Florida Derby

This will be our first chance to see how a horse that ran well in the Lousiana Derby does.

Vicarge didn\'t really look like a horse that wanted to stretch out in distance going into the LA Derby despite having some good figures.

The leaders went 1, 2, 3 around the track in a pace that looked moderate visually on a track that might have been speed or inside speed favoring. Depending on how Vicarage runs in this race, he could give us some evidence about the quality of High Limit\'s performance that day.



Post Edited (04-01-05 17:29)

[NoCarolinaTony]

CH,

I agree with you oin this. It will give us an indication as to how good Frankels horse is.. How do you bet into this race if at all?

I see exacta opportinities with BB Best with 4 others. (Noble Causeway, Vicarage, High Fly, Wal Street Scndle). And perhapsd tris.

NC Tony

[HP]

Yeesh.  There is plenty of evidence available already about the quality of High Limit\'s performance in the LA Derby, and none of it has or will have anything to do with how Vicarage runs in the Florida Derby.  HP

I\'m pretty unlikely to bet any of the following horses:

High Fly - Deserves to be the favorite, but I think he will be an underlay.

Noble Causaway - I\'m a lot higher on his chances that TG, but I think he will be an underlay.

Vicarage - I didn\'t like his chances of getting the route in the LA Derby, but he ran very well. I\'m not sure if he ran well because I underestimated his stamina, he\'s trained by TP, or a biased track/moderate pace carried him. I\'m waiting for some of the horses from that day run back so I can come to some conclusion on if there was a bias that day. If I was confident in either direction, I would take a stand on this horse either way. However, similar to the discussion about prepping for the Derby, they don\'t force you to make a bet if you aren\'t sure what the correct value is. So why be a stubborn fool and guess?  If you have a strong opinion though, this is probably a good horse to key on one way or the other.

I don\'t like PAB and EM as much as the remainder.

My guess is that I\'m going to just watch the race because I don\'t dislike HF enough to get excited about betting against him. He deserves favoritism.

By the way, A huge effort out of WallStreet Scandal might also tell us something about if there was a front running/inside bias that day.



Post Edited (04-02-05 12:39)

[HP]

\"So if Vicarage draws off by 3 after dueling BB into submission and resisiting a bid by High Fly you won\'t be slightly more confident in the quality of High Limit\'s performance?\"

No.  For clarity\'s sake, High Limit has run lights out every time he\'s set foot on the track.  The figures are pretty strong, to say the least.  Nothing Vicarage does today means anything in terms of my evaluation of High Limit.  

\"On the flip side, if many of the outside closers from that day suddenly run a little better than expected and Vicarage finishes up the track you won\'t perk up a little and follow the situation a little closer before backing High Limit?\"

If Vicarage finishes up the track I may attribute it to the fact that he\'s backed up off of significant efforts before.  As for the \"outside closers,\" I guess it depends on which ones and how they run.  I really can\'t imagine a scenario where, say, Wall Street Scandal runs well and I\'ll say, \"wow, I\'m off High Limit now.\"  

I guess you will form your \"non-silly\" opinion later on based on how this race turns out in terms of your analysis of the impact of the speed or inside speed favoring bias you may have seen at the Fair Grounds on LA Derby day.  

Gotta go.  Good luck.

HP

[gvido]

Tossing High Fly in top three slots, he\'s sitting on an 0-2-X and the fever he spiked can only hurt the situation.

Wallstreet just plowed thru his 2yo top and will go off at more than his morning line of 12-1 and he\'ll run well.

Mighty M might be any kind, but short rest.

Vicarage will be the wise guy horse and will split HF and Noble as 2nd fav in betting. Wall/Vic in the exotics up and down.

Good luck!

>No. For clarity\'s sake, High Limit has run lights out every time he\'s set foot on the track. The figures are pretty strong, to say the least. <

I believe a fast sprint and a slow paced loose lead route against garbage cans in Delaware combined with a fast race where he was on a loose lead in a moderate pace on a track that might have been biased tells me that the horse is good. It doesn\'t tell me if he\'s as good as his figures indicate or how he will run when a real Grade I horse hooks him. I\'d first like to determine if there was a bias that day.  

>If Vicarage finishes up the track I may attribute it to the fact that he\'s backed up off of significant efforts before. As for the \"outside closers,\" I guess it depends on which ones and how they run. I really can\'t imagine a scenario where, say, Wall Street Scandal runs well and I\'ll say, \"wow, I\'m off High Limit now.\" >

I agree with everything you say. No one subsequent performance from that day will be proof. I am looking for evidence and it starts accumulating today.



Post Edited (04-02-05 12:02)

[Saddlecloth]

going back the the LD Derby, I know that High Limit got a lone f trip and the track was extrememly biased, but he did set very fast pace fractions, so its entirely possible that he is legit.  I would be more skeptical about the rest of that fields chances of reproducing the form.

classhandicapper wrote:

> >No. For clarity\'s sake, High Limit has run lights out every
> time he\'s set foot on the track. The figures are pretty strong,
> to say the least. <
>
> I believe a fast sprint and a slow paced loose lead route
> against garbage cans in Delaware combined with a fast race
> where he was on a loose lead in a moderate pace on a track that
> might have been biased tells me that the horse is good. It
> doesn\'t tell me if he\'s as good as his figures indicate or how
> he will run when a real Grade I horse hooks him.
>
> >If Vicarage finishes up the track I may attribute it to the
> fact that he\'s backed up off of significant efforts before. As
> for the \"outside closers,\" I guess it depends on which ones and
> how they run. I really can\'t imagine a scenario where, say,
> Wall Street Scandal runs well and I\'ll say, \"wow, I\'m off High
> Limit now.\" >
>
> I agree with everything you say. No one subsequent performance
> from that day will be proof. I am looking for evidence and it
> starts accumulating today.

saddle,

I don\'t think High Limit is bad. I think he is obviously good. I am just trying to figure out \"how good\" he is. Plus, I don\'t know that that track was obviously biased. There may have been no bias at all. It\'s certainly not clear to me.  

He was assigned a pretty good pace figure for that race, but visually it didn\'t look like he was running very hard early and the race development gave me a similar impression.

[gvido]

We\'ll see how High Limit does when someone goes with him. Thus far noone has looked him in the eye, he just might crumble. But, maybe not, LOL

[TGJB]

CH-- this is getting seriously annoying. First of all, aside from the highly questionable THEORIES you present about speed biases, etc., without any EVIDENCE (and I\'m NOT looking for this to turn into a debate about whether those biases exist in general, and won\'t allow this discussion to become that), I provided absolute evidence that neither a rail or speed bias existed on that day at FG. I posted the sheets, along with an explanation making it clear that the numbers for those 3 races could not have held up better, once you factored in weight and ground. You simply never responded to those points, as you often do not, and have now brought your theory up again as if I never shot it down. There is absolutely NO chance there was a bias for those races, WHATEVER Vicarage, High Limit or anyone else does going forward. And anyone who wants to know why can hit the search engine on this site with \"High Limit\" and \"Bias\" to see the string and sheets with numbers they ran.

In the broader sense, the basis for a lot of what we do here is the use of patterns, which involves the premise (which is proved by the Thoro-Patterns, by the way) that horses do not perform at the same level every time, independent of outside influences like pace and bias possibly affecting their form (and think about that statement carefully before you take a shot at it). That being the case, the fact that a horse runs worse following a big number doesn\'t necessarily mean anything. If a GROUP does that could mean something, and a GOOD figure which pairs up can mean something-- but not some vague \"good effort\" to the untrained eye.

Finally, aside from your annoying habit of not dealing with actual evidence or arguments that contradict your position, there is the chutzpah of your overall behavior. This is a TG site, frequented to a large degree by those who use our data and want to know more about how others use it. When I put something out here it is backed up by a tremendous amount of research and by my record, and when necessary by evidence I supply, as with the FG races, or Chris did with the 2 Derby prep stuff. You have some unsupported theories, period. You spout them incessantly, without backing them up with evidence, or addressing evidence or arguments of others. And, as one of the PROFESSIONAL horseplayers who frequents this site said to me on the phone this week, you \"keep dressing the same pig up in different clothes\".

You seem to think that there are two positions-- yours, and everyone else\'s-- and that they are entitled to equal time, no matter who the other person is, or what the evidence is, or what the forum is. Which is not to say you don\'t sometimes have something useful to contribute-- you do. But recognize where you are, and what\'s going on around you.

[xichibanx]

I\'ll take Papi Chuillo to win with Mighty Mecke, Wallstreet Scandel and Noble Causeway rounding out the bottom.

Sort it Out to win the Sunland Park Derby

Ole Faunty to win the Skip Away

Deputy Lad to win the Pan American  

xichibanx

TGJB,

If I express my view about a race or horse, it\'s sort of necessary for me to say what \"I think\". That usually means I have to move beyond the figures and patterns into things \"I think\" impact the figures.

I understand that you disagree with some of my general and specific views/theories and are certain you are right. I didn\'t think the requirement was that I agree with you every time or prove my theories in order to post my opinions here.
 
If this forum is just for people that use TG figures, want to get better at using them, and believe in them to the same extent you do, you should have thrown me out of here a long time ago. I use your figures, but I obviously supplement them with other information and ideas.

Seriously, I don\'t like these conversations to get circular or repetitive either. It wastes my time too.

Sometimes someone responds to me in a way that makes me think they didn\'t understand what I was saying. I guess I don\'t communicate well. So I respond. Sometimes I get a series of responses or a comment from you that I think misunderstands me or is taking something I say as an attack on the product and off we go. That\'s not what I want. I obviously love talking horses. I want to post my opinion and thinking, read what others have to say,  maybe pick up a way of thinking about it that will advance me, maybe discuss a result, and go away.

[Michael D.]

i don\'t have much to add, but

NC - expecting a move forward to the \"3\" lvl. should get the perfect trip under prado from post 1. zito didn\'t crank up TCE for last year\'s fla derby, and the horse came in third despite being at least five lengths faster than the rest. i\'m not sure NC will be completely cranked for this, thus the risk for a late running second or third. still, top two finish predicted.

BB - will get perfect trip. was all out last. not expecting much improvement. \"5\" maybe?

PAB - not looking for a forward move going 9f. wait until he cuts back.

HF - low odds contender based on # power and expected good trip. can\'t toss.

vicarage - rean very well last out. i get the sense that the horse was completely cranked though. pletcher probably wanted another week to prepare, but when bandini got hurt, he had to try this spot. expecting a small backwards move. i will try and beat the brilliant pletcher/jr team.

MM - maybe, but comes in on short rest. not for me.

PC - just don\'t see a reason why he will improve today. no thanks.

WS - \"6\" or \"7\" maybe? might have used with a better post. no.

EM - i posted on this guy in the sapling, one of my biggest hits last year. the colt is a 6f sprinter though. no.

i\'m stuck with two of the three favs. flat HF/NC exacta, maybe get 4-1 or 5-1 on my play .........  see, told you, not much to add.

[TGJB]

CH-- once again, you have failed to address the points I have made. Do it again and your post will get deleted.

An example of making your point while addressing someone else\'s points and evidence would be, \"despite all the evidence indicating otherwise, I still believe that there may have been a speed bias on La. Derby day\".