dead rail

[Kingfisher]

Following are the chart comments (Equibase) for Keeneland on Bluegrass day and the day after (April 16 and 17). There seems to have been a clear advantage to staying wide, with the average winning path looking to be about the four-path. Only Gators and Bears ran credibly from the inside, though that was from the two-path. The pattern held on the following day, where even the winner of the first who cleared the field stayed in the three-path. I have not seen the videos, so perhaps those who have can verify this for me.

My question is, however, that since ground loss adjustments are an important part of the TG numbers, are adjustments made for  biases like this apparent one? For me, it makes Bandini\'s four wide trip a lot less impressive. I\'d be interested in anyone\'s thoughts.

Here are the comments (dirt races only):

April 16


1. Nine Chimes: pressed in hand,3-4w,took over, drew off,mild hand urging
    Native Bull: never far back, between,4w early,all out to save second

2. Middle Earth: pace near rail early,2-3w turn, driving,well clear
    Northern Gent: well placed from start,loomed inside winner,second best

3. Gold Mask: settled,rallied 4w,took over,going away,late hand urging
    Smart Growth: unhurried early,followed winner 5w,no threat,second best
    Broad Base: sluggish start,inside early,5w from backstretch on,no gain

4. Brighton Bull: exchanged bumps start, 4w,wider in lane,steady drive
    June the Tiger: sluggish start,squeezed,6w lane, second best
    Honour Our Troops: outrun for 1/2, raced 4w,maneuvered 8w into lane,gaining late

5. Spun Sugar: rated early,4w,sweeping rally far turn
    Atlas Valley: never far back, bid nearing lane,5w,no match,second best
    Soul Search: unhurried early,bid far turn, angled 5w,no late gain

8. Clock Stopper: settle, rallied 3w, edged off, left handed pressure
    Gators N Bears: set all the pace (from 2 path), held stubbornly, 2nd best

9. Bandini: forwardly 4w, in hand,put to drive 7/16s, drew off,driving
    High Limit: rated 3-4w,bid,led between calls 1/4p,no match,bobble 1/16p
    Closing Argument: bumped foe early, reserved,3w,brush 5/16s, 4-5w,no threat
    Sun King: settled well back, 4w early,5w far turn,bid 3/8s, 7-8w lane,empty



April 17

1. Half Ours: sprinted clear, 3path, within himself, drew off,mild hand urging
    D Denton: chased winner, 4w,bid between calls 1/4p,no match,2nd best


2. Golden Locket: followed 4-5w,took over nearing 1/8p,driving,clear

3. Stanislas: lean in early,bumped, ck,squeezed,rallied 4-5w,driving,held sway

4. Brian\'s Echo: under long hold early,pressed,4w,took over,clear into lane,lasted

5. Abha: confidently ridden 5w,took over 1/4p,drew off,kept to task

7. Pinpoint: carefully handled, 2-3w,control pace,drivi

[TGJB]

We have the computer flag days when the horses on the rail perform worse than averagage, and I take a look at them. If the rail really is dead, they run much worse than normal, and those are not the ones you use to make your variants-- you just give them bad numbers, and an \"X\". I will look at the Kee days, but my first reaction is that he has many of those horses wider than I remember, at least on the turn.