Bellamy Road

[miff]

Jimbo said,

\"I know raw time is pretty irrelevant and I hate when people mention it and use it in an argument\"

Jim,

The TG Dogma has gotten to you.Raw time is anything but irrelevant but of course needs adjustment. On the other \"ground loss\" is not always relevant.Oops, sorry I blasphemed.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The Wood was fast. TGraph said it was fast. Its fast. Was it exactly as fast as they say? I have serious reservations because I\'m convinced the horse used to make the figure was Survivalist and I\'m also convinved he is completely isolated for consistency on the race. There is no redundancy. There is no second horse to corroborrate the effort with. Without a second horse to reconcile the race you can say Survivalist ran whatever you want can\'t you? Some will say if you give Survivalist an 8 or 9 the others ran too abysmally to believe. I understand that, but I think they did. I think they all fell off the end of the earth. That is my opinion, I\'m cognizant the figure makers believe otherwise. I discount front end unchallenged performance figures unless I believe the circumstances can be repeated in the race under consideration. I don\'t think Bellamy has exceptionally quick pace numbers. I guess we\'ll see won\'t we?

I\'m also convinved that Survivalist is not as impeccably bred for distance as everyone else seems to think. Danzig rarely has filled me with optimism, (especially in his twilight years), and I\'ve never been high on nicks to Mr. Prospector mares and see no reason why this mare should fill one with enthusiasm. Shes not Con Game. Shug wasn\'t Derby high on this horse and Survivalist ran like a sloth in the beginning and end of the race. A pair off the Gotham? With all due respect, how?

The key to me was the race after the Wood. The New York Bred Slow Rats. If They scored down around the 4-5 mark I\'d more or less say everyone  got Bellamy Road\'s Wood correct. I don\'t think they did however. I think they ran about a 10. I could be wrong. I don\'t know what TGraph gave them and dont\' make my own numbers any longer and never made them outside of Florida anyway. But I do know Aqueduct fairly well and I\'m not inclined to believe the efforts in the 8th and 9th were knockout punches. They were good, they werent zingers, but that may even be good for the winners because I\'m less inclined to believe significant tops were run, so in my opinion bounces are less likely.

The figure makers are in a precarious position in my opinion. They\'ve calculated performance figs for a distance race upon a single race and a highly suspect key animal in that race. There is no second race to turn to unless you variant with the 10 furlong fourth. Good Luck. Sweet Dreams are made of this.

As far as my Derby choice, I\'m afraid you will not get it until 10 seconds before off. It will be so close to off time, if I\'m fortunate enough to win for the fourth consecutive year, folks will accuse me of Past Posting. What you gonna do?

CtC

[jimbo66]

CtC,

Nobody said Survivalist is \"impeccably bred for the distance\".  Don\'t redboard other people\'s comments, just the races......

You questioned Survivalist\'s breeding immediatly after the Wood.  I said I thought he was bred OK for the 1 1/8.  Michael D added that he thought Danzig was \"neutral\" for the 1 1/8, but that the dam side had stamina influences. Nobody used \"impeccable\" or even anything remotely close to it.

You seem to always have a reason to denigrate the top horses/performances, which is OK, we all have opinions.  But your logic in this race is the worst it has been.  Makes even less sense than your \"anti-Ghostzapper\" postings...

[Michael D.]

dam of survivalist is a full to seeking the gold, a very good 10f horse. the mr prospector/buckpasser nick worked very well for the phipps\', especially at the distances. shug was neutral on the horse\'s ability to get 10f, but said before the race that the horse should get 9f. it\'s not clear cut, but i imagine survivalist will try 9f at least once more - we will know more then. i don\'t know how you can question the TG #. BR may flatten out when running 10f at CD, but if you look at how the wind aided the one turn times at aqu on sat, it\'s difficult to say that BR didn\'t run a very fast 9f.

[big ant]

I love you guys , thanks for the comments. NYRA tracks are souped up on stakes days, in fact it seems like all tracks are souped up on stakes days lately. Easy Goer ran some big ones on tracks that could have been viewed as artificially fast, but he went on to be a pretty exceptional horse.(no disrespect to the person who signs ezgoer1989, i really liked \"Goer\" too)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Lets wait and see how bad my logic is. Ghostzapper has a hole drilled in his head and is setting up to one turn mile.  Bellamy Road has won 2 races by a combined 33 lengths, has beaten nothing and looks to be a golden opportunity. You still gotta pick the winner and I wont spread unless I think I have a horse like Sweet Cat in my sights. With BR lets say hes 9-5 (He could even be less depending on the final prep results) Depending on how crazy the public gets with Bellamy I may go two deep, but I have my horse barring something unforeseen in the remaining preps. As I said I could lose to him even if I\'m correct a figure of about a zed makes him Derby competitive. Perhaps even ideally form positioned. But I think 9-5 is shallow when I currently rate his fair odds closer to win the race at about 20%. If he beats me at 9-5, I just say \"Good Race, I went against a shallow favorite in a tough race, TGraph prolly got it right and I apologize.\" If I beat this horse with a 25-1 winner everyone proclaims me Pope and Jerry changes my moniker to \"Chuckles the Magnicent Clown\". Its a no lose situation.

I\'d point out the track Records at Aqueduct:

6 marks 1.07.2
7 marks 1.20.0
9 marks 1.47.0

Are you aware that they tied the 6 furlong mark in the Carter, running a 7 mark race and that they only missed the 7 furlong mark by 2 clicks and that Bellamy more or less tied Riva Ridge\'s 9 mark record there? I think the two turn part of the track was at least as quick as the one turn part of it.

CtMC

I think the big question about Bellamy Road is can he duplicate that effort on the first Saturday in May at 10F against a full field of 20 that is likely to contain a few other high quality speeds (especially if High Limit steps forward tomorrow)?

I\'m not sure if he ran a -4 or a little slower, but I\'m satisfied he ran really darn fast at 9F against a weak Wood field on a track that sure wasn\'t bad for speed.

[jbelfior]

Anyone want to offer an opinion of how  BELLAMY ROAD would have done in the Florida Derby???

I would love to hear the pace versus final # fans on this one.

CH--This may be right up your alley!

Good Luck,
Joe B.

\"Anyone want to offer an opinion of how BELLAMY ROAD would have done in the Florida Derby???\"

I think he would have won, run a slightly slower speed figure because of a little more pressure on the front end, and BB Best would have finished further back because of the damage Belamy\'s Road did to him on the front end.



Post Edited (04-15-05 13:54)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think BB Bests legitimate front end speed would have been the acid test for Bellamy Road. Bellamy would have refused to rate and run like a cat on fire for the lead. Bellamy would have forged to a hard fought length lead at four marks...the race would have moved to the end of the backstretch and the turn with Bellamy unable to increase the length lead. At the six mark pole the difference would have been too close to separate them in 1:09:4. At the mile mark B.B. would have begun to slide off and it would have appeared Bellamy was going to shake free, but by then the closers would have suddenly appeared to be in gear and Bellamy would be inhaled by the field as if a large vacuum had suddenly exerted its influence upon him and he\'d have crossed the line third a half length behind Noble Causeway.

A one way pace scenario is a marvelous thing for an unchallenged lead horse to have.

CtMC



Post Edited (04-15-05 14:42)

[jbelfior]

ctc2--

Interesting. Some food for thought with 20 in the gate on May 7th.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

Steve Crist has a new article about Bellamy Road at the DRF.

[richiebee]

Chuckles:

   I thought we didn\'t have to call you \"magnificent\" until after you beat all the logical horses in the Derby with your 25/1.

   My best future position assumes that we will have the first European born Kentucky Derby winning jock since Jean Cruguet.

      How come we haven\'t had a \"fear and loathing\" from Lexington post from TGJB yet? The spirit of Hunter S. Thompson would not be offended.



Post Edited (04-15-05 17:54)

[jimbo66]

Come on Joe B.  \"Interesting\"?  

Chuckles version of what would have happened if Bellamy Road ran in the Florida Derby is like my story of how many home runs I would hit off Randy Johnson, if I only played in the Majors.  (although as many as Randy gave up yesterday, maybe I do have a shot).

Bellamy Road would get run into the ground by BB Best and get devoured by the field.  Thank god for Bellamy that he avoided BB Best in the Wood, his 120 Beyer and -4 would have been an 85 and \"4\".

Give me what CtC is smoking.  Just shocked that Joe B would even read it, let alone believe it.