weights

[shanahan]

quick thoughts appreciated - how much does a weight change really effect your handicapping?  For example - does 3 lbs give you pause?  5 ?  greater than 5 a toss?  When they put up program changes, and you are already at the track, if it\'s 1-2 lbs, do you really care?

I only look at large weight shifts. However, I operate under a different set of assumptions than most TG players. I assume the figures are just a first step approximation of a horses ability. So a couple of pounds here or there is much lower on my scale of importance than for some people. If the horses are that close in ability, my bet has more to do with odds and the general trend in form than minor weight shifts or arcane patterns in the figures.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Weight is a variable. I think the scale TGraph uses is a good tool.

The Clark is an interesting race.

Saint Liam - He obviously jumped up under Dutrow. Not only is he fast, he appears to be the controlling speed. Anyone want to postulate a pace scenario that compromises him? Additionally, he seems to like the surface. His \"best\" races under his previous trainer were on the surface. He\'s also had a little freshing and he seems to have run lights out for Dutrow under similar circumstances. Of the things that can beat him \"bounce\" and \"surface condition\" seem most \"probable\". I\'m going to keep my eye on the results. If the track gets slow, thats probably the best chance to work an upset. The track was \"good\" but fair Thursday. The races were a bit slow but for Commentator who humbled his field as bad as he beat Eurosilver

I look at three horses with a chance to top the Saint. They are Sir Cherokee, Eurosilver and Perfect Dread. Sir Cherokee and Euro on unrealized potential. Dread on a nice looking race in the B.C. (all things considered). I favor Dread the most for an upset based on his fondness for the strip and excellent preparation. I like his weight assignment as well. (Theres several with light imposts) I still think for it to happen something has to be amiss with Saint.

I\'m not high on Frankel\'s horse. (and that may be cuz I\'m not looking at TGraph) If I bet this race I\'m leaving him out of the top two spots, so he\'s liable to beat me.

I think I\'m all over the chalk so I may look to hit straight tri\'s. Good Luck.

CtC

[Michael D.]

i think you just have to go with the science. use the TG formula for weight and judge accordingly. how many times have you disregarded a 2 lb shift and lost by a head?

>how many times have you disregarded a 2 lb shift and lost by a head?<

I never tried to figure that out. I know I cashed some tickets over the years when I used to ignore weight completely. When I look back at those races now I would be hard pressed to play them as strongly as I did because of negative weight shifts. This is one of those things that I think either gets built into the odds (or even worse \"overbuilt\")

I am willing to concede that weight is a factor, but I think the premise that anyone\'s figures are so accurate as to make very small shifts in weight important to be incorrect.

If it comes down to that, you should probably be focusing on odds, possible changes in form, extreme race development possibilities etc.... and not a couple of pounds.



Post Edited (11-26-04 14:24)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well,

I made some good decisions on the Clark. I favored Saint Liam to win. I tossed Lundy\'s Liability and I liked Perfect Dread to run a game race to Saint Liam. I also liked the Zito horse on Kentucky and the nice figure from early on B.C. Day. Unfortunately, i liked him for third.

Thats horseracing

CtC

The odds looked about right to me. I passed the race. I coudn\'t take St Liam at that price and I didn\'t like Perfect Drift or anyone else enough to try to beat him.

The Cigar Mile on the other hand looks like a race where a bet may be found....where I\'m not sure...but I have something to keep me busy tonight :-)

[spa]

Is there a ROTW ??

[spa]

I\'m taking Kela/Pico Central/Unforgettable Max over Potrisunrise/Purge/Lion Tamer/Badge Of Silver.........The bet looks like a straight 8/1/2, see you at The PALMS.

[JEB]

taking Purge but the two favs look formidable but Kela\'s 3 big-figs in a row has to end sometime.

There\'s a lot of pure and stalker speed in this race. It\'s going to take a huge effort to win on the front end.

Pico Central was excellent early in the year. He came back a short horses off the freshening layoff, but quickly returned to excellent form 2nd off the layoff. Will probably faces a lot of pressure early, middle, or both, but at least he has the rail.  

Kela has been in excellent form of late and has a very good race at the distance. He is a closer in a field that is almost certain to produce a lively pace for him to close into. The only question mark I have about him is his age. Very few horses reach this kind of peak at age 6 after so many races and hold it long. If anything, at this age they tend to get sharp for a few races and then head back down quickly. I thought that was a little bit of knock on him in the BC, but he came through with another good effort. The small probability of him heading back down is the only thing that prevents me from thinking he deserves favoritism over Pico Central. Tough call between the two.    

Purge is lighty raced and eligible to get better, but it\'s always tough for me to take a horse off more than a 2 month layoff in a Grade I race. Many horses that run very well off layoffs find the demands of a Grade I off a layoff a little more than they can handle. I want an extra tick or two on the board to compensate for this negative. Might sit a nice stalking race.  

Badge of Silver is another with a chance to explode forward, but faces pressure on the front end and \"will have to improve\" to win.

Lion Tamer hasn\'t shown enough to win yet, but he has the style to suck up and get a piece of this if some of the better pressers collapse due to the pace.

I think bias (if any) and pace could have a huge impact. As always, the key is price.

[JEB]

Kela is scratched so that does not help the price of Purge. How short will Pico Central be now?

With Kela out I\'d have to think that Pico Central will and should be a fairly solid  favorite. I\'m seeing 6/5 right now.

That\'s nowhere near long enough for me to take, but I don\'t want Purge off a mini-layoff against this field at 2-1 - 5/2 either.

I believe the win odds are approximately correct. Nothing is way out of line. If someone put a gun to my head I might use Lion Tamer in the exotics (especially second). In the event the pace is extremely hot, some of the speeds that look better than him could use themselves up enough to cost them the place/show spots and allow for a suck up second like Lion Tamer or even During if he rates with blinkers off.

[phil45]

I agree with ch...the win odds, I think, are about correct.

and since the don\'t put guns to our head, I think I\'ll just watch some very fine animals run really fast and see if Pico can lock up the Sprint title today.

I am passing the race. I think the odds are reasonable and I\'m not going to play around on the assumption of a duel that sets up one of the closers for second.