Derby Talk - Number of Preps

[jimbo66]

It is only 9 or 10 weeks away from the derby, so it is not too soon to start talking/thinking about it.  I have two general topics that I would love to hear opinions on, the first one is about number of preps before the derby.  This year more than ever, this is an issue in handicapping.  The top five derby prospects on the Derby Watch on DRF are all going to have two preps instead of the traditional 3.  I think there are some conflicting stats that are difficult to explain.  Here they are:

1.  Many handicappers I know believe that a horses \"3rd race off the layoff\" is a great betting angle and often the race where a horse shows his best race.  This would seem to favor two preps, not three.

2.  I believe the stat is that only once in the last 50/60 years has a horse with less than 3 preps won the Derby.  To me this is a significant sample.  No, it isn\'t as statistically significant as having 1000\'s of races to look at, but it is as large a sample as you can get with a \"once a year\" race and I think too strong a trend to ignore.

I am guessing based on JB\'s comments I have seen in the past that he views the 2 preps/3 preps question to be irrelevant and in fact I remember him saying in last year\'s derby seminar that he applauded the connections of Friend\'s Lake for entering the derby off the layoff, as a fresh horse.  But this angle also has almost never worked. I think that it is possible/likely that many strong handicapping angles for \"normal\" races are \"out the window\" for the Derby.  Things like having a fresh horse, having a horse running \"3rd off the layoff\", etc.

Any other views?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

It was kinda hard to point at Friends Lake and say \"There ya go, SEE...two preps can\'t work\". That horse was a basket case. He beat Value Plus who is a sprinter type and The Cliff\'s Edge though third was probably best. I forget why his run was compromised, but he had to skip a beat even in late stretch. I lucked into that perfecta, but I don\'t think I had Friend\'s Lake as a factor at all in the Kentucky Derby and that was even being very leary of a wet track.

Who are the top five?

DeClan\'s Moon - He hasn\'t won beyond 8.5 marks yet has he?

Afleet Alex - Ditto on distance, His full brother Max looks a little light on distance and he had the lead and gave it up last.

Rockport Harbor - questionable on dam side. I have fastest two turn 2 yr number for him, but his main competition just significantly failed, he has battled both and injury and shoe difficulty and if he doesn\'t do it on two preps, who is gonna blame the two prep format?

Roman Ruler - If he fails are you gonna blame the preps?

Wilko - ran on a quarter crack and has missed a start supposedly on weather issues?

Two preps are plenty in the right circumstances, with the right horse, obviously there is something to be said for conditioning.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Here is a list of Horses that ran in the past 5 Derbies with only 2 Derby Preps:

2004: Tapit, Castledale,Read the Footnotes, Birdstone, Friends Lake
2003: Peace Rules, Outta Here, Indian Express
2002: Proud Citizen, Johanasburg, Essence of Dubai, Saarland, Castle Gandolfo
2001: Point Given, Express Tour
2000: China Visit, Anees

The most notable on this list was Point Given.

The last two winners with only 2 Derby Preps were Real Quiet, who had 9 races as a two year old, and Sunny\'s Halo who had 11 races as a  two year old.

It appears to me that 3 preps is required to get the appropriate conditioning to pick up the added distance.

Good luck to those trainers that are trying to go the two race prep route.

NC Tony

[jimbo66]

Tony,

Real Quiet had 3 preps, not 2.  One was in early January.

http://www.drf.com/tc/trail/2004/derbywinners.pdf

[TGJB]

Real Quiet ran 3 times as a 3yo before the Derby, but Lion Heart ran only twice. So did Victory Gallop a couple of years earlier.

This is Mike Watchmaker\'s baby, same guy who thinks that ALL horses go forward second off a layoff-- that a minute and a half of excercise once in 3 weeks will make all the difference in the world to a horse which is excercising every day.

Here\'s the question, which I raised last week-- the idea of needing three preps (or any preps) is based on the idea that without them the horse is less fit. If that\'s true, the horses should perform better in their next start after the Derby. Well, go down your list (and take it back further),and see how many came back to run an improved race in the next 4 weeks.

I think you will find it\'s more a question of ability and soundness limitations that compromised those horses.

[jimbo66]

JB,

I am not sure which side of this argument I really believe, which is why I posted it here.  But let me play devil\'s advocate with your posting.

1.  The classic high profile example of the two prep failure was Point Given.  He looked like a \"short\" horse in the Derby and then was super the rest of the year.  Baffert helped make the point by specifically stating after the Derby that he made a  mistake with the horse by having two preps.  He said he wanted a fresh horse for the triple crown and didn\'t want him to be \"over the top\" by the Belmont.

2.  You are saying that the \'result\' of not having enough preps would be having a better race AFTER the Derby.  However, one could also argue that running a demanding 1 1/4 without a proper foundation would result in damaging the horse and also causing a regression in the next start.  Lion Heart would be a good example here.  Many others without proper foundation were never good horses again, like Friend\'s Lake, Read the Footnotes, Anees.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Out of that List I can only think of Point Given and Birdstone (more that 4 weeks) came back and ran better races next time out. Don\'t know how I forgot Lion Heart(thanks). I also missed the race on Real Quiet. I\'ve got my little data base fixed.

This is great site, and appreciate the dialogue.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I finally understood your point Jerry, to paraphrase:

\"If two preps are insufficient, the Derby itself becomes the \"Third Prep\" and its the race after the Derby that fitness will have been attained\"

The horses on that list that bear that out are Point Given and Birdstone.

However Peace Rules and Proud Citizen ran exceptionaly races, stayed the distance and could have been winners in certain circumstances.

Three of these horses Point Given, Birdstone and Peace Rules were very good horses. Proud Citizen was a mightabeen.

In the end it boils down to having the right horse, circumstances and getting some luck. The prep question will lose you money. All \"absolutes\" do.

JB,

I have no view on this issue. However, if you put a gun to my head and forced me to pick between 2 identical horses I\'d take the one with 3 preps. As long as we have this stat, we can\'t be sure it doesn\'t mean something. I don\'t see any stats that argue for 2 preps. Either 3 preps is better or it doesn\'t matter. So I would go with 3 preps if I was the owner/trainer.

I think there have been some studies on route races that suggested that without a certain amount of preparation horses WILL go backwards off the layoff in their routes. If I recall, 1 sprint to a route off a layoff wasn\'t nearly as good as 2 sprints as a prep for routing.

[NoCarolinaTony]

One other way to look at the conditioning was that the last three Derby winners ran an even better Preakness next time out with the added conditioning. The Preakness was the peak of their form cycles and the beginning of the downcycle for all three.

Soundness issues etc.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- First of all, one of the key points to keep in mind is that a bettor\'s interests and a trainer/owner\'s are two different things. As bettors we are only concerned with betting them on the days they show up, as someone who works the other side of the street I have to be concerned about the long run. And VG is one of very few horses of the last 10 years to run in all 3 TC races and go on to have any real success at 4.

We will never know why Point Given didn\'t fire on Derby day (and Baffert probably won\'t either), but since he ran much better not just after that but before it as well, I don\'t think fitness had anything to do with it. Who knows.

I agree that none of the others were ever good again. I just disagree as to why-- in some cases it was because of soundness issues, and it was pretty clear that some of those were handled the way they were because of them. I don\'t believe \"lack of seasoning\" made them more vulnerable to injury-- as John Forbes once said to me, the sounder they go into a race, the sounder they come out.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Yeah Tony...i think theres something to be said for the sixth race aggregating. Though, I still think the pace beat Smarty. He had a good race in him. Additionally, if Empire Faker and Ten Most Wanted have to run a Preakness and not ambush, I\'m not altogether sure Funny doesn\'t win that Belmont in mediocre time. He was only beaten five lengths. War Emblem was a gate horse, that didn\'t get out of the gate. Its hard to say cuz he never had a chance. I mean if Commendable was capable of essentially wiring, War Emblem figured capable in the right circumstances.

Its a tough series to sweep, but the horse that does it may come to the Derby with two preps. Doug O\'Neil is very high on the Moon.

CtC

[jimbo66]

CtC,

I don\'t think the pace beat Smarty, I think the distance finally caught up with him, combined with circumstances..  The early fractions were moderate to slow, although the middle fractions were amongst the fastest in recent Belmonts.  Birdstone got a much better ride than Smarty did, making only the one move.  When I say \"circumstances\", I refer to the early moves by Rock Hard Ten and Eddington, kind of forcing the hand of Stewart Elliott.

Doug O\'Neill is high on Declan\'s Moon?  He isn\'t the trainer, so that is interesting.

CH,

I am in agreement with you on this.  I don\'t have a strong view, but the fact is 57 years with one winner coming in with less than 3 preps.  The results are the results.  Explaining them is tough, but the fact is 2 or less preps have not been successful.

JB,

I understand your point on soundness after the Triple Crown trail.  I think I would include Silver Charm in that group though, as well as Skip Away.  They were both very good after the TC trail.  Real Quiet also had a nice 4 year old season, beating Free House in the G1 - Pimlico Special.  Free House is another who was good after his 3 year old season.

[miff]

A New York trainer down in Florida had occasion to talk to Nick Zito about Sun King who was about 90% ready for his first start, according to Zito.The colt\'s not even\"tucked up\" yet, according to a good trainer who watched him parade.

I suspect he received the top number for any 3yr so far.Got a fig yet,JB? Beyer has 104.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

very impressive run.

he\'s improved.