Hey Chris

[TGJB]

Out of curiosity, what would happen to WE in your model if you remove the anti-front runner aspect?

[derby1592]

TGJB,

The current model assumes a typically fast pace in the Derby and thus discounts the chances of front-runners. If you somehow deduced that this year\'s pace would not hurt the front-runners and ran the model under that assumption (i.e., assume a neutral pace), you would get significantly different results (see below).

Not surprisingly, War Emblem and Medaglio D\'Oro would have moved up quite a bit and War Emblem would have been flagged as the biggest betting \"edge\" according to the model.

Perfect Drift still would have been predicted to be the most likely winner and a good value.

Proud Citizen still would not have been given much of a chance but keep in mind that the model does not have a \"Lukas in Kentucky\" factor.

Chris

P.S. Thanks for being curious.

*****

The Model\'s top 10 in order of estimated likelihood of winning

Actual Finish, Horse, Post-time odds, \"break even\" odds, and Betting \"Edge\"

3, Perfect Drift, 7.9, 3.0, 127%   
4 - troubled trip, Medaglio D\'oro, 6.9, 6.2, 10%
1, War Emblem, 20.5, 6.7, 179%
7, Harlan\'s Holiday, 6.0, 9.8, -35%
10 - injured, Saarland, 6.9, 11.0, -34%   
5, Request For Parole, 29.8, 11.2, 152%
6, Came Home, 8.2, 17.8, -51%
11, Blue Burner, 24.2, 34.5, -29%
2, Proud Citizen, 23.3, 35.8, -34%
9, Essence of Dubai, 10.0, 37.3, -71%

[Mall]

Chris: You are at least as serious a student of the Derby as most of the characters who have written books on the subject, but as one who is skeptical of mechanical rules which come up with either automatic winners or tosses, I have these Qs re the \"no horse who has ever run below a 6 as a 2yr old has ever won the Derby\" rule: (1) Am I correct in assuming that you are referring to TG nos.? (2) How many horses who have run sub-6s as a 2 yr old have actually run in the Derby? (3) Of those who have run, how many actually figured in terms of what we might call traditional handicapping?

I\'m also curious about the input you used to run the model. What was your judgment regarding the possibility that WE would pair and/or run a race within 2pts of the 1, and was that judgment influenced by past pace & track bias considerations?

[derby1592]

Mall,

I think the sub-6 (using TG) angle is very useful for future book wagering. Not nearly so for the Derby itself. If a horse runs a sub-6 fig as a 2yo, I would hesitate to play it in the future book. It is likely to be one of the favorites and the history of such horses is not very encouraging. My Derby model only implicitly factors this in.  The model is not \"black and white\" and does not have any hard and fast rules but it weights various factors and rolls them all up into an overall odds line.

There have been some horses (probably a longer list than the one below) that ran sub-6 TG figs as a 2yo but never made it to the Derby (e.g., Macho Uno, Siphonic, Repent, Officer). Unfortunately, I don\'t have that complete list.

I do have a list such horses that did actually make it into the Derby over the last 8 years: Afternoon Delights (5.25 as 2yo), Favorite Trick (5.75), Excellent Meeting (5), High Yield (5), More Than Ready (4.25), Captain Steve (3.75), AP Valentine (5.5), Songandaprayer (6), Express Tour (5) Point Given (3.5) and of course, Came Home (4), Harlan’s Holiday (2.5) and Request For Parole (3.5).

As you suspected, certainly not enough data to make a strong case but enough to make you wonder. Some of these horses may have had other strong factors (pace and breeding) to explain their poor performances. However, it is a fact that no horse has yet run a sub-6 fig as a 2yo and managed to hit the board in the Derby. The trend in recent years has been toward more of these fast 2yos but such horses have yet to make an impact on the first Saturday in May.

Regarding War Emblem, I had a negative read on his condition and put his chances of running within 2 pts of his top at only about 1 out of 3. However, he was the fastest horse in the race if you factored in likely ground loss based on running style and post and he fared pretty well on all the other modifying factors except for his front-running style which was viewed negatively by the model because of the typically hot Derby pace. Taking all that into account (the good and the bad – no hard and fast rules) he rated out as one of the main contenders and a good value play at the odds. If you take out the anti-front-runner bias, he rates out much higher.

I hope answers your questions.

Thanks

Chris