Developing a Strategy for the Derby

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Even with Rockport Harbor out, once again the Kentucky Derby is looking like the NHRA top fuel elimination finals.

Spanish Chestnut looks to be going and despite the miscalucated pace figures on this horse, he can motor and if he breaks well motor he will.

Going Wild is a horse that wants a front end trip. He finally got the lead from outside Lexington day but he was too off form and too used up to do much once he had it. Look for a much improved effort Derby day and don\'t be surprised if Lukas tries to seize the pace with him.

High Limit has one style and adding blinkers its only going to be embellished.

Bellamy Road is also a horse that has known one pace tactic. Its going to be very interesting Derby day to find out if he can rate without being discouraged. Or if they send him and he can\'t overtake the others....absolutely intriguing.

Consolidator will be forwardly placed if he\'s capable of it. His first work at Churchill was not inspiring so we\'ll see.

So whats the bet?  Everyone thinks that Bellamy may be the second coming and that he has the highest figure for a 3 year old ever. I don\'t, however I\'m not gonna let him beat me without a buck riding on his nose in a Partial Tri Wheel. I\'m not gonna spend much on this. Its just a saver in case he freaks. My theory is this horse wins freakish or that he runs out and my major bet will be to beat him. This is the highest big number Derby ever and theres others that have more reliable figs in my estimation. Though I do believe Bellamy is a good horse. He\'s gonna have a heart attack when he sees what Derby Day brung him though....lol

CtC

[NoCarolinaTony]

Ctc,

If you have Race replays it might be intersting to see the Alcibiades Race at KEEas a 2yo as  BR vs Consolidator raced  him head to head all the way to the top of the stretch on the outside and drew off. However, in his Last race Scrappy T and the Lukas Horse raced him to the 3 qtrs and he just drew off.

Interesting to watch that 2yo Race It doesnt mean he didn\'t correct the problem
with maturity. Also worth noting is that he wore front bandages that day.

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tony, I do know that Jerry Bailey thinks Bellamy is going to get to the lead. I respect his handicapping ability, but I\'d have to ask him why he was anywhere near the rail with Mr. Sword in the Bluegrass and why he had Birdstone near the rail in the Lanes End last year.

Bellamy has a good sustained turn of foot, but I\'m betting hes not exceptionally quick. The best example of it in my opinion is the second quarter in the Gulfstream race. He ran a really solid second fraction after he got rolling. But they all do that there. Sun King ran close to it. The race I would watch again is the Wood and you\'ll have to decide for yourself if Scrappy broke well enough to mix it up on his layoff. I think its pretty clear Going Wild was off that race and may be working his way back. He\'s nowhere good enough on the numbers, but I do think he is quick and will be sent in the Derby. I\'m counting on Bellamy having to work early and not being rateable. I\'m counting on Bailey being wrong. I guess we\'ll see.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I really want to wait for the Derby PP Draw to make my final decisions. Right now I have narowed my field to 4 potential winners and 8 potential ITM horses. I want to get it to 20 winners and 6 ITM for super bets I think PP will help elimminate 1 or 2.

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Clarifiaction:

OOps I meant 2-3 winners. I can pick 20 Winners from a 20 horse field.

[kev]

I don\'t know if PP is a big deal for the derby, they have along way to run till that frist turn, unless you have a speed hoss who is in pos. 1-3 and you know for sure he will save ground. Closers will save ground in the first turn if on the inside, but if put on the outside they still have time to get over. Now speed on the outside might be in trouble if there is more than 2 or 3 speed types.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Kev,

I disagree with your point of view. I do think PP will matter especialy if it does not fit the horses running style.

The stats really do indicate that PP18-20 ans PP 1 are at an extreme disadvantage. Let\'s hypothetically say Bellamy Road Gets PP 20 and to his inside is High Fly, High Limit  (with Blinks), Spanish Chesnut, Consilidator (who beat him pressing him as a 2yo) &  Going Wild and Greeley\'s Galaxy, Afleet Alex & Sun King looking for position, all to his inside. What would you decide to bet under those cirumstances versus lets say he gets PP 3-4-5?

I think it might affect the outcome.

Thats just my opinion.

NC Tony

[spa]

I don\'t think PP is a factor in this one race...The winner is Afleet Alex !!!!

[albany]

I agree with your view on post position. There is a inherent danger to \"locking into\" a selection before all factors are considered. Post position is one such factor (probably one that is not subject to much debate). Others include track condition, inter-day and intra-day track bias, final works approaching the Derby and physical/emotional appearance on the track.

[kev]

Is that not just what I said, sort of in my last post.......\"Now speed on the outside might be in trouble if there is more than 2 or 3 speed types.\" I hope BR does draw post 18 or whatever on the outside.

[beyerguy]

Despite what NoCalTony says, I don\'t think the rail is at a disadvantage.  It is a myth that probably cost Point Given a legit shot at the Triple Crown.  I\'m not sure what stats you have to back up your opinion.

Post Wins
1 12
2 9
3 8
4 10
5 12
6 6
7 7
8 8
9 4
10 9
11 3
12 3
13 3
14 2
15 3
16 3
17 0
18 1
19 0
20 1

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I see the nice total wins from the one hole, with a decent speed horse its not a bad place to start, but I do think a horse can be put into the race too quickly from there trying to save position. Its certainly a hole the Derby can as easily be lost in as won. Bellamy could fair well from there. Then again he could be overused from there or he could break a half step slow and find himself completely out of his game.

[jbelfior]

Those wins were accomplished when the derby field size was half of what it is today. Would not want to be there with 20 going.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[gvido]

The vast majority of those wins from the 1 hole were pre-1950.

In the televised post draw, if the 1 slot was so hot, why is it always the last or next to last one chosen?

[beyerguy]

Because trainers aren\'t the best handicappers is my guess.