QUESTIONS & PAT DAY's "CLASSIC" RIDE

[HP]

One thing that Jerry once mentioned here in passing that has stuck with me is that many times jockeys/connections will be cautious in the big races.  You\'ll look at the PP\'s and assume that there are speed horses that will be gunning for the lead and they are....kind of checking it out when the gate opens.  Speed may be even more valuable in these races because a lot of times the jockeys are a little more cautious and lay back and if someone can save ground and make their own trip they are in even better shape than usual.  

War Emblem springs to mind as a prime example of this...and imagine if Lion Heart had been ridden 1w/1w...  

JBelfior may be right, but it didn\'t surprise me that they held back with Azeri.  Looking at the PPs for the Classic I was thinking they would go faster early...

HP

[JJP]

It wasn\'t Day\'s fault.  Azeri was never faster than either GZ or Roses in May.  Lets move on.  Azeri running in the Classic has gotten far more publicity than it deserved.

[jimbo66]

Joe B,

Respectfully disagree.  Put Azeri on the lead through 46.4 and 1:11 and which horse does she beat?

Ghostzapper?  No way.

Roses in May?  No.

Pleasantly Perfect?  No.

Perfect Drift?  No.

Ghostzapper and Roses in May would have stalked and passed her.  The quicker pace would have made Pleasantly Perfect and Perfect Drift\'s \"late runs\" more effective and they would potentially have lost less ground since the field would not have been as \"bunched up\".  

Before the race, most everybody thought she had no chance.  She ran 5th, which I think is very respectable and admirable against that field.  My guess is that two years ago, when she was a bit better and the classic field had a few less \"tigers\", she might have run a little better.

[twoshoes]

Joe B -
In my opinion you are exactly right. Why run her in the race if you\'re not going to put her in it? The pace was not that fast and GZ wasn\'t going to get in a duel that would cook him (per Frankel.) She still would have been beaten by the top two for sure but may have finished better than she did.

Mark

[Tony]

I am suprised there is so many threads on a horse everyone totally dismissed and had no chance of winning?

[jbelfior]

Tony--

OK, I give up. No more posts on AZERI. Nevertheless, there were some interesting and insightful comments/opinions given in this thread.

On a separate, but familiar issue. Steve Haskin was the BLOODHORSE reporter who printed pieces of Frankel\'s \"strategy\" conversation with the owner of RIM.

My buddy e-mailed Haskin on his thoughts and also asked if Haskin believes this can be construed as a form of \"race fixing.\"

Haskin wrote him back saying he was overreacting and that trainers or trainers/owners of other horses discuss racing startegy all the time and there was nothing wrong with them agreeing on the strategy that was most beneficial for each of their horses.

I\'m wondering if Haskin, who sounds brainless to me, was at least smart enough to crush the exacta.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Florida Phil]

Funny Cide\'s October 12 race at Belmont was quite an effort, coming back as he did to win.  My guess was it would result in a bounce in the Classic.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jbelfior wrote:

> BDHsheets--
>
> I don\'t see anything in this thread that alludes to Day\'s ride
> costing AZERI the race.
>
> Without speaking for the others, my feeling is that AZERI had
> no shot to win the race regardless of how she was handled by
> Day.
>
> The point is that if the connections thought she had a shot to
> win, then why not take advantage of the circumstances and send
> her to the lead when the opportunity presented itself.
>
> You put AZERI on the lead in a :46 4/5 and a 1:11, and I\'ll bet
> you dollars to donuts she finishes better than 5th.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

Joe, I\'m not a performance figure purist. Its why I\'m not a regular T-Graph customer. I believe in careful scrutiny of the whole enchilada. In my opinion one factor in performance figures is pace. If horses aren\'t pushed to their limits in the first part of a race its generally foreseeable that the performance figure for the race will not be top or near top. Track bias or glibness is a factor in this of course, as well as other variables. The challenge and beauty of the investigation is the most intriguing part of the endeavor.  That said, I am in accord with your belief that pace modifications can affect the outcome of the race. The tacit agreement between Frankel and Ramsey certainly had an impact. As did Day and Lukas\'s failure to seize the day. I did not think Azeri capable of winning the Classic. But I thought she had one chance, forge to the front, take the game to the others and attempt to ration speed for as long as her stamina and the track would take her. If she had followed that formula, I\'m not so sure she wouldn\'t have won. Running as she did denied her the chance to finish as RIM and GZ did: Out in front on the best part of the track and full of run with plenty in reserve. My horses were RIM and Funny Cide. It wasn\'t Funny\'s day and it wasn\'t gonna work out, but I tend to think Azeri failed to take advantage of a golden opportunity.

CtC



Post Edited (11-04-04 13:49)

[jbelfior]

Ctc-

Well put. A fitting end to a good thread.


Good Luck,
Joe B.