ROCKPORT HARBOR

[marcus]

Rockport Harbor looks very impressive thus far and must be considered a viable early morning line favorite to capture the 2005 Triple Crown .
   After being out front of the pack , and perhaps unduely so , with critisism for Smarty Jones\'s 3 year old campaign ( all well intentioned of course )and after some enlightenment that I recieved on this web page I have only positive things to say about everyone connected with that horse .
 Rockport Harbor has totally awesome Thorograph numbers and pattern for his only three career races going into today and by the way his performance looked this afternoon @AQU he probably ran another big effort , maybe a new top .
With young horse\'s running fast or negitive numbers as if it were common place nowaday\'s it\'s no longer a question of simply \" To fast too young ? \" anymore . How a horse is managed and not to forget to mention racing luck are as important as all the talent a runner might posess
 Each horse must be evaluated on it\'s on merits and the kinds of fast numbers that horse\'s are running now probably should not be viewed lets say as \"off the board\" but rather for what they are - numbers in the minus level or negative register . So my feeling on Rockport Harbor today is that his numbers might be to fast too young \"not\" . Now I only wish I could have figured to play Lion Tamer today @ 13-1 ...



Post Edited (11-27-04 16:44)

[Michael D.]

he caught the worst remsen field ever assembled and ran over a very quick track, one that suited his style perfectly (the fig must be pretty fast). in the future, i imagine he will run very well when he finds these same conditions. after a prep or two next year, however, i don\'t think he will find the races so easy. i\'m guessing he is a very good speedball that will get cooked when he faces the big boys in the spring and summer (he reminds me a lot of read the footnotes). just a guess though, for now he has done everything very well..... as for getting odds on this horse to win the triple crown, you will find plenty of offers out there. BTW, i bet galloping grocer when he was 2-1, then watched the odds drop to 7-5 in one tick, then he goes off at even money. wasn\'t the best of bets at 2-1, and i wanted no part of the even money bet (was too late though)...........



Post Edited (11-28-04 09:54)

[Michael D.]

BTW, GG ran faster than RH (because of ground loss), and JR said GG changed back to his left lead after he hit him the first time, costing him some momentum...... way too soon to be talking triple crown for RH.

[big ant]

I watched the race ,and he was impressive; however, he seemed to be hopping around to keep his weight off his right rear leg on the way to the winners circle.I think when he veered in in the lane (slightly) he may have injured himself.I don\'t feel GG was pushed as hard as the winner and i think he still has something in the tank,to me he is the real interesting horse.

[jimbo66]

Well, with this year\'s two year old crop being a bit undistinguished (look who won the BC), I can\'t blame anybody for getting enthusiastic about Rockport Harbor.  He showed some courage in the lane.  Neither horse had been hit by the whip before or been in a \"dogfight\", so I think they both responded pretty well.  At the wire, it appeared GG was coming at him again, but it is hard to say if he would have gotten there in a few more jumps.

Michael, surprised you would think you were getting 2-1 on GG.  The exacta was always a bit shorter with GG on top and the pick-3 will pays suggested co-favorites, not Rockport as the favorite.  Anyway, not a great betting race.  It was tough to make a case for anybody else in the race.  

Anybody notice the ridiculous betting on Purge in the Cigar Mile.  I know I am beating a dead horse into the ground, but this was one more example of the MISERABLE crop of three year olds this year.  Purge was one of the fastest, next to Smarty, and he wasn\'t even competitive, even off of a freshening, which is his best in the past.  How he could be 3-1 against older horses is beyond me.  Even throwing him out, it was tough to come up with Lion Tamer (I thought).  I figured the Frankel was worth a shot at the price, although Kela would have been my bet had he run.

[marcus]

MD/BA/J66 -Your probably right - it\'s way to early to annoint a \'05 triple crown winner right now , however I couldn\'t resist . I know that I\'m not taking into account a good many other 2 yo\'s around the country who don\'t yet(but perhaps will soon)fit the derby profile .
 Anytime these young horse\'s run big efforts there are always potential soundness issues - look at GG\'s 3 career TG #\'s - he might already be showing early signs of deterioration , I don\'t know what he ran yesterday but I doubt it was a new top or faster than the winner . I did ponder last evening as to why the whip wasn\'t used more on RH , to not ask the horse for any more than he was willing to give could mean there is intent to nurse a physical problem . To not push RH too win due to the fact that he\'s ahead of the game in earnings dosen\'t wash to well .
Although we don\'t know at this time how RH & GG came out of saturday\'s race , I still feel the TG numbers on Rockport Harbor\'s 3 races prior to yesterday point him out as a potential monster .
 I\'m looking forward again this year to \'05 Derby futures wagering where I can hopefully take a shot at some BIG prices ...



Post Edited (11-28-04 11:41)

>Even throwing him out, it was tough to come up with Lion Tamer (I thought).<

It wasn\'t that tough if you considered the likely pace and the impact it might have on the outcome. There was a reasonable probablity of a fast pace in this race given the number of pure and presser speeds. (see my Cigar analysis before the race)

Personally, I thought the winner of the pace battle (assuming it did occur) would go on to win and Lion Tamer could suck up for second under that scenario. That\'s what often happens in pace battles. The pace winds up being fast for the winner, but within his range and doesn\'t kill him. However, he torches all the other battlers. The exception is when it is VERY extreme. Then they all die.

That\'s the way I would have played my ticket had I gotten involved. I would have keyed Pico Central over Lion Tamer as my main ticket and probably used Badge of Silver/Purge over him small. Then I would have had some small tickets with Lion Tamer over the same 3 in case the duel got extreme.

[Michael D.]

jimbo,
i thought the crowd would get carried away with RH, and let GG go off a bit higher, being that he is a NY bred gelding and all. i was looking at too many damn tracks, so i was trying to get my bets in early. some guys gave lion tamer a huge new top in his previous race. i guess that frankel horse that beat him, mass media, is a real freak. you had to assume that LT really did improve that much and the last was not a fluke. i thought pico would be very tough to beat..... only used LT underneath. i think the aqu strip was very quick yesterday, might have helped RH and GG keep going at the end, and might have made that one move that LT made a bit easier to sustain without flattening out.

[ezgoer89]

Here\'s why he was favoring his leg...

http://www.finalturngallery.com/album89/Web_RH_cut_dk4890

>some guys gave lion tamer a huge new top in his previous race. i guess that frankel horse that beat him, mass media, is a real freak. you had to assume that LT really did improve that much and the last was not a fluke.<

Not sure whose figures you are referring to, but IMO yesterday\'s win for Lion Tamer had little or nothing to do with him running a new top in this race or his last race.

People that believe that pace doesn\'t mean much might assign him a new top for yesterday\'s race in order to fit everyone else\'s figures into place. However, without even trying to make figures for yesterday I am fairly certain that would be a misunderstanding of the result.

No matter what figure makers give him for yesterday\'s Cigar (depending on methodology), the primary reason he won is that all the contenders that looked a little faster or more likely to improve used themselves hard early and thus ran slower than they would have under an average pace scenario. This gave him an advatage.

IMO, it couldn\'t be clearer going in that there was some potential for a duel setting it up for a closer. IMO, the race development (visually and fractions) and results are too obvious to think that pace wasn\'t a factor in the outcome.



Post Edited (11-28-04 18:12)

[Michael D.]

disagree...... pletcher has this horse better than ever. the horse exploded, not just visually, but fractionally as well. this horse could have run plenty of times this year in a race with a wicked pace like that and not run as fast. pace played a role in the outcome no doubt, but don\'t try to tell me pletcher hasn\'t got more out of this horse later in the year than he did earlier.

[Michael D.]

ClassH,
you said earlier that LT had not shown enough yet to win this....... that is incorrect, some people had his last race plenty fast enough to win this.



Post Edited (11-28-04 18:27)

I do not believe LT had shown enough in his prior races to win yesterday\'s race assuming an honest pace. He had shown enough ability to make his presence felt assuming a duel on the front end though. I wasn\'t assuming an honest pace and was correct. If some other figure maker had his last race as fast as Pico Central\'s best races I believe those figures are not to be taken seriously (Rags?). I know this is a subjective matter (who are you going to believe), but you\'d have a tough time convincing me otherwise. Sometimes people have the right horse for the wrong reason.    

I haven\'t tried to analyze the figures for yesterday\'s race(s) yet, but IMO, he would NOT have beaten Pico Central \"if\" that one ran his \"typical race\" and was not \"used so hard\" early.

IMO he certainly wouldn\'t have beaten Badge of Silver. IMO, BOS ran the best race by far. He pressed that fast pace 3 wide and didn\'t get beaten badly at all. That\'s a dreadful trip as you are dueling, losing ground, and working even harder than the other duelers to stay even with them because you are wide. If Frankel can hold him together (big if), that horse is going to be an excellent sprint/miler.

If LT did run a new top yesterday, he still benefitted from the duel because IMO he was still 3rd best in that field. Closers always look good picking up duelers as the fractions begin to slow. I\'m not trying to take anything away from his performance, it just looks better than it was.



Post Edited (11-28-04 19:07)

[Michael D.]

ok,

1. you say the figure makers who had him fast enough to win \"can not be taken seriously\"
2. you thought he was too slow
3. the race has been run, and the horse ran about as fast as the figure makers who \"can not be taken seriously\" had him run previously and won the race.    

AND YOU ARE STILL GOING TO ARGUE THAT THEY HAD HIS PREVIOUS RACE WRONG???

 i like your pace analysis in these races, but you have to leave open the possibility that LT just got better, and ran a fast one because he was really wound up by one of the best trainers in the game.

[jimbo66]

CH,

I don\'t disagree with your general views on pace.  But as for this race, several points:

1.  You are seriously redboarding.  If it
\"couldn\'t be more obvious going in that there would be a pace meltdown\", then where was your post before the race?

2.  I don\'t think it was \"obvious\" that there would be a pace meltdown.  Cudos to you if you saw it, but I didn\'t and I am guessing others didn\'t either.  Purge was cutting back to a mile after longer races with slower paces.  He figured to stalk, not be on top of the pace.   Not sure who you expected to run with Pico.  

3.  I don\'t think there was a \"pace meltdown\".  Take a look at the fractions here and compare them with other runnings of this race and races like it (Met Mile, also a one turn mile).  The pace is always hot.  Almost always seems \"suicidal\".  

4.  Watch the replay, Pico looked well within himself going 44 to the half.  Purge was being worked on by the jockey, but Pico was within himself.

5.  Michael, I guess what you are saying is that Len (Rags) had the race before for Lion Tamer much stronger than Jerry did.  If so, congrats to Len.  He got it right.  Lion Tamer was a \"throwout\" on Jerry\'s figures.  He needed a new top to even hit the tri.