Figures for the Derby

[Michael D.]

Anybody care to take a shot at rating the Derby ??

My opinion:
War Emblem: 2.0 (perfect trip)
Proud Citizen: 3.00 (nice trip, wide though)
Perfect Drift: 3.00 (nice trip, slight check)
Medaglia d\'Oro: 2.75 (nightmare trip, plenty of energy left on the track)

I imagine JB will have the winner a point or so better, but come November, I think it will have become evident that this race was not super fast...........

I am certainly no expert at this, anybody think I am way off ?

[tonyk]

I have to believe the winner went back ,I think your right.

[Michael D.]

Thanks for the reply, I actually thought I would get a lot of negative feedback from this post. I tend to think that WE backed up a bit, and I think Md\'O had a ton of energy late, and would have been second with a clean trip...

[tonyk]

I don,t think Frankel\'s horse really want\'s all of that distance and to switch tactics in the derby is nuts .I think he gets beat anyway but I think you got to go with what got you there .Frankel was talking in the papers about how he won\'t get caught up in a speed duel but it never materialized .when I saw Eddie D. laying 3rd I knew it was curtains .I believe Frankel wanted to take the wood but his horse was not good enough .I really didn\'t like him in the derby .I spread in pick 3\'s and pick 4\'s and was taken down in the 7th I had WE ,PC,Saa,and PD on my ticket ,what more do I have to do ,I mead i finish first for four races in a row and cash nothing my only regret was leaving out Steve Jerkins horse out in the 7th race

[fastspeed]

I\'m guessing WE ran fater than that.  A top class thoroughbred on an easy lead will post a big number - he destroyed them and it\'s hard to believe he didn\'t better his SPT effort.

And when we were being hard on Mark O\' for repent not closing on WE, perhaps we were looking at the  derby 1-2 (injury permitting).

[Michael D.]

good to hear from you fastspeed, always nice to get an intelligent voice on the board. I just think that the trip was so perfect that the 2.01.1 does not justify a 0 or 0.5. I remember FuPeg going about the same time on about the same type track (I think, correct me if I am wrong) and getting what I thought was a well deserved 2 and change. In that race, FuPeg had a nice ground saving trip, but was reserved behind traffic for a mile or so, he probably could have gone faster.

[HP]

Michael will be proven right. One path all the way around. HP

[O]

A first-time poster\'s guess

War Emblem: 2.5
Proud Citizen: 2.75
Perfect Drift: 4.0
Medaglia d\'Oro: 3.5
Everyone else: X

[TGJB]

Jamie, you have no idea what you\'re getting into. But nice to have you here.

[TGJB]

Actually, no. Watch it again.

[Michael D.]

J.Ough, you may very well have it best in the end. I think WE deserves a 2.0 because he is a very tough horse on a speed favoring track. My personal opinion (worth nothing no doubt) is that WE could back up to a 4 o 5 if he has another horse looking him in the eye on a neutral track at a mile and a quarter. I will go further and say if he ever attempts a mile and a quarter over a dull surface his figure could head back towards 8 or 10.

[MO]

No need to apologize, but I am curious. Why all the guessing about who got what fig? Cantcha just wait till they are published?
MO

[Michael D.]

We are not guessing....simply giving our own opinions, and more important, finding out how others viewed the race. personally, i am very interested in seeing what all the fans who view this site think of the race. i am also very interested in seeing how JB\'s numbers compare to what we all think. aren\'t you curious to see how others viewed the race ?? what better way to express it than to give it your own number

[fastspeed]

Mark,

You\'re probably right we\'re restless, but then again it is clear that the vast majority of people on this board are more into numbers than you are.  You\'ve probably already made your post mortem judgement (using visual clues) and moved on - others may still need \"closure\".  Incidentally I was interested in your comments on how WE looked after the race - I distinctly remember (and this is not hindsight) thinking monarchos looked exhausted after the race last year (it was also hotter).  Then again, I\'ve also seen countless horses train and look like monsters after a big effort and still bounce to the moon, so you never know.  The \"human over-reaction effect\" will ensure that someone challenges WE in the preakness, so we will find out how good he is (it is clear that the same human over-reaction from last year\'s derby ensured that nobody wanted the lead this time - they\'ll go 21 and 44 next year).

[kev]

WE odds for the Preak.=== 5-2 to 7-2