how good is declan's moon?

[Michael D.]

coming up on hol\'s 8th, can\'t wait to see this guy run........ how many bet loucamania in the 7th off his buried oct 30 race? a bit more ground, and he flies right by the 10. tough beat there.



Post Edited (11-20-04 19:44)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

can\'t look at any more races...3rd samuel smith oatmeal stout...lol

Besides, thats Kalifornia, how can you handicap that? ....lol

If they dont\' race in New York, Florida or Kentucky why bother.....seriously we could use some of their substance oversight...its important



Post Edited (11-20-04 19:19)

[Michael D.]

CtC,
i have to put declan\'s moon on my list as one of my all time favorite 2 yr olds. he just ran 1:21.7, even with espinoza pulling him up before the wire. take a look at his pedigree, it screams distance (turf as well). they have to teach him to rate a bit better. he just hooked the pace setter around the quarter pole, and they went 6f in 1:08.2!!!! .... could be a great one.



Post Edited (11-20-04 19:29)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

ok i\'ll defer to you and call him the pro tem leader of the West. I\'m sure its not whats his name?...the Fupig Baffert trains....lol

Hope you cashed on him...prolly a exotic bet with a fav like that.

[Michael D.]

no money there. i like watching great young horses develope more than i like cashing on them (ie storm flag flying, you could never make money on her). i think DM went off at 2/5. the baffert horse (forget his name also) could be a good 6f to 1m horse eventually, but he has little chance of getting the longer distances (he was probably the easiest toss in this year\'s BC).

[miff]

Declans Moon looks good but his last eighth in 13.5 is unimpressive(admittedly eased) and the Baffert thing he beat in his prior start looked liked no count in the BC.He is still one to watch given the performances of the BC juveniles.


Big talk around the BIG A about NY Bred Galloping Grocer by Angel Cordero(works him in the AM) GG will face off with that undefeated, expensive colt of Servis this Saturday, I think.

[Michael D.]

yea, i can\'t wait for that race. galloping grocer is by AP jet, but should get some stamina from the dam side (northern dancer, princequillo back there). i have been a huge GG fan from day one. rockport harbor also looks like a good one. unbridleds song on top, but a copelan mare with a dosage of 11.0 on bottom. the remsen doesn\'t always go to the true routers, but RH will have serious problems when he goes against the big boys at the longer distances next year....... as for declan\'s moon, the last 1/8 was slow, but espinoza was pulling him up before the wire. they will have to teach him to rate much better though if he is going to have an impact in the triple crown next year. looks like a great week of racing coming up.

[Michael D.]

back to hollywood\'s 7th from yesterday..... excellent pick there TG, $60 exacta. i thought the 3 would get a much better trip than the 10, bbut corey got a bit stuck there, too late when he got free. well done guys.



Post Edited (11-21-04 16:28)

I am not convinced he\'s anything special yet.

Very few horses that debut with wire to  wire wins in 5 1/2 furlong maiden races go on to be top long distance horses no matter what their pedigree suggests. At best they wind up being very good middle distance horses. It\'s extremely rare to be blessed with very high sprint speed and great stamina at the same time unless you are a super horse or close.

So IMO, he is guilty (a sprinter/middle distance horse) until proven innocent.



Post Edited (11-21-04 15:47)

[Michael D.]

i disagree ClassH. i doubt DM will ever hit the 6f pole in 1:08 and go on to run a strong 9f, but it\'s a matter of teaching him to rate. early speed in well bred horses is a good thing in my book........ BTW, how good is johnny velazquez?? he just knocked me out of the pk6. i have him in the 9th though, maybe get 5 out of 6...... 6/1 odds right now, looks like a decent bet to me.

[Michael D.]

even at 3/1, this 9 horse in the 9th looks good to me. i think JR tracks the pletcher horse, and puts him away in the stretch.

[Michael D.]

not even a 5 out of 6.... that 4 horse really exploded. 1:35.2 ??    i hope the card is good on wednesday, nice carryover.

Michael D,

Based on his performances, I see no reason he won\'t learn to relax enough to get 8-9 furlongs. As a general rule though, the classic horses don\'t start their careers wiring 5 1/2 furlong races. They either debut/bloom a little later as distances start stretching out or are closers in these early sprints.

I think he\'ll have to be really special to be as effective at 10F. That kind of range of talent is very rare.

[Michael D.]

look at some of the recent derby winners. smarty exploded his first out, i remember funny cide ran a really fast sprint his first out, war emblem would have run quick early if baffert had him early on, fupeg exploded his first out sprinting......now, are these horses brilliant 10f horses? we have beat that one to death, so let\'s ignore that subject, but i think fast early doesn\'t mean they can\'t go long later on. interesting subject though ClassH. my favorite part of the game is following the young two yr olds through to their three year old seasons. you are absolutely correct though, declan\'s moon hasn\'t proven nothin yet about his ability to go long. we will see more when he goes 8.5f next month at Hol.

I don\'t think it\'s a matter of winning sprinting. I think it\'s a matter of showing extreme brilliance sprinting and then stretching out. Very few horses show 44 - 45 flat type brilliance in early season sprints and then go on to be classic horses. IMO, it\'s a special combination to be able to go that fast and continue running 10F without slowly deteriorating form.  

Smarty was a terrific exception.

Some others have won sprinting because they were so much better than their competition, but they didn\'t really show that kind of excellent sprint fraction brilliance.

There are always exceptions, but if you were going to build a profile of a 10F prospect, I don\'t think Declan\'s races would fit it. He\'s impressive. I just wouldn\'t look to play him in the Derby futures. :-)



Post Edited (11-23-04 10:16)