Strub

The Strub is a weaker race than the Donn. There's also more potential for a good price.  

Rock Hard Ten will be the favorite off his Malibu prep (a weak Grade 1) and his overall record.  Personally, I think he deserves to be the favorite. However, I expect him to be over-bet based on his reputation.  Let's just say that most of those that think he has a lot of potential are probably too high on him based on what he has done so far. Those that dislike him probably haven't seen him run often enough to notice the obvious star potential.  

Horse like Castledale and Imperialism were of similar ability to RHT before having their campaigns interrupted.  Castledale, especially, had a useful prep for this race and could move forward a lot.  

Love of Money has been out for a few months, but has been working very well. He looks like the dominant speed and does his best running loose on the lead.  He's certainly good enough to wire these if he's close to ready, gets loose, and no one (most likely RHT, second most likely Castledale) steps up to fulfill the promise they showed last spring.  The big problem is the question mark surrounding how he will actually run.  His last race was 4 months ago and it wasn't good.  

After that there are a lot of horses of similar ability. I'll take a better look at replays, charts  etc... tonight to see if there's anyone I might want to go fishing with.



Post Edited (02-04-05 16:51)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I agree the interesting race is the Strub. Rock Hard didn\'t scare anyone away there and he still hasn\'t run a race against handicap horses, nor one that was particularly fast. That doesn\'t mean he can\'t, but at low odds I\'d be prone to make him prove it.

The Donn is a five horse field. Four of them ran really nice races last, but Roses in May deserves to be favored. He\'s giving some significant weight, but he\'s come out firing every time off the bench. I tend to think Eddington found another notch last. That was the notch he needed last year. If hes found two notches he could make it interesting.

[Saddlecloth]

the strub is a restricted race for four year olds, the donn is an open event, it should be stronger

The Grading is appropriate in this case.

The Donn is a Grade I and the Strub is a Grade II. I am somewhat class oriented and like to examine the records of the actual horses in a race because conditions and grading are not always in sync with reality.



Post Edited (02-05-05 14:01)

[Michael D.]

if they let love of money jog on a loose lead - good-bye. two other speed types entered, if they go and make LOM work, he might feel the extra pounds late (123 vs 116 in pa derby). ml of 3-1 sounds fair. RHT can be brilliant, could win by five. as usual, low odds the issue. i think imperialism has a chance. mulhall does well bringing them back on three weeks rest, stats say a run in the \"2.5\" to \"3.0\" range is coming. has to beat two faster horses, and solis has to find a way to save a bit of ground around the second turn, so odds must be generous. i will key at ml of 6-1 or higher. castledale looks nice from post 4. has decent # power. i will toss in my creed underneath at long odds.

R7: longshot stab, #1 papi chullo. last race was a bit slow, but he finished nice. has a half sis by rizzi that ran fast going long. has tactical speed, and gets valenzuela from post 1. since the fast ones drew outside, i will use PC at ml of 20-1. $3.3 mio chekhov might improve a lot, but figures to lose some ground. a use underneath.

>Rock Hard didn\'t scare anyone away there and he still hasn\'t run a race against handicap horses, nor one that was particularly fast.<

Agreed. He shouldn\'t scare anyone away. However, he doesn\'t face anyone here that is proven against high quality horses in fast time either. He\'s against horses just like himself - essentially horses that showed some potential at 3 that are still looking to fulfill that promise (primarily Castledale, Love of Money and Imperialism)

One of the keys is obviously Love of Money.

He has one very fast race loose on the lead against mediocre horses. It looks to me like he could \"potentially\" get loose here too. If no one presses him, it will take a  big effort to beat him if he\'s 100%.

Then again, you can\'t be as confident about a horse with only one big effort when he\'s  coming off a 4 month layoff and a terrible race. You have to dscount his chances of firing a big race a little and not evaluate him strictly as though he\'s going to duplicate that fast effort for certain.

IMO, he is less certain to fire a big shot than RHT, but his best race is faster.

In a situation like this I prefer RHT (strictly from a propability point of view -not a value point of view) because I think RHT does have a much faster race in him than he has shown so far and could win even if LOM gets loose and comes back 100%.

It\'s going to be a tough race to bet because I think RHT is probably going to get over-bet, but IMO probably not by enough to create positive value elsewhere unless they totally overlook Castledale.



Post Edited (02-05-05 12:00)

[marcus]

The one thing which makes the Big Race interesting to me is With Distinction . If one can throw out the favorite Rock Hard Ten ( from the win spot ) due to a pattern that shows early signs of deterioration and the short price and understands that Love Of Money is fairly unlikely to run back to the negative number today , then accordingly , in attempting to think this race through if one likes Castledale ( or even Skipaslew ), With Distinction should also merit consideration - a pattern about the same , only faster with the nice price ...

I rate With Distinction a notch below some of the other contenders because he hasn\'t run fast against anyone of quality. You also have to assume he will run back to his best race just to get into the thick of it. Certainly not impossible for a lightly raced horse like this, but IMO you need a very good price to go that deep into the field.



Post Edited (02-05-05 17:12)

[marcus]

Agreed - It took me a while to come around to a \" final answer \" on the race although  I like it when this type of horse gets negative or zero publicity . I felt mostly that the situation afforded me the opertunity to \" take a shot \" With Distinction ... it\'s not that this one is to tough too come up with but rather just perhaps a lower % play . I was live in the late p-3 today @ aqu going into the 3rd leg - now to have only come up w/ that result would have certainly been tough !



Post Edited (02-05-05 17:11)

[Michael D.]

papi runs a close second. odds only 8-1 though.

4-5 on RHT seems silly. Unfortunately, I don\'t feel confident enough in how Love of Money will run today to take a stand at 3-1 or thereabouts even with one of the cheaper speeds out of the race. I usually only take 3-1/7-2 on horses I think are clearly best that I am also confident will fire their best shot. I\'m not sure he\'s best without a clear lead and slow pace and he\'s off for 4 months. Castledale is also getting bet a bit. There\'s probably some value in there somewhere, but it\'s a pass for me.



Post Edited (02-05-05 19:16)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I had him figured to beat all but the sprinter who i couldn\'t gage. Thats horseracing.

[Michael D.]

$12 and change to place, and a huge exacta. i have neither. when he opened up at 2-1 i lost all interest.

[Michael D.]

ouch!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I took a huge small bet flyer on the Strub. I don\'t care what anyone says, RHT is never gonna run with the best.