Going Wild with a Derby Rabbit?

[TGJB]

With a one turn mile wind definitely can be a big factor, and though I didn\'t look up the wind on the day that could be what happened. But in the end there\'s a lot of judgement involved, especially when it comes to giving out new tops, and sometimes figure makers just don\'t want to pull the trigger and go out on the limb. That\'s what happened with Beyer and Ragozin with War Emblem\'s first big one (the race BEFORE the Illinois Derby), and it happened to Andy again last year with SJ in the Rebel. Boy, did I not want to give that number-- but the next 2 or 3 horses paired up and it fitted with the day, so I had no choice, and it turned out to be right.

[beyerguy]

This one is a bit further back, but Beyer blew one of Mossflower\'s allowance races by about 15 points, leadind her to paying $11 in her G1 win in the Hempstead next out when she should have looked like a stand out.  The only reason for his low figure was that it just looked too damn high best I could tell.

TGJB,

Last year\'s SJ race was a high profile error on Beyer\'s part. In an interview after the Preakness he sort of admitted the mistake in a backdoor fashion. I can\'t remember the exact quote, but it was something along the lines of \"Some of SJ\'s other figures could be conservative\".    

I didn\'t see the TG figures for War Emblem until well after the fact. Fortunately I cashed that one anyway.  :-)

[Silver Charm]

Keep in mind about Going Wild he has already run 6 furlongs in 108 and change. Also, Winning Colors pulled a tank job in her race at Turfway before the Breeders Cup Distaff when she almost took down Personal Ensign. If Going Wild is still reasonably healthy he will definately be used as a siphon for those reluctant to rate speed horses just like Honour and Glory was used to siphon Unbridleds Song.

You can book that one.

This race may have more early speed than any Derby since Fredinand won. Groovy, Bachelor Beau, Zapaleta all pure sprinters. The Monarchos year most of the jocks just
lost their minds and any clue of the Pace.

[derby1592]

Jimbo,

In response to your first point: Going Wild will have no trouble going 45 and change and 1:09 and change in the Derby if that is what the connections want to do (and as Silver Charm also mentioned, Wayne has used this tactic several times before in the Derby).

In response to your question: I am sure that I am not the only one on this board that thinks High Limit is likely to improve in the Blue Grass. The question is by how much?

Is he an early developer that is not likely to develop much at 3? If so, he may only improve a point or so (or maybe none at all).

Or is he another freak similar to Smarty Jones who is fast at 2 but still capable of the additional development you normally see in healthy, high-class colts from late summer in their 2yo year to the spring of their 3yo year. If so, given the trainer, he could jump 3-5 pts in the Blue Grass which would put him in the pre-derby freaky fast category along with Smarty Jones and the new star on the block - Bellamy Road.

To have 2 such horses in the same Derby both of which seem to prefer making their own pace (with other quality speed including a possible rabbit thrown into the mix to make it a bit more interesting) along with a quality group of second tier horses (from a figure standpoint) such as High Fly, Sun King, Blues & Royals, Bandini, Noble Causeway, Consolidator and Greely\'s Galaxy (many of which would be first tier in a typical year) could make for a great Derby and TC this year from both a betting and racing fan standpoint.

Chris

P.S. If High Limit does run a big race in the Blue Grass, keep this in mind on Derby day – a horse owner and friend of mine once had Frankel autograph a TG sheet of one of his horses and this is what he wrote next to his name, \"My horses don\'t bounce.\"

[NoCarolinaTony]

GP Horses seem to be holding up very well as they ship out too. SA horses with the exception of the Galaxy horse have not so far this year. Same for FG horses (that run regularly).

Just my observation.

derby,

\"I am sure that I am not the only one on this board that thinks High Limit is likely to improve in the Blue Grass. The question is by how much?\"

I think the extent of any improvement may not be fully reflected in his Blue Grass figure vs. the prior one because this time he\'s going to be running against actual race horses that are going to press him and make him earn it. IMO, if he runs a slightly faster figure, that would be fairly impressive improvement considering how easy he had it last time. If he runs a much faster figure, that would be freaky.



Post Edited (04-12-05 08:57)

[jimbo66]

Chris,

I will just agree to disagree about Going Wild.  If he runs, I feel he will have no impact on the race.  To me, when a horse with natural speed stops showing it early in races, that is one of the best signs of a horse that is \"off form\".  Going Wild showed less early pace in the SA race, then even less in the Wood.  Yes, on his best day, he can run 45, 1:09.  He has already.  But he won\'t in the Derby, at least that is what I think.  A non-factor.

As for High Limit\'s improvement in the Blue Grass, I understand that you would expect improvement based on his 2-year old numbers and with any kind of maturation, he should run better.  But two things.  First, wouldn\'t you have expected him to run better in the LA Derby from a figure standpoint, considering he was \"first time Frankel\" and had 6 months to mature.  With a different trainer, I would say that I expect big improvement second time out, but Frankel\'s horses fire fresh, which brings me to my second point.  I have ready Jerry comment many times that Frankel\'s pattern with horses is that they fire their best figures off the layoff and then don\'t bounce, but also don\'t improve during a campaign much.  You really expect a jump forward in the BlueGrass anyway?  I don\'t really disagree, because I like the horse too, but I wonder about improvement in the Bluegrass.  Frankel manages his 3-year olds a little different and I am hoping that he didn\'t have him fully cranked for the LA Derby, because he will have to run faster to beat Sun King, Consolidator and Bandini.  The other factor that concerns me is that Frankel is a \"sheets guy\".  I guess he has some relationship with Ragozin.  As such, he has to know that if High Limit fires a bullet 3 weeks out from the Derby that probably does not set him up well for the Derby and makes him a bounce candidate.  If he knows/believes that, he may not have High Limit fully cranked for the Blue Grass.

Bottom line for me is that 5-2 is a good bet on High Limit, when you factor everything in, assuming the field stays in tact.

[HP]

Jimbo,

\"5/2 is a good bet on High Limit.\"

Really?  There are several reasons why High Limit may not win the Blue Grass that have nothing to do with the horse\'s ability.  You point out a few of them elsewhere in your post.  And you still think 5/2 is a good bet?  In a competitive race that he\'s not pointing for?  I\'m kind of surprised that this is your conclusion.  

HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

High Limit caught a speed conducive strip last and I\'m hoping and praying this horse and Bellamy Road both get to Churchill in good form and that the super has the strip fair for the race.

This is handicapping at its finest.

I have to mildly disagree with the idea that good layoff trainers like Frankel bring their horses back 100%. They may be darn close to 100%. They may even run figures that approximate their top figure when they come back against soft fields that are being used to prep them for a main event. However, I don\'t think they are actually 100% very often based on studies I have done on how horses perform off layoffs when they are thrown to the lions in Grade I races.

In the case of High Limit, even if Frankel had the horse pretty cranked up, I would still expect this horse to move forward a bit because he\'s so darn lightly raced and a 3YO.

My main issue with him is that this is probably going to be the first time in his career there\'s going to be another horse of enough quality in the race capable of running with him or pressuring him a little early. Then someone else is likely to take a shot at him late.

This is the type of race that seperates the really good ones from the pretenders. It\'s his chance to shine.



Post Edited (04-12-05 11:46)

[jbelfior]

I think HIGH LIMIT runs a Peace Rules type Blue Grass and everyone else runs for second.

You know Zito will not push SUN KING who is likely to come from off the pace on Saturday....ditto BANDINI. Not sure Pletcher even wants to go to the Derby at this point. Owners may win out, but this horse would be better off waiting for Pimlico.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

What about Consolidator?  

I\'m definitely not expecting any duel type action, but all three of those others are presser types. I can\'t imagine High Limit loafing around on a loose lead until the top of the stretch with three quality pace prompters in there. This is too valuable a race to just hand over the check.



Post Edited (04-12-05 13:14)

[jbelfior]

CH---


Not sure he\'ll press this time. Looked too sharp off the layoff which could be why he was stalking. I think that HIGH LIMIT is capable of setting faster fractions and does not need to loaf in order to finish.

It will be an interesting race to watch, not bet.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- coupla points on High Limit. First of all, the guy who had him before (A. Dutrow) is an extreme move-up artist, so the \"first time Frankel\" situation is a little different. Second, when we have talked about Frankel layoff patterns and what the horse does later we are generally talking about older horses. It may or may not be a little different for 3yos, but you can find sheets for Empire Maker, Peace Rules and Midas Eyes in the archives.

This is a real interesting horse, and a real interesting Blue Grass. I don\'t remember any horse that was both blindingly fast at two AND handled this way at three, not starting until mid March, races spaced, two starts before the Derby-- it\'s what I would have done.

I mentioned that I had played the field in pool 2 ($500) at 6-1. This time I bet High Limit (300 @13-1) and Rockport (200 @19-1), because it looks to me like someone will have to go negative to win this, and they\'re about the only other two I can see running new tops that fast. This gives me the ones I consider the 4 most likely winners (right now, anyway), and a few others tossed in (like the Ill. Derby winner) locking in 5/2 to 3-1.

And as you might notice, all 4 will have 2 starts or less going into the Derby.