts from equation.[Ronnie Franklin would be a perfect fit.]

     Why does an old fool like me expect 6-1 or better?

     Seriously though...what could cause this animal to be an underlay in a 20 horse field?

PARTYpokerON !

[MO]

Anything over 3-1 on AA is a gift. I think he will destroy this field, connections not withstanding.

[Saddlecloth]

Pinnacle has Bellamy at 2.43/1 for future, has to start, so that means he will be around 2/1 on track with the take.

[jimbo66]

Davidrix,

Are you reading all the stuff on bloodhorse.com, drf.com, and thoroughbredtimes.com?

Plenty of positive reports about Afleet Alex.  Most agile horse, most athletic horse, brilliant workouts, done nothing wrong all week, etc.etc.  

Those are just the latest things about the horse.  What about the past performances?  He is the only one of the 4 \"negative number\" horses that had nice figures as a two year old, so his progression this year is not huge and some would theorize that he is much less likely to bounce.  If you throw out the race at Oaklawn where he was sick, he is BY FAR the most consistent performer in the race, racing consistently in top graded stakes and always right there.  

On Beyer figures (which most of the betting public uses), Bellamy Road is a \"one race wonder\".  Never had a triple digit beyer until the Wood, and thus looks like a huge bounce candidate.  T-Graph has the race before the Wood very fast, so he looks better on their figures, but T-Graph\'s market share is not enough to over-ride how Bellamy looks on the Beyer figures.

If John Velasquez was still on the horse, he would be the favorite, I think.  And he still could be the favorite, although I have him at 9-2.

Would be pretty surprised to see him go off at 6-1 or better as you are looking for.  Who will they bet in leiu of him to drive his price up?  Not Bandini.  He won\'t be shorter than AA.  And Bellamy won\'t be bet down below 5-2, I wouldn\'t think.

[davidrex]

     Please don\'t talk up A/Alex....let B/R be the wise guy horse this year...6/1 is a square deal for a horse w/out much early lick[that just may be a blessing this year].

     So lets all get behind B.R. and drive his payout down to 1/1 and we all cash w/Alex!

[jimbo66]

Saddlecloth,

It isn\'t that simple.  Pinnacle is pretty good, but they can\'t predict the final odds much better than the rest of us.

They took a lot of action on Bellamy, as did many sportsbooks after the Wood, so the price is pretty low.

Smarty Jones was available there at 6-1 the night befor the race.  He didn\'t go at that price.

Can\'t see 2-1 on Bellamy.

[spa]

Chapter and verse....it\'s Afleet Alex at the wire, with Wilco second........

[xichibanx]

At wsex.com a site that someone here mentioned the other day has him at 5/4.  That is why I referenced it.

xichibanx

[mikemd]

i think the top three favorites will come out something like:

bellamy road (2/1 - 5/2)
bandini (4/1 - 9/2)
afleet alex (5/1 - 6/1)

[davidrex]

     mikemd,

like the way you think!

hype those other two up and let alex slip in under the radar.