Bellamy Road

[big ant]

I was really impressed with the ease with which this horse won, and regardless of how fast Frankel\'s horse runs Saturday i think BR wins the Kentucky Derby. BR had to have gotten a significant new top, but the clincher is that he was not really asked. He will have to face faster horses @ CD, but i feel this horse has much more in the tank( it was ridiculous how wrapped up this horse was through the lane). I think Zito\'s second best may prove to be Noble Causeway, i think he wants to run all day, in fact I think you could key BR on top with NC in the 2,3,4 slots with the rest of Zito\'s horses and maybe even throw Frankel\'s horse in between and catch the super.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Big you went way out on a limb and grabbed the horse everyone says is the fastest figure earner. If the Derby was today Bellamy would be about 5-2. You can have him at that.

I believe the fractions were legitimate but not fast on that track. I dont think you can compare the Wood to the 10 mark fourth and I dont think the 10th race horses were much quality and believe they they ran about a 10 on Tgraph. If they ran 10\'s I dont think Survivalist was much better. I know for a fact that every other horse in the Wood ran poorly with the possible exception of Survivalist. I also know the only time Bellmany met significant speed competition he caved. I\'m not saying the cave is gonna happen in the Derby, but he will certainly be tested in a manner he was not tested in the Wood.

Its not gonna look right on TGraphs pattern reconciliation to give Survivalist an 8, I understand that, but if Survivalist ran an 8 that means Bellamy ran closer to a 0. (Similar to his previous race).  I think thats where he was. I could be wrong and Bellamy could still lose the Derby. Also,  I could be right and Bellamy could win it, because a zero still puts him in the hunt. A bet on Bellamy is a decent wager, but is it a bet on a monster?

CtC

[big ant]

I have posted here before, and i am not a chalk eater, so if it makes you feel good to make snide comments about my selection then fine. I will wait for the numbers, but i thought he ran faster than a pair up; even if he paired he did it real easy, and i think you may end up getting better than 5/2 in the Derby; many thought Empire Maker would be about even money and that was not the case.

[ezgoer89]

Any spring 3yo that runs a 120 Beyer ran as fast as it possibly could...BR was definitely asked. That myth \"he could have run faster\" is nonsense.

[Ron G.]

I must of missed the \"wrapped up\" part of his race.  Anyway,if the rider did stop asking the horse, it was only in the final 100 yards or so.  It looked to me like the rider was urging the horse even with a 1/16th to go. Of course, that doesn\'t mean he won\'t run well in his next start, but just an observation on what I saw.

[big ant]

At the 3/16th\'s pole Durkin said \"under a hand ride\" then Castellano was waving his whip at the grandstand just above the 1/16th pole if that isn\'t wrapped up i don\'t know what is. I just think that Castellano was a little pumped up because he can\'t believe how fast this horse is. Thid horse seems to be of the push button variety, very quick acceleration, it will come in handy in a packed field, i just hope Castellano can stay in the saddle.



Post Edited (04-14-05 21:50)

[Michael D.]

ant,
if you\'re picking 5/2 shots that are crossing the wire first you are definitely doing something right. key a winning 5/2 shot in a 20 horse field and you have a decent shot of making some good money. i like BM, but i think i will go with noble causeway if the odds stay where they are. zito has been thinking derby from day one with this guy, and i think the pattern is a forward moving one. i like the breeding as well, especially on the dam side. i will have to use BM as a saver though. good luck.

[P-Dub]

Ant,
A horse can still be close to all out under a hand ride. If Castellano used the whip, are you saying he could have run faster?? I don\'t think so. He was flying all the way through the stretch.


You\'ve posted enough that we know you aren\'t a \"chalk eater\". At least you posted your opinion before the race. Don\'t be so touchy.

[big18741]

Ant

You might want to take a look at Consolidator before you take the plunge on Bellamy and the rest of the Zito barn.

[jimbo66]

Does it really matter if Bellamy Road \"could have gone faster\" in the Wood.  Barring something ridiculous in this weekend\'s preps, Bellamy Road doesn\'t have to run faster than he did in the Wood and can probably run a bit slower and still win.

He is MUCH faster than any other 3-year old right now, handridden or hardridden.

If HIgh Limit or Consolidator take a nice step forward on Saturday, it gets interesting.  Especially if its High Limit.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

lets assume for the sake of arguement Bellamy did in fact run a legitimate negative 4 in the Wood. When Smarty ran his negative 3.3 he regressed in his next start.

Add to the equation that Smarty had a more solid foundation of low figures. (If i\'m not mistaken he ran a Zed as a two year old). Everyone predicted he would come unglued before he accomplished major success. Of course it didnt happen and he even took away some laurels from a valiant Belmont loss. You can argue the point, but its likely he retired much closer to sound than off. The point being, if BR ran a neg 4 is it time for a regression? Especially if he encounters pace pressure and a more energy taxing surface, not to mention traffic or adversity?

Lastly of course, theres no such thing as a handridden fast time. Provided you think it was fast. I dont, so i\'m not as concerned about a bounce. I think hes gonna have to run better to win and beat my horse. But, I also dont think an improvement is in the cards.

CtC

[big ant]

okay neg 4 sounds better than a pair up , truth of the matter is i don,t know who i\'ll bet @ CD. Saturday\'s race will offer more info, perhaps it was a premature assessment on my part. You have to admit though horses that run numbers like this do not riccochet as often as they used to. Last year i played SJ to bounce , and he did, but not enough to lose. Nothing surprises me anymore. Zito seems loaded (is it because all the good horses gravitated to him? or did they gravitate toward the guy with the best chemist?) more will be revealed.  Frankel\'s horses don\'t bounce, but i don\'t think Zito\'s do either; not this year.

[Bally Ache]

You\'re all getting ahead of yourselves.  The race is still 3 weeks away.  There are still 3 major prep races to be run.  To award the Ky Derby to Bellamy Road off his effort in the Wood or call him the fastest 3 yo.  Nope, not buying that. If the race were today, I\'d take Consolidator but we\'ll find out more about him on Sat.

Rockport Harbor isn\'t out of the pictue until he paints himself out of the picture.

Someone mentioned Empire Maker.  At this point two years ago, Frankel & Bailey were talking triple crown for him before he even won the Derby. They ought to have known better.

Smarty Jones - I saw his second race, he ran 1:21 & change over a track that wasn\'t particularly fast.  Two yo\'s simply don\'t do that.

[gvido]

big ant:

Not to worry. Chuckles will reveal his \"actual\" selection 5/08 and believe it or not, it will be the winner including Bellamy Rd. should he win.

[jimbo66]

Gvido,

Good point!!  Early on the 8th, I await Chuckles\' selection!

Chuckles,

I know raw time is pretty irrelevant and I hate when people mention it and use it in an argument.  But very very few people would be brash or foolish enough to say that 1:47 flat in the Wood is \"not a very fast time\".

The race was very very fast on raw time, on Beyer figures, on T-Graph figures, on Ragozin figures, on everybody\'s figures but yours, since you stand alone in your conclusion that Surivor ran an \"8\", since despite his solid breeding, you don\'t think he could handle the distance and two turns.

The valid question for the rest of us that don\'t live on your planet, is whether that VERY fast effort will cause a major regression and make him a vulnerable favorite in the Derby.  Not whether the effort in the Wood was fast......