28 days

[derby1592]

Is 28 days a magical number?

Is a longer break a negative for a Derby horse?

Once again, let\'s see what the \"facts\" tell us.

First, let me preface the \"facts\" by saying that all the previous discussion about 2 preps applies to this \"more than 28 days since final derby prep\" discussion in that there has never been a major prep exactly 5 weeks out in the past. The closest thing is the Spiral stakes that is typically 6 weeks out or the Dubai races which have varied in distance and timing and were only started very recently. So, obviously, until very recently, very few horses took this route (I counted a total of only 5 in the 1980s and only 4 from 1990-1996) and those that did almost surely had some physical problems that prevented them from making a final prep.

Again, as I did with the 2 prep study, I compared the \"28 days or less\" sample to the \"more than 28 days\" sample to see if one appeared to be better or worse than the other.

I used the TG stat categories of top/pair/off/X and I looked at all the Derbies for 1997 to 2004. (I did not have any complete sheets before 1997. Sheets from 1997 through 2004 are available in the TG archives.)

The sample size for the \"more than 4 weeks\" group is very small (only 12) and is basically just a subset of the sample used for \"2 preps or less\" from another post. The sample size for the \"4 weeks or less\" group is pretty large (119).

Here are the results:

First for the \"28 days or less\" group (sample size of 119):

New top: 7%
Pair: 24%
Off: 29%
X: 40%

And, now ...drum roll please... here are the results for the \"more than 28 days\" group (sample size of 12):

New top: 8%
Pair: 25%
Off: 17%
X: 50%

(Note: If Express Tour had run about a point faster then the results for the \"more than 28 days\" group would have very close to the other group: 8%/25%/25%/42%)

I will let you all draw your own conclusions and I am sure both camps can \"distort\" or rationalize things in either direction but, once again, I would have a hard time making a case that \"more than 28 days since the final derby prep\" is a bad thing, at least based on these \"facts.\" Given that the prevailing wisdom is that such a layoff is bad, I would again think that you will be getting some built in value with any such horse.

The sample size is so low that the next observation is probably meaningless but of the 6 horses coming out of the Spiral since 1997 (probably the closest to this year\'s 5-week break from the Fla Derby) 3 paired their tops, 2 ran off races and only 1 of them X\'d (Stephen Got Even – who had an absolutely brutal trip in the \"demoliton\" Derby). Again, nothing there to indicate that even as long as a 6-week freshening before the Derby is a negative.

Cheers.

Chris

[TGJB]

Chris-- you\'ll probably have to repost this in about 3 weeks.

[HP]

Sample size of 12?  I\'m going to keep distorting things my own way.  HP

[dlf]

OK...so now we know that a horse can come into the Derby off 5/6 weeks rest and put forth a credible effort. But can he put forth an effort good enough to win? That\'s the real question, no?

[mikemd]

once you remove recent action as a proxy for soundness, it really losses its significance.  does anyone believe that two minutes of exercise three weeks ago versus five weeks ago has any bearing on performance?

[BitPlayer]

derby1592 -

One of your earlier posts called to my attention the existence of the past Derby sheets in the archive (what a gold mine!).  Someone else mentioned that you\'ve previously posted statistical analyses of those sheets (other than on the 5-week and 3-prep issues).  I was going to look for correlations between (a) the relative route and sprint TGI\'s of sires and (b) the Derby performances of their offspring.  Is that something you\'ve already done?  If so, could you let me know what you found.  If not, I\'ll go ahead and do the analysis myself and post the results.  Thanks.

[derby1592]

Bitplayer,

I don\'t have the information you are looking for but I encourage you to do what you can. One problem you will run into is that young stallions will have small biased samples (biased toward short 2yo races).

I think that the broader take away from all this pre-Derby debate is that with the TG stats we now have a new meaningful, fact-based \"language\" for these sorts of discussions rather than just bantering opinions back and forth based on anecdotal experience or irrelevant statistics.

I think tackling your question using this approach will provide you with more insight than looking at things such as dosage or number of winners, etc.

Good luck and have fun and let me know what you come up with.

Chris