BSF's Already Narrow Derby Possibles

[Kasept]

(Would love everybody\'s thoughts on the piece I wrote this a.m.  I haven\'t looked at all the sophs TG #\'s as a contrast, and the Beyers are readily available for research.. Are my conclusions \"valid\"..?Thx, Steve)

BEYERS ALREADY NARROWING DERBY CHOICES

On Feb. 18 Gary West, the excellent race writer for the Ft. Worth Star-Telegram, wrote an edifying analysis of the Derby Trail scene. The veteran reporter opined that the early results of this year\'s Derby preps need to be taken with the proverbial \"grain of salt\" as historically, the winners of these events rarely have an impact on the Triple Crown.

West correctly explained that the Second of June\'s, Trust N Luck\'s, Repent\'s and Buddha\'s, horses that made splashes the last few years in January and February, are never around in March and April, or most importantly, the first Saturday in May. He went on to say that Monarchos, War Emblem, Funny Cide, Charismatic and Real Quiet, all were soundly beaten at this time of year in the sophomore campaigns before going on to Derby glory.

All true. But there seems to be a bigger problem facing this crop of three year olds that transcends the reality that early season winners are typically left behind when the real running starts in the Gr. I preps in late March and April. The fact is that this group of sophomores is unusually slow. Make that shockingly slow.

Joe Cardello, the Daily Racing Form\'s Beyer Speed Figure analyst, offers a perspective of contenders\' figs every year in the Derby edition of the paper. Last year, he projected the Derby\'s top 6 or 7 finishers based on the number of triple digit Beyers each of the entrants had run in their careers. Utilizing the Beyers as a measure of comparison, we looked at the past performances of every Triple Crown nominee from 2003-05.

By this time in 2003, of the 454 Triple Crown nominees, 30 had already run a Beyer of 100 or more (6.6%). Eventual Derby winner Funny Cide had logged a 103 at 2; third place finisher Peace Rules a 102 and 4th place runner Atswhatimtalknbout a 105. Here\'s a list of the 2003 Derby runners that had posted triple digit numbers before March 1, 2003:

Derby finish-Horse-BSF
1. Funny Cide 103
3. Peace Rules 102
4. Atswhatimtalknbout 105
5. Eye of the Tiger 102
6. Buddy Gil 106
10. Domestic Dispute 103
11. Scrimshaw 104

In addition to these, here are other \'Class of \'03\' horses that didn\'t make the Derby but had earned consideration at two or went on to good things later in their careers:

Badge of Silver 108, 108
Kafwain 102, 115
Trust N Luck 106, 110
Omega Code 103
Philadelphia Jim 101
Zavata 101, 102
Why Why Why 102
Vindication 102
Toccet 101, 102
Southern Image 102
Singletary 100
Sky Mesa 103
Composure (f) 101

Last year, as Mare Reproductive Loss Syndrome (MRLS) began to show its effects on crops claiming at least 500 foals, 434 colts and fillies were Triple Crown nominated and 19 had run a 100+ Beyer by March 1, 2004 (4.3%). The Derby trifecta of Smarty Jones (105), Lion Heart (103) and Imperialism (101) led the triple digit club by the time February ended. The 2004 Derby runners that earned 100+ Beyers by March 1, 2004:

Derby finish-Horse-BSF
1. Smarty Jones 105
2. Lion Heart 103
3. Imperialism 101
5. The Cliff\'s Edge 101
7. Read the Footnotes 105, 113
12. Master David 100

These other \'04 sophomores were 100+ runners:

Cuvee 101, 103
Value Plus 108
Silver Wagon 106
Second of June 113, 111
Redskin Warrior 105
Rock Hard Ten 101
St. Averill 102
Chapel Royal 100
Madcap Escapade (f) 108

Which brings us to 2005. This is the crop most severely affected by MRLS having taken an estimated 1,200 foals in Spring 2002, and reducing the Triple Crown nominations to 358, its lowest total in 20 years. Of these horses, a scant 10 have recorded a BSF of 100 or more through February 19, 2005 (2.8%). While the tragedy in the Bluegrass three years ago can account for denying the crop a certain number of potentially outstanding progeny, the 2.8% represents a decrease of more than 100% in 100+ Beyer-earning runners in just two years.

The 10 of the Class of \'05 (Note that Going Wild has the distinction of being the first in the crop to 100+ Beyer in a route and a sprint):

Afleet Alex 102 (6f Sanford)
Declan\'s Moon 107 (7f DMR Futurity)
Diligent Prospect 102 (5f MSW)
Roman Ruler 106 (7f DR Futurity), 103 (6.5f Best Pal)
Going Wild 104 (6f MSW), 100 (9f Sham)
High Fly 100 (8f Aventura)
Proud Accolade 100 (8.5f Champagne)
Galloping Grocer 102 (9f Remsen)
Rockport Harbor 102 (9f Remsen)
Sweet Catomine 102 (8.5f BC JF)

The facts from 2003 and 2004 project that a third of these horses will not only make the Derby field, but finish at the top of the chart. In fact, two years in a row, horses that had achieved a 100+ Beyer not only made the field and finished at the top of the chart, but were 4 of the first 5 finishers and among 5 of the top 7!

Considering that Afleet Alex, Declan\'s Moon and Rockport Harbor all will be making just two starts before the Derby, it seems, barring injury, they are near certainties to make the field the first Saturday in May. Diligent Prospect is hurt, and the start of Roman Ruler\'s campaign continues to be delayed. Proud Accolade remains highly questionable as a hopeful due to distance limitations, and Sweet Catomine\'s Derby plans will not become clear until at least the Santa Anita Oaks.

That leaves us with the three 2-prep candidates as well Going Wild, High Fly and Galloping Grocer. Based on what we have seen the last two years, it would appear that you can look to this group of six as the most serious candidates for a blanket of roses on May 7. Of these six, three (Rockport Harbor/Servis, Going Wild/Lukas, High Fly/Zito) may have a decided edge as colts trained by conditioners that have already won a Derby.

Given the reshuffled scheduling of several of the prep season\'s series of races, it\'s certainly possible that a speedy candidate emerges suddenly in the next two months as West suggests. But the trend of the last several years points more toward runners that have already demonstrated the ability to run fast by now.

It happens that this group as a whole isn\'t running nearly as fast as three year olds of only one year ago. It could be that when it comes to picking this year\'s Derby winner, it will only make it that much easier to narrow the possibilities.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I like that story KaSept.

Firstly, its hard to use Beyer to calculate how fast the crop is. I don\'t Beyer himself has ever selected a Derby winner. But the only ground loss horses I see in your list are Afleet Alex, High Fly (last) and Sweetcat.

Maybe they are a bit slower than last year. Not sure how the aborted foal syndrome plays into that, but it may. You never know.

Afleet Alex and Rockport are still high on my list. Galloping Grocer was handled last, but I think his run was compromised and I\'m gonna give him one more. My thoughts are that Going Wild moved up this year, so if he did I think theres still time for others. You don\'t really have to winnow them down til May 7th, so I\'ll give them all their races til then.

I loved it.

I would point out that if the crop and/or triple crown nominee size has been severely compromised by MRLS, then it makes perfect sense that the crops of 3 years olds would be getting weaker. Outside of Smarty, I thought last year\'s crop was pretty dreadful. Late year performances against older horses supported that point of view.

So perhaps, instead of making \"100\" the magic bullet Beyer cutoff number, it might be better to make it \"95\" (or some other arbitrary one) to account for lower expectations.  

I am sure a similar analysis can be done with TG figures and it might shed more light on the subject.

By the way, I believe this crop has also  been been pretty dreadful \"so far\" other than a few horses that have shown significant ability in sprints, but may be suspect at the classic distances. Someone will win though - even if they aren\'t as good as some past winners.

[spa]

The Golden Rule....Who won a Grade 1 as a two year old....