Louisiana Derby

I\'m especially interested in seeing how High Limit runs. He\'s got 2 huge wins and is trained by Frankel, but he obviously didn\'t beat much last year. His win at a route looks very much like he got loose in an extremely soft pace. I\'m not sure that proves conclusively that he\'ll be as good going long as short - especially off the layoff like this. Nice works though.

Big work for Kansas City Boy coming into this. He looks like he\'s improving. Too bad he has the outside post. It won\'t help.

[spa]

The horse (K.C.) was scratched last week because the trainer wanted an outside post. I read this here as a post by one of our loyal writers before he was scratched!!!!!!

[Kasept]

Thx for the \'ack\' Spa! McPeek got EXACTLY what he wanted, and he runs for twice the purse too.. He\'s pulling a \'Sarava\' with this colt..

Here\'s the LA Derby look-see..

Saturday\'s sophomore stakes schedule takes us to New Orleans and San Francisco for the Louisiana and El Camino Real Derbies: two events that have histories of identifying classy winners on the Derby Trail and beyond.

2003\'s edition of the Gr. II Fair Grounds meet highlight produced Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide, 3rd that day (subsequetly awarded 2nd), and was won by Peace Rules who went on to his gutsy show placement at Churchill.

In 1996, eventual Derby winner Grindstone left the Big Easy a winner, having topped local hero Zarb\'s Magic on his way to the roses for D. Wayne Lukas. Another Louisiana legend that copped Derby laurels here and at Louisville was the mercurial Risen Star (1988).

THE LOUISIANA DERBY, Gr. II, $600,000, 8.5f, All carry 122

1.) SORT IT OUT (Baffert/Albarado) 6-1: Stonerside acquisition makes first start under Baffert after surprising Grocer, Scrappy and New Yorker in the Whirlaway. May need this after being kept him off the worktab for weeks following the move from Big Apple. NY-bred is 4 for 5 at the trip, draws rail and Ridin\' Robby for late run, but speed-favoring oval has us leaning against today. Recall Baffert got first LA Derby win last year with Wimbledon after a number of frustrating visits.

2.) STORM SURGE (Stewart/Bailey) 6-1: Overbrook stalker-presser continues to be winless past 8f after admirable Risen Star try fell short. Formful Storm Cat colt has maintained level for Dallas during 9 race career, but doesn\'t appear to be developing further. Waters get deeper for sophs from here on out, and while addition of Bailey can\'t hurt, we think several here are moving by him at this point in the season.

3.) HIGH LIMIT (Frankel/Dominguez) 5-2: X-factor colt appears from Frankel barn after scoring easily in both career starts at DEL while under the care of Tony Dutrow. Buzz from Palm Meadows on this one is deafening, and fact he is ML favorite means noise was heard all the way to New Orleans! Adds significant 7# today, but with Proud Accolade sick, may be lone speed at circuit where that works wonders (think Peace Rules). Frankel angles all positive into this, and Maria\'s Mon colt figures prominently under Dominguez if you care to swallow the low tab.

4.) REAL DANDY (Asmussen/Meche) 8-1: Yankee Victor bay started career as Asmussen barn after-thought, but has moved past stablemates to earn trainer\'s respect, appreciation. Turned string of near-misses under lesser guidance into win-place efforts under capable Donnie, including fireworks exacta finish under Scipion in last month\'s Risen Star. Steady developer was targeted for this spot originally by 26% (meet) conditioner, and is one of several off-pace runners to choose from in event that may not offer appropriate set-up.

5.) INDY STORM (Zito/Melancon) 20-1: Another week, another stake, another Zito prospect... Farmer dropped $750,000 at KEE Sept. \'03 sale for this A.P. Indy colt who won first out in the Calder slop at 8f New Year\'s Eve. Late runner failed to factor in pair of GP ALW\'s since, but Nick said this week he expects a \"different horse\" Saturday. Barn is on fire, strip reg Melancon climbs on, and pony is sole ML \"big price\" at 20-1. Makes sense for exotic tickets hopping to land a tote buster.

6.) WALLSTREET SCANDAL (Violette/Bejarano) 10-1: Read the Footnotes connections make another try on the main with recently successful GP turf ALW winner. Cross-out Champagne flop from BEL rail, and realize Mt. Livermore chestnut is 4/2-2-0 with pair of stakes placements. Fired Boynton Beach bullet on Monday earning plane fare to New Orleans, and Violette lures Bejarano to 10-1 play as added benefit. May run more forwardly with horsy Houdini aloft, and is a viable option to those seeking value throughout the money slots.

7.) SCIPION (Biancone/Stevens) 4-1: Biancone\'s Slow-developing A.P. Indy son may have benefited from Risen Star collapse when scoring here under Stevens last month. Gets acid test here with some added competition and pace scenario that may not be as inviting. Will have to come home faster than :32.4 today, and we\'re doubting that.

8.) VICARAGE (Pletcher/Velasquez) 10-1: \"Other\" Pletcher entrant became solo artist with Accolade defection, and MSW/ALW winner acquires services of Johnny V. thanks to it. Nice Vicar colt from Dogwood has failed to menace in pair of graded stakes tries, but \"karma moves\" here 3rd of the break for first two turn try. For Pletcher-Velasquez fans.

9.) KANSAS CITY BOY (McPeek/Blanc) 5-1: One of our favorite Class of \'05 colts got wide berth manager wanted when abandoning last week\'s Fountain of Youth for this. Holy Bull runner up and Lecomte show pony (shy a neck and head) removes the blinkers to try new stalking-pressing tactic under Blanc. Education timing looks right as McPeek charge is sitting pretty in Derby earnings race and may be just arriving at start of peak cycle. Doesn\'t have to win today, but expect another move forward by our top Derby outsider.

SELECTIONS:

1. Kansas City Boy
2. Wallstreet Scandal
3. High Limit
4. Real Dandy
5. Storm Surge

I remember that \"outside post\" post. If the horse doesn\'t like running on the inside, I guess it would make some sense to not want the 1/2 post. But I can\'t believe it\'s desireable to have the 9 post when there\'s a short run to the first turn. Not saying he can\'t overcome it, but I\'d rather be more inside.

[Kasept]

class..

I think McPeek is trying to utilize every possible \"experience\" that KC Boy may have to deal with at Churchill. He said that he\'s noticed how much more relaxed Boy is when outside of horses and I suppose he must want to see how capable he is of losing some ground while relaxing off the lead against class competition.

Check out the Oct/Nov KEE/CD starts when he drew the 8 and 9 holes in the 2 MSW\'s.. He responded with 2 really nice efforts. Even in his third career start when launched from the 3 hole, he got up 2nd under Edgar with a \"good finish outside\".

Jerry alerted us to this colt\'s classic aspirations in the Lecomte write-up, and I\'ve been a fan since. I also think it\'s interesting that the owners chose to sell their Wild Desert with KC Boy being \"Not For Sale\" at any price. The horse is named for one of the partners\' father, and McPeek seems to be really keen on making this run with Boy special for them.

I also like the fact that success for this colt could be a nice plus to Calumet, who bred him.

[jbelfior]

Beware guys. Remember, it\'s McPeek. He\'s probably had the horse long enough to screw him up.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[dodie]

Yeah, just like he did Tejano Run (2nd in the Derby, 124 beyer in a Hialeah stakes as a 4YO [love to know what his TG # was in that race]) oh yeah, and Florida Derby winner and KY Derby favorite Harlan\'s Holiday.  Hmmm . . .wonder why the owner pulled all his horses from McPeek after the Preakness and sent them to Todd Pletcher?  Todd\'s not a \"jump up trainer\" is he?  Oh yeah, and Repent and Take Charge Lady.  Didn\'t Jerry Bach take all his horses away from McPeek after \'Lady was retired?  Did they go to Ronnie Werner?  Is Ronnie a jump up trainer?   Oh, and that was also the year he won the Belmont with Sarava.  Soon after the horse went to Bob Baffert, who did a real \"bang up job\" with him.  But wait, isn\'t Bob considered a \"jump up\" trainer too?  I wonder if his \"caught lightning in a bottle\" owners decided he just wasn\'t \"doing everything he could\" to win the race, and decided to get someone who would.  Oh, and that\'s right, this is during that period when his wife found out she had cancer or something when she was pregnant with their first child.  I\'m sure that wasn\'t effecting him.
  What about that GI winner \"She\'s a Devil Due\" that he bought for $37,000?  Wasn\'t her owner one of his high school buddies who actually took a second mortgage out on his house to buy his first race horse?  At least he bought a filly so she\'d have some residual value in case things didn\'t work out.
  Yeah, he did a terrible job with last year\'s Grade I Gulfstream Park Handicap winner Hard Buck.  But wait, wasn\'t that Prince Arch horse who just won the same race this year trained by McPeek too?  Prince Arch, hmm  . . . hey, wasn\'t he the only horse to beat Kitten\'s Joy last year?
  Take a look at the TG sheets for any of his top horses.  What will you see?  Smooth development; time off when needed; small, incremental improvement; classic forging horse lines with his 2-3 year olds, just like they used to be in \"the good old days\" before top caliber stakes horse trainers started becoming \"jump-up trainers\".  What won\'t you see?  Magic \"jump-ups.\"  
  Kenny McPeek is one of the good guys.  He does things the right way, within the rules.  Will he take advantage of any legal method to maximize performance?  Sure. He and his owners have one primary goal:  win the KY derby.  Does the Derby trail burn some horses up?  I think just about anyone who knows anything about horses will say that it does. But here\'s the bottom line:  McPeek knows what it takes to win the spring 3yo races.  Oh, and by the way, he\'s developed into quite a turf trainer to keep everyone\'s interest during the rest of the year.
  So anyway Joe, go with Pletcher and Frankel\'s horses.  I\'m sure they\'ll give you what you\'re looking for.
  Oh, and did I mention I got 150-1 on KC Boy and 175-1 on Wild Desert, and 75-1 on Diamond Isle over Christmas at Bally\'s Derby Future Book?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The outside here may not be quite as much of an impediment as first appears. K.C. Boy in all likelihood isn\'t gonna change his running style, especially off that last workout, so blinkers or no blinkers if he\'s not engaged early I\'ll be very surprised.

Personally I think the scratch/ship was a significant mistake. He obviously likes the Fair Grounds, but I\'m not entirely sure he wasn\'t relishing Hallandale. He\'d already beaten the horse that won the FOY and the end of the line comes awful quick for these guys this time of year. I\'d have sought the Grade II black type there. The reason he\'s been competitive to my eye is that he\'s saved ground his last three races. Add the weight, wide and diminished distance and long stretch (which means tight turns by the way) and this is a horse I\'d be very leary of at short odds and I think thats what you\'re gonna get.

In his favor is that the pace may not be as tough. Theres no Electric Light, Silent Bid or Bold Lion. But, you can\'t doubt that the Frankel and Pletcher horses are going to show speed. A lot depends on Frankels horse, but I\'m not projecting a major move up off Dutrow.

As far as Scipion\'s figure goes, it certainly is much better than what Beyer gives him credit for and he did close very well late. Can he run the same type of race Saturday and win? He\'ll have to be better, but he\'s already beaten some of the better competition here or beaten those that have beaten them.

Storm Surge gets to run at equal weights for a change. Anyone else think K.C.Boy is gonna have his hands full with this one?

Lastly you can\'t help notice Bafferts horse. Its a question of the quality of that last race and his fitness. Its his fitness I\'m a bit leary of. If I reached a conclusion he was fit, I\'d say Albarado landed in a very soft spot.

I think the key to the race is obviously High Limit. We are dealing with a horse that was well touted before he started and won like he could be anything. The question of course is that he looked good beating \"nobody\". Plus, the route win looks like it was on a loose lead in a very slow pace. That hardly demonstrates conclusively that he can run as effectively going long under pressure against horses of some quality. Throw in the fact that he\'s coming in off almost a 5 month layoff and there\'s little doubt he\'s \"vulnerable\" if he goes off at short odds.      

However, there are also question marks about everyone else.

I don\'t think the Risen Star was nearly as good a race as the Holy Bull. If you back one of those horses, I think you better be projecting some improvement because IMHO, they aren\'t all that good.

Backing a speed/presser from the 9 post when there\'s short run to the first turn, speed inside of him, and when he has hardly looked like a world beater in the last 1/8 of his routes is hardly attractive to me either. If KCB, had the 3-4 post and I thought it was certain he could get his presser position without undue effort, I\'d probably back him at 3-1/7-2 against High Limit. I don\'t see that as certain from the 9 post tomorrow even though I love that workout coming in. I think it\'s very positive when an improving 3yo shows an improved work out. I\'m just worried about the trip. I don\'t like taking relatively short odds on horses that could get a somewhat rough trip.  

Sort it Out also beat a weaker field, but he\'s got the rail, has been improving, and goes to Baffert. Is he ready for a top effort?

Wall St. Scandal looked sensational in his turf win, but I always have a bit of trouble backing a horse off his turf form unless I\'m convinced he\'s just as good on both surfaces.

For me, it all comes down to price.

If they make High Limit a solid/big favorite, I\'m going to try to beat him somehow, but I think all the best options are a bit flawed.

If High Limit is a tepid favorite or not even the favorite, the race is probably a pass.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I can\'t let a horse like High Limit impact my wagering. I have more speed figs to look at yet, but what I see doesnt scare me. I find it interesting that 2nd start Golden Rainbow was still the best competition he could find.

He wasn\'t killer fast, he\'s coming off a large layoff. He did it all against Delaware Park horses. (They can be o.k.) Obviously if it was Saratoga you\'d take greater note. This time there are a couple with speed/class he hasnt seen that before. (I think i said something similar about DeClan\'s but he had to run so hard hes done.) He\'s coming off the move upiest of all move up trainers. If Frankel beats me with him I\'ll just say \"You sonabiatch\"

I guess eveyone has the Peace Rules syndrome.

CTC,

It\'s always all about price. If they don\'t make him a heavy favorite, then there\'s not much value in having the opinion that he\'s vulnerable. He certainly has a chance. He ran some decent figures for a 2YO at that time of year while under wraps.

There\'s a big track take to overcome.

You can\'t overcome it unless the public is  doing something very wrong. No one forces you to go to the windows. :-)



Post Edited (03-11-05 16:12)

[jbelfior]

Dodie---

So the guy has had some terrific stock. Does that make him a good trainer? HH and SARAVA were already gutted once they left McPeek. By the way, what happened to REPENT after the Travers...I forget.

Sure he\'s a good guy and clean. That\'s why you should keep betting his horses.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[richiebee]

KC Boy sure getting a lot of ink for a NW2LT animal. With his human connections (Blanc/ McPeek) and Affirmed as his broodmare sire, I see greenery in his future.

In my opinion, Sort It Out and Wallstreet Scandal are running at their owners\' behest against the wishes of their trainers.

High Limit-- short price, big lead on the backside. When Frankel coyly says he didn\'t realize this colt was a front runner, you cant believe him. As I recall, Peace Rules had much more bottom than this. Will Dominguez try to wrestle with this one early, or let him run free?
 
Storm Surge is a G3 winner at the Fairgrounds. I wonder if Bailey can be  patient enough to let Hi Limit open a big advantage on the backside, or whether he will feel compelled to chase. He really needs
Vicarage or KC Boy to attend High Limit early. A good bet at 4/1 or above, but no shot of that with Bailey.

Scipion: It doesn\'t get any better than Biancone/ Stevens. My greatest concern is his last work (1m 1:41). Two possibilities are that Biancone is uncertain of colt\'s foundation (hard to believe with breeding) and that PB has no interest in trying to get this colt interested early. Right now he is a one dimensional animal totally reliant on fast contested pace in front of him.

Strategy: In tomorrows FG all stakes Pick4, try to beat 3 favorites: Badge of Silver, High Limit and the Pletcher South African turfer.

I agree that Badge of Silver is another vulnerable favorite. I\'m a big fan of his, but I don\'t think 9F is really what he wants. Plus he\'s out more than 2 months. There\'s always a chance he\'s less than 100%. I think he will have to be 100% to win. I see a few horses in there I think could be sitting on a lifetime top.

[richiebee]

Dodie:

  2004:    Pletcher 948/ 240  25%
           Frankel  491/ 135  27%
           McPeek   413/  74  18%

The entities that spend wild money for thoroughbreds are always going to try to get these animals trained by the 25- 27% guys. If they want a warm and fuzzy human interest story, they can watch the local news.

I agree that KM has done very well with grass horses, especially some of the ones he has bought himself in Brazil, but I don\'t think we want to be anointing him as a 3YO spring classic \"guru\" yet. To me that is a very short list: Baffert, Lukas and Zito. And if Lukas can\'t produce some magic this year, he is in danger of becoming a guru emeritus.

Good luck with those Vegas bets.