Pace and TG

[HP]

If you want to talk about pace handicapping and have it dovetail with TG handicapping, a good way to look at it is in terms of ground loss...

There is no inherent contradiction between pace handicapping and TG handicapping.

The advantage of being on the lead can be expressed in terms of ground loss. If a horse can control the pace, one of the main advantages he will have is NOT having to go five wide on the first turn. This \"pace advantage\" horse will be 1w-2w and make his own trip.

Horses that close face a potential disadvantage of having to go wide to get around the traffic when they make their move in the stretch.

There may be no real advantage to being on the lead (if there are a few early speed types), but this may not translate into an advantage for those who have to weave through the horses staggering and trying to hold on to the finish.

Jerry has discussed this at length on many occasions. Probably the BEST illustration of this that I can remember is when Buck\'s Boy won the BC Turf around three turns. Jerry is ALWAYS talking about trips from inside/outside posts and \"saving ground\", which for him is almost a euphemism for tactical speed.

Unfortunately, many people focus on the CLOCK, as opposed to ground loss. People who get involved in TG handicapping are basically shown some of the weaknesses or potential weaknesses of this clock-based approach.

The stuff about High Fly having tactical speed and a built-in advantage in a big field is right on the money. In my opinion, a lot of the other pace discussion here doesn\'t hold water, especially compared with the comparatively clear way of looking at it in terms of ground loss. This goes double if you\'re going to compound this with speculating about biases, etc. It\'s just churning the water without finding the fish, so to speak.

I think everybody should post what they want and I look forward to the pace guys either demonstrating their theories with actual pre-race handciapping or trying to \"fold in\" some of their ideas.  

HP

[richiebee]

HP:

  I appreciate your ability to advance TG methodology in terms that believers, skeptics and neophytes can grasp.

  At this point it seems like a lot of the debate has become heated, which is educational and entertaining. For me, now is a good time to step back a little, watch the final four big preps (Wood, SA Derby, Ark Derby and Bluegrass)and see what the final composition of the field will be.

  Right now it is premature to have any conversation about pace in the Derby without seeing High Limit and Consolidator in their next races, and without knowing if Rockport Harbor will be a starter.

  One thing I know is that I am looking forward to watching Frankie Dettori ride at Santa Anita and possibly Churchill. He is one of the game\'s (human)superstars and most of us don\'t get enough chances to watch him.

  From the sublime to the ridiculous: Wednesday/ Thursday at NYRA-- 18 races, of which 9 are maiden races. Is NYRA strangled?  Will have to get TGs for Wednesday-- 1st/ 2nd start stats are superior.

[beyerguy]

I wouldn\'t disagree with a single thing you said.  Ground loss is huge.  I always look at ground loss in relation to the clock.  I don\'t have the resources to measure it as accurately as TG does, and I also believe that ground loss is much more detrimental on the first turn of a two turn route than it is on the second turn, but that is my personal belief, I\'m not trying to make anyone agree or disagree.

That said, I\'m a guy that pushes about between 8 and 10 grand through the windows each month.  I get a 7% rebate, and am making about 8% on my bets, so around 15% overall.  This is since Septmeber.  I\'ve spent the three years before that making around 10% with no rebate.  I think those three years MAY have gotten me even for life, but I really don\'t know.  I\'m playing 2, 3, and sometimes 4 tracks a day, 5 days a week.  I don\'t bet enough money to justify using TG sheets all the time, its too costly for my betting level.  I do buy them on the big days, because I bet more due to pool size and field sizes.

So, all that said, I will never knock TG numbers.  They are great, no doubt in my mind the best around.  But I also KNOW there is more than one way to skin a cat.  This is a hobby for me, not my way to earn a living, and I enjoy doing my own work at least as much as I do the betting.  Ask my wife, I drive her crazy sometimes, she thinks my laptop is permanantly attached to my thighs.  I\'d probably do it even if I was breaking even or losing a little.  I do like coming here and lending a different perspective on things from time to time, but it doesn\'t mean I don\'t respect and admire the product here.

[dodie]

Beyerguy
  Who do you bet through to get the rebate and what do you think of their service?
Thanks

[beyerguy]

I bet through Pinnacle, and the service would rate a B+ in my book.

[dodie]

thanks