weights

Well the duel wound up taking more out of the frontrunners than I thought and Lion Tamer got the top spot. Had I gotten involved (gun to my head), I would have cashed, but it would have been one of my smaller tickets. I would have had him underneath Pico Central as my main ticket. Fun race. At least I had the right idea by focusing on Lion Tamer from a value perspective even though there was no money involved.

[jbelfior]

I agree with CH\'s assessment of horses competing in Grade 1 races off of layoffs (see TIMO in Holywd Derby). Nonetheless, I still got suckered into using PURGE.

Which brings me to my next point. Anyone think that this year\'s 3 year old crop leaves something to be desired? Can anyone tell me any 3yo that made any impression when running against graded elders??

Not to take anything away from the accomplishements of SMARTY JONES, however recent performances by the likes of PURGE and BIRDSTONE against older have not exactly flattered him.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

Joe B.

I agree with you. I think there were a number of 3 yos that showed some early potential but they came up very short on the accomplishment list as the year developed and they were tested against older horses.  Other than a few \"suspect\" fast speed figures they didn\'t do much. I supect that those that have more faith in the accuracy of every single figure and/or that dismiss quality issues will disagree and make excuses, but I think other than Smarty the crop was weak.

Perhaps Rock Hard Ten will develop. He may have been overrated at one point, but IMO there\'s still some potential there for the new trainer.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Handicappers have to admit that the 2001 crop has not faired well against olders. However, you also have to keep in mind how much of the 2001 Crop is left. Smarty and Lion Heart never got to face them. TCE and Birdstone went bad in their first tries against them. I\'m really not sure what Rock Hard Ten and Eddington are doing right now. Purge is one of the better ones left and the NYRA mile was his first crack at olders, but Purge has always been an inconsistent horse. Sometimes he runs big sometimes he doesn\'t. He was certainly better than his Arkansas Derby effort and he was better than he showed Saturday. Which is not to say he\'s going to beat Pico Central, but if he stays sound I have a sneaky suspicion he\'ll beat the 1-2 finishers in the NYRA mile. Will that validate the crop? Also keep in mind his T-Fig pattern. He ran a nice top in the Jim Dandy and then ran two points off it and was given three months of rest at a critical money making time of year for a three year old.

I still think theres others that will emerge as four year olds, but if they don\'t I can\'t dismiss the crop because the heavy hitters were injured.

CtC



Post Edited (11-29-04 13:23)

CTC,

Don\'t you think it\'s curious that almost every single time a top horse gets his head handed to him it\'s because he got hurt or bled and never because he wasn\'t good enough.

Personally, I think a lot of the supposed injuries are nothing more than an attempt to either excuse the loss and/or avoid future embarassment. In other words they are trying to protect the value of an overrated horse.

Not saying that\'s true in all cases, but I think it is true a lot of the time.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I hear what you\'re saying CH. \"Retiring a big reputation horse to retain his stud fees before he spits the bit on the track.\" I\'ve always felt Pulpit got out while the getting was good, but I don\'t feel the same about the \"Big Four\" though.  

Smarty could have come back. Fact is he was simply worth too much money at stud to an old man in ill health. He was thinking about the future of his family. I would have done the same thing in his shoes.

Birdstone suffered a fracture. I think he ran on it, but I don\'t think thats been determined. His coat was off pre Classic as well. The owner takes no chances with her horses. She loves them.

TCE and Lion Heart went bad with obvious injuries.

These were good horses and on his best day so is Purge. If he\'s sound he\'ll be back. I agree with Jerry\'s point in another thread, though I\'d never consciously separated them before. Each crop has three classes of horses: Those that are champion two year old contenders; Those that are Triple Crown contenders; and those that go on from there. Which is not to necessarily say good 3 yr olds can\'t be good older horses too. Just off the top of my mind Lemon Drop Kid and Behrens come to mind.

The triple crown trail can grind up horses. This crop was fast and I think a certain amount of grinding did occur.

Maybe I\'m somewhat of a \"show me\" man, but I don\'t think Lion Tamer beating Purge is a sign the crop was of poor quality.

CtC

CTC,

Here\'s how I see the crop.

Lion Heart was a precocious miler that ran some good races in the spring for a 3YO at that time. However, he didn't develop much. His Monmouth races were very overrated. He faced tomato cans.

Birdstone was a horse that only ran well when everything broke his way.  He won his maiden race when he got loose on the slop. He picked up a bunch of tired sprinters that used themselves up early in the Champagne. He took advantage of a duel in the Belmont and then in the Travers he beat a bunch of horses that either didn't want the distance or that got hurt - holding off the always hanging Cliff's Edge.  Mediocre over-rated horse that I would have retired ASAP if I owned him.

The Cliffs Edge was another of a long list of mediocre deep closing hangers that never beats top horses unless the race collapses.  I wish he were coming back because I'd love to bet against him again next year all year long too.

Purge is/was a decent mid distance horse that can put up good figures when he's not faced with significant pace pressure of high quality like he was in the Cigar and in one of his poor performances against Smarty. His race in the Travers was at a distance he did not want.  I still think he has some potential for next year in the mid distance races.

Rock Hard Ten showed some potential right off, but something obviously went wrong. Maybe he'll do better with the new trainer.    

Smarty was tons the best of a sorry triple crown bunch. His derby preps were very good.   His derby was OK. His Preakness was amazing, and his Belmont – though tough to measure - proved how much better than the rest of the crop he was. IMO, he was very good, but not quite as good as some figure makers think. He would have been tested against the best older horses like Roses and Ghost.



Post Edited (11-30-04 12:37)

[jbelfior]

CH--

Very well done.

I particularly like your comment regarding PURGE and his inability to handle high quality pace pressure. Perhaps the 2 month layoff going into the race had something to do with it. This is another example of why performance ratings need to be looked at within the context of how they were achieved.

Performance ratings are a powerful tool. You cannot attempt to beat this game without them.

However to make a race evaluation based solely on what that # is, makes that number \"a terrible thing to waste.\"



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jbelfior wrote:

 Perhaps the 2
> month layoff going into the race had something to do with it.

It was Three (3) months off. Something was somewhat amiss with the horse.

> This is another example of why performance ratings need to be
> looked at within the context of how they were achieved.

I agree with the above statement to some extent. But you have to put it in context if I get a \"competitive\" T-Fig horse outta \"tomato can\" races and he\'s 30-1 against \"class\" horses. Theres a pretty good chance (other considerations factored) I\'m going to play that way.
 
>
> Performance ratings are a powerful tool. You cannot attempt to
> beat this game without them.
>
> However to make a race evaluation based solely on what that #
> is, makes that number \"a terrible thing to waste.\"

Sure, my sentiments exactly, but I\'d add they are the single most important tool.  TGJB doesn\'t say \"bet the high fig. horse either\", he\'s always analyzing the field. Perusal of the ROTW makes that clear.

In the end you judge these things by how well you handicap them. I have to admit I lost money on the BC Classic, but thats the only race I\'ve bet some of the 2001 crop against olders. I did not bet Purge in the NYRA mile.

In hindsight, I do believe Zito raced Birdstone a little light. You can debate how that affected his injury and B.C. effort, but, the possibility exists he may not have been up to olders. I\'m more certain of the fact that the light racing schedule was due to Zito\'s belief the horse needed time. I don\'t think that is necessarily true. I think he was severely compromised in his Jim Beam and Kentucky Derby starts. He could have been my Lemon Drop Kid of the decade. I just couldn\'t put him atop Smarty.


CtC



Post Edited (11-30-04 14:25)