Derby Trial Madness

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Wow, what a race!

Initially I thought only one of 3 could win. But after reviewing it closely, I\'m not sure you can exclude any. Certainly from the money.

Don\'t Get Mad - is a very interesting horse here. He gets to cut back to one turn which seems to be his preferred course. He gets to eyeball them all from the outside hole which is a plus with his running style in my opinion and also a scenario that worked twice well for him at CD in the past. They are taking him off lasix for the race and his last two on lasix were shakey. Whether it was the juice or not is debateable.

Big Top Cat - could finally be on the improve. He\'s got one major point going for him. He\'s quick. Maybe the quickest of these and that and the one turn could play to his benefit. I think they\'ll wear him down late, but wouldn\'t be surprised if Lukas got a little more out of him in this spot. I think he\'s a one turn horse. Theres no Lost in the Fog in this race.

Santana Springs - Whats not to like? Since T Graph got involved hes run extremely well twice with blinkers. The experiment without looked to set him back slightly so he\'s got them on. He\'s got a good trainer.  He handled a horse last (Around the Cape) that had handled him large prior. Looks like the blinkers helped to me. He laid a little closer to the pace last and got beat by a good horse. Is TGraphs client maybe taking advantage of White Mercedes? I suppose bounce has to be the fear, but the horse has never really bounced. He bled at Arlington.

Vicarage - Horror trip last. I\'m tossing it. Has a nice O-X pattern going. I\'ll be surprised if he doesnt toss a good one here.

Miracle Man - More a question of what has he beat I think. Big wins at Keeneland don\'t hold much stock with me. Especially in 1:26, which means the next closest horse ran about a 1:28...whoa doggies!

Ultimate - got handled by around the cape in his first. STill his big figure win is a maiden race and I discount those. He has been bet to death and that TP stakes was not a bad race. It is Zito. It is Kentucky. Tough Call.

Crimson Stag - Still has not moved past his 2yo top. I would think a 2 point move is not unreasonable in the circumstances. His DeD race was against crap in all likelihood, but that is not an easy track to win on as he did. I\'m tossing the turf race and put little stock in the Keeneland blow out. He did beat Razor by .5, a horse Santana beat by 2. Big Balloon chance, especially at 15-1 plus. Giving weight and slower figures is a concern. I just think hes poised to run well is all.

Gallarado - Like this horse the least. Since it is Baffert, he\'ll probably win.

What a race.



Post Edited (04-30-05 10:59)

CTC,

IMO, Don\'t Get Mad has had an excuse in  last 3 races. This might be the first time he\'s going to get a chance to show how good he actually is in quite awhile.

The SA Derby was slow paced and he was way in the back.

The San Felipe was run over a rolled wet fast track that looked to be playing to speed.

The San Vincente was a slow paced sprint and he closed very strongly in a fast final 1/8.

Unfortunately, there may not be much value betting on him even though I\'m pretty sure he\'s better than his figures make him look. He\'s an oddity because the CA stakes horses are weak, but he is better than he looks within that group.    

Vicarage\'s last race is a total toss out. The pace of the Fl Derby was too quick for him. He got hung out wide and was used hard to stay in contention. Plus he\'s no 9F horse at this time. The track/pace carried him in the LA Derby. I think he\'s more of 7F horse than a miler, but this race should be within his range.  

Miracle man prompted a reasonably quick pace and can probably run a little faster than it looks under more moderate conditions. I like undefeated horses.

Santana Strings last race was very fast, but I think there\'s at least some chance he prefers running shorter distances like 6F. If he does stretch out well, he\'ll be tough to beat off his last.

Ultimate was also used early in his last and is not bad.

Big Top Cat has some good races, but may also prefer 6F-7F more than 8F.  

The problem with this race is that the horses most likely to get bet by the public (Vicarage and Don\'t Get Mad) had legitimate excuses for their recent \"dull looking\" and slow performances. So it\'s probably going to be tough to bet on them or against them unless you can find another quality horse perfectly suited to the distance etc... I don\'t see any obvious candidates.



Post Edited (04-30-05 14:56)

[NoCarolinaTony]

As stated ealier the track was playing very slow that day at KEE for MM. DRF Variant was a 23.This is the test of the horses class, but from what I\'ve seen so far this horse fits well here. Another plus is MM won in his first race on this surface. Im Boxing in exacata\'s with Vicarage and with Santana Strings. Big Top Cat sets the pace and folds as usual setting it up for close up presser types IMO.

The horse gets tested for class today but worth the value play(8-10/1) you\'ll probably get considering who else is entered.  If winning will key him in tri\'s on top of Vic,SS,BTC & possibly DGM Also 2 for 2 at CD)

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Crimson Tag is out of Derby Trial

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well, I\'m not entirely displeased to hear that. I was going to hook him up underneath and apparently he wasn\'t ready for the improved effort it was gonna take to land him a piece.

I guess I\'m down to the top four now. Its gonna be a question of odds.

I believe Big Top Cat has the best chance to run on improved race on being advantaged in the spot. I make him 30% to win the race.

Depending upon the track I like Vicarage second best on some consistent low numbers, excuse and pattern. I have some doubts about his ability to run on with a fair track under him, but i make him about 25% to win the race.

Don\'t get mad has run no faster than Big Top Cat and still hasn\'t paired his 2YO top, but circumstances are similarly breaking his way this race and I think he\'s gonna move forward here. I make him about 20% to win.

Santana Springs has done nothing wrong, but I do get the sense he may prefer 6 marks and hes been a little weaker at 7.  This race is 8 and I make his winning chance at about 15%.

Big Top Cat 5-2
Vicarage 3-1
Dont Get Mad 4-1
Santana Springs 7-1

The Zito and Hennig horses have a chance, especially for the money, but i\'m discounting them almost entirely for the win. I\'d want 20-1 on them and dont\' think I\'ll see it.



Post Edited (04-30-05 13:17)

I haven\'t been watching all the races at CD, but I just scanned the charts. It looks to me like the inside is certainly no advantage today.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I can\'t discern a confirmed anti rail bias, but inside may not be ideal. I do think Big Top is fast enough to clear and place himself a path off it. Should be a good race.

Decent odds on the 1, 3 and 5

They are pounding that miracle man horse. Its interesting he wasnt pounded his first two races.



Post Edited (04-30-05 17:27)

I think Don\'t Get Mad had some difficult trips in CA and will run better today than his recent figures suggest, but 3-2 seems a little silly on the low side. There\'s some value in this race somewhere. I just wish I knew where. I think they\'re all a little suspect for one reason or another.

Zito just said he\'s sending Ultimate (on ESPN). A good pace to run at seems even more assured.

If Santana Strings is as effective at 8F as he was at 6F, plus sits off the pace, he could get a good closing trip (along with the favorite) and be right there at a price.



Post Edited (04-30-05 17:40)

[Michael D.]

hoping gallardo can improve a bit on the \"5\" last, maybe to the \"2\" or \"3\" lvl... across the board for baffert at huge odds.

[Michael D.]

i\'ll take that..... a bunch of cheap speed there.

Well he finally got a good pace and honest racetrack to run at and now we know how he can run. This price was a little silly though.

[Michael D.]

coming off the wet fast SA track angle is a good one. both gallardo and DGM had two races over that surface. tough to close on that track.

Michael,

I hope you had the exacta good.

The pace was very lively, but I think part of the result was just that most of these horses were highly suspect at 8F (that goes double when they are used early). A few of them fell apart.

I see that the winner also drifted up to 5-2 from 3-2. That was still too short for me to get involved. I\'m just glad I understood that his CA races weren\'t nearly as bad as they looked even though that batch of horses is not all that great.



Post Edited (04-30-05 18:01)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Interesting race. Not a bad perfecta with Baffert in second...lol

I blew the pace and lost.

[Michael D.]

by big bet was across the board on gallardo. nice prices there. i have the exacta small and no tri. i kind of blew it there. 1:36 flat - not bad. gallardo was pretty wide. i guess he might have improved to the \"2\" or \"3\" lvl?



Post Edited (04-30-05 18:03)