Big Figure - Outside Bias - How to hancle?

[jimbo66]

I could have called this post/question, \"How to handle Bandini in the Derby\".

Here is the dillemna for me (and I guess a lot of us).

Let\'s the take the -3.25 as the figure and not question it.  We have previously discussed the BlueGrass and debated it, but for this discussion, lets agree the figure is accurate.  We all realize the figure is so much better than his Beyer because of all the ground loss on both turns.  

However, most people (jerry included), have identified a bad rail at Keenland that day and as such, being outside was not bad.

So, we have a horse who ran a really big figure on T-Graph, because of ground loss, on a track that favored the outside paths that he ran on.

So how do you reconcile the two facts (ground loss vs outside bias) when you handicap the Derby?

What is everybody else doing?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tough call...no precise science to it. Sometimes a single path wide can benefit a horse far more than the lengths lost on wide.

My inclination would be to figure the comparative wide between High Limit and Bandini, factor Bandini\'s wide against high limit (no need its already in the figure) and then discount Bandinis margin by the number of lengths you think he benefitted by being wide. However benefitting lengths have to be calculated for the field. It was a nightmare race, there was more to the result than an anti rail bias. There was a speed bias as well on a slow track. Horrible Surface. They need to raze it.

Theres been some funky freakish results this year, especially in the final preps. Whoever interprets them accurately will have an advantage at the windows.