Preakness

[Tim B.]

There is no point in further arguing (for those of us who have been) about what the major factor(s) was/were that lead to War Emblem winning the Derby.  It\'s over, he won.  Some cashed tickets, some didn\'t.

I think a bigger concern now is what may happen in the Preakness.  Obviously nobody can predict until the day of the race if there will any track bias, nor do we know exactly who will be opposing him this time around.  My concern is that he may just go out to the lead again and the other riders may just take holds again, making sure they avoid getting their own horses involved in a suicide duel.  They did it once, so what\'s to say that wouldn\'t do it again?  Proud Citizen and Medaglia D\'Oro proved in the Derby that they are fully-capable of running strong races without using wire-to-wire tactics, so I wouldn\'t think those two would be gunning too fast early.  Is it possible that War Emblem and Victor Espinoza steal the Preakness too?  The level of competition certainly won\'t be quite as tough as in the Derby, right?

[Michael D.]

I think fastspeed made a great point about the human overreaction factor. Looks like there will be some pace in the Preakness. Given the speed favoring nature of Pimlico, I do not say this with a ton of confidence, but with 14 horses probable, I will most likely take a stand against WE. If the track comes up fair (and fast), and WE draws a post outside of Booklet, PC, and Md\'0, I will be eliminating the horse comletely.

[Michael D.]

Now I am reading about horses getting bumped because of earnings ?? I will put this on record now, if Sunday Break gets bumped, I will never again watch another triple crown race. Seriously, it\'s time to add a  A-E list in these races.

[Tim B.]

I would agree that Booklet will PROBABLY be sent for the lead, as he is clearly one-dimensional at this point.  But who knows?  And what\'s to say that War Emblem won\'t get a cushy spot stalking Booklet, who appears overmatched to me?  You don\'t believe he can pass Booklet?  I would think he\'d make the lead by the time they turn for home.  Whether he hangs on or not is a different argument.

[Tim B.]

I don\'t follow this comment.  What are you talking about?  What earrings?

[Michael D.]

Preakness field is limited to 14 starters. As of now, 16 are being considered. Two would be eliminated because of lack of earnings (although the formula is a bit different than the one Churchill uses). And of now, it looks like Sunday Break would sneak in, but you just never know.

[MO]

Lots of talk about War Emblem in the Preakness. I say he doesn\'t need the lead as alluded to in my post about the Fair Grounds race in November. Furthermore he will be favored. Don\'t forget the human element and the timing of Seattle Slew\'s death.

MO

[tonyk]

What about HH rebounding for a score in the Preakness ? (assuming his connections run),any comments ,opinions?

[Michael D.]

Interesting point Teekay. For some reason, I think the \"wise\" handicappers (who all tossed HH in the derby) will take a closer look at him in the Preakness. He closed well at Gulf and Kee, so the tight turns should\'t affect him all that much. Maybe a late run to fill out the exotics?

[tonyk]

Thanks for you reply

[JR]

Reference is often made to Pimlico\'s tight turns and yet, I read recently that both Pimlico and Churchill are 1 mile ovals with Churchill having a longer stretch than Pimlico by maybe a hundred feet or so. Wouldn\'t that suggest that Churchill has the tighter turns since the turn would have to be smaller in circumference?

[tonyk]

It just means that the lenght from the quarter pole to the wire is longer .

[tonyk]

Check that ,the lenght from the top of the stretch to the wire is longer .

[tread]

Uhh, isn\'t churchill 1 mile and 1/8?

[Mall]

It\'s more than a suggestion JR. On the one hand, maybe that\'s why there have been only 3 wire to wire winners. On the other hand, Pim is notorious for juicing up the track on Preakness Day.

I saw 3 of SS\'s big wins & don\'t see the comparison with WE. However, even though the jury\'s still out, WE does remind me a little of Tiznow prior to his 1st Classic.

To throw in another factor re the Preakness, there are some very astute observers who claim that the key to learning something about how a horse may do is to carefully observe how the horse gallops out after the Derby. These individuals are saying that WE\'s gallop out was one of the best, if not the best, they have observed for many yrs.