Two ones and No Bounce

[Point_Given_Gal]

I bought and thoughly analyzed the Thorograph sheets for the Derby and I noticed that War Emblems last 2 races on Thorograph were both rated a \"1\"  (which was impressive) but before that his last race was an \"8\" or a \"10\" or something and I thought that for sure War Emblem would be challenged for the lead and bounce with a 3 or 4.  

I was at a Derby Party in Las Vegas and you could hear a pin drop when War Emblem crossed the line.  

I thought that WE might run well and I handicapped him as a top performer but based on Proud Citizen\'s number I did not see that he could be in the top 5.  

I had Perfect Drift on a Show ticket for a modest win but my other bets were losers.

I think your numbers for War Emblem were right on - I just thought he would bounce, and I thought that he would have company on the lead.  

How can you tell if a horse is going to bounce or not?

[fastspeed]

and how do you know if a stock is going to go up ?

there are too many variables (age, sex, distance, size of jump, previous reactions, time since race, trainer(sadly), etc etc)in bounces and ultimately you will have to use your judgement to determine the LIKELIHOOD of a bounce and factor that in the price you\'re getting.  We\'ve all seen horses that seemed sure to bounce that didn\'t - it\'s not an exact science.

[Point_Given_Gal]

Thanks.  Its apparent that my thinking that War Emblem would bounce was way off base!!

If I may ask though I dont recall Proud Citizen\'s numbers being outstanding at all.  Perfect Drift\'s numbers looked good as did Medaglia\'s but did Proud Citizen stoand out to anyone else.  Certainly if you went 10 deep he did but I only wanted to go 6 deep and why the hell did I put Saarland in there (probably because he is gorgeous) but the threes in his last few races were nothing to bank on thats for sure.

[TGJB]

How much time do you have? This is a simple question that can\'t be answered simply. I suggest that if you haven\'t already listened to the intro seminar you do so, and read the ROTW, both archived and ongoing. Anyone else who wants to chime in, feel free.

[TGJB]

If you did not already do so, you should check out the Derby seminar in ROTW. WE clearly could have bounced- he would have been a toss at 2-1. But at 20-1, with his last 2 figures almost certainly good enough to at least make the exacta with an inside trip, he was clearly value.

[Point_Given_Gal]

I did listen to the seminar last Thursday before I left and I checked out the ROTW this morning.  

Thank you. I do appreciate your help.

Still learning.

Shelly

[Mall]

The \"bounce\" concept was a brilliant one when it was introduced, what is it now, 30 yrs ago? However, since that time, little or no research has been down to determine when & under what circumstances & how often it actually applies, so it has come in my view to represent an easy & convenient explanation for a wide variety things, many of which have nothing to do with the original concept, not to mention the fact that things have a tendency to change over 3 decades.

As part of my preparation for one of the handicapping contests I entered last yr, I used TG sheets to handicap the 3 tracks which were part of the contest every day for 3 mos. What I learned, or I think I learned from what is concededly a small sample, is that in  young & developing horses, pairing up is much more often a positive sign than a negative sign, which is otherwise consistent with my experience, which unfortunately for me probably includes many more yrs than Point Given Gal has been alive. Someone whose opinion I respect has also done research which confirms that so-called \"bounces\" occur a lot less often than most sheets players might imagine.

I\'m not sure how much this helps you Point Given Gal, who made her big score on FuPeg, but don\'t believe everything you hear or read when it comes to the \"bounce\"

[Point_Given_Gal]

Thank you Mall.  You have been very helpful.  I appreciate your reply.