QUESTIONS & PAT DAY's "CLASSIC" RIDE

[jbelfior]

The term \"patient Pat\" was never more appropriate than in Saturday\'s Classic.

How many jocks out there would not have taken advantage of Javier Castellano\'s decision to come off of the rail with GZ after the break leaving a huge hole at the inside?

What chance of winning did Day give AZERI by taking back off of soft fractions, removing any advantage she may have had---her early speed in a relatively paceless race?

Does anyone think Prado, Bailey,or Johnny V would not have sent AZERI to the front under those circumstances?

GZ probably would have still won, but don\'t you think it would have been a bit tougher?


Good Luck,
Joe B.

Could your assumption about the pace be wrong as it pertains to Azeri?

Fractions that are slow for Ghostzapper and RIM at 10 furlongs might not be that slow for an inferior horses like Azeri going 10F.

Day might have had to \"use her\" to get the lead.

[jbelfior]

CH--


I understand your point. Visually, it appeared he had a hammerlock on to keep her from going up after the daylight inside.

Based on the early fractions and how the track was playing, my feeling is that the pace was not that quick where she would have had to been pushed to get the lead.

My feeling is that they had concerns about her getting the distance if she were to run on or just off of a demanding pace, therefore the game plan was to take back from the bell regardless of the situation. Ditto for RIM.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[miff]

AZERI being \"sent\" may have made the race more interesting, but GZ raced giant again and would have most probably still won off.

Joe,

I agree on the early hammerlock on Azeri.

The race development really didn\'t shock me. I had a funny feeling that everyone was going to be gun shy and I didn\'t see any of them as totally unrateable. I was wrong on Funny Cide. I thought he would be closer early.

[jbelfior]

CH--

When you have that many loading, there is a good chance someone is going to go quick early. Not Saturday.

By the way, has anyone had a chance to read the article on the BLOODHORSE website today... \"Classic: Chasing a Ghost.\"

Seems Frankel is plotting strategy for other horses in the race too. Interesting stuff. Any thoughts??



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

Interesting article, JB.

If it really happened as the article laid out, I would be surprised.  It even sounds like a mild form of \"race fixing\".  Not sure how the rules of racing are written, but multiple parties on separate horses/betting interests, colluding on positioning, pace and strategy, sounds shady.

Of course, the article makes it look like Frankel is just too \"brilliant\" and he outsmarted Ramsay.

Be curious what others think, but I don\'t get a good feeling after reading the article.  I would prefer those kinds of discussions not take place.  (and this comes from somebody whose saving grace on Saturday was Ghostzapper\'s win)

[jbelfior]

Jimbo--


My thoughts exactly. Not shocked that BS like this involves Frankel. I am shocked that he would actually tell a reporter this stuff. Is his ego that big???



Good luck,
Joe B.

>When you have that many loading, there is a good chance someone is going to go quick early. Not Saturday.<

Agreed.

But Saturday a lot of the speeds were suspect at the distance, were rateable, and pace issues were discussed publicly.

I\'m big on pace analysis after the fact as a method of interpretng results and measuring performance. I\'m not so big on predicting pace related race developments because I\'m wrong too often and the public usually overdoes it on the baord.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

classhandicapper wrote:

> >When you have that many loading, there is a good chance
> someone is going to go quick early. Not Saturday.<
>
> Agreed.
>
> But Saturday a lot of the speeds were suspect at the distance,
> were rateable, and pace issues were discussed publicly.
>
> I\'m big on pace analysis after the fact as a method of
> interpretng results and measuring performance. I\'m not so big
> on predicting pace related race developments because I\'m wrong
> too often and the public usually overdoes it on the baord.

Pleasantly Perfect came down with a career ending injury sustained in the race. Its possible it impeded his ability to get closer. Its just as possible in the heat of the combat he never felt it.

I said it before and I\'ll reiterate. That track was QUICK and in the Classic they loafed early. Wide was NOT the path. I\'m dying for the opportunity to line up again against the fastest horse to ever look through a bridle.

I almost fell out of the saddle when \"The Blood Horse\" stated: \"but Frankel has never had any doubts about Ghostzapper\'s ability to stretch out to two turns\":

http://bc.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=25182


Azeri broke half a step slow, but I\'m stunned that Day and Lukas didn\'t take the game to them when she had the chance. She had one hope at the distance. She wasn\'t gonna outgame them late. More evidence that Lukas is a well placed amateur.

I\'ll admit to not spending enough time on the race and mis-analyzing the pace scenario. My bad, it won\'t happen with these horses again.

CtC



Post Edited (11-03-04 16:51)

[jimbo66]

Chuckles,

I don\'t \"love\" Lukas either and do enjoy betting against him, especially now.

But \"well placed amateur\" is way out of line.  He has won enough Triple Crown and Breeders Cup races to earn a little respect.  Like him or not.

Azeri beating GZ at ANY distance would be a miracle.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jimbo, I think you\'re losing track of the type of horseflesh Lukas has had at his disposal until very recently. He\'s a numbers cruncher. In the Mid eighties to mid nineties he had managed to convince scores of wealthy unknowledgeable clients he knew what he was doing. You could have shined up ANY trainer, put Lukas\'s sunglasses and personality on him and had as much success. He\'s was a master at his craft but that craft wasn\'t horsemenship. That said, I did have Stellar Jane in the Distaff and Consolidator in the Juvenile in my bets.

The demise of Lukas has been linked to the new drug era. Lukas has always been a speed popper and the new juice is speed pop juice. He hasn\'t figured out what it is or he wont use it.

CtC

[Silver Charm]

Day\'s ride was fine and Waynes training job was even better. She couldn\'t have beaten Ghostzapper under any circumstances and you\'re not giving either one of those two Hall of Famers enough credit to think they didn\'t know that either.

They said before the race she may run again this year. This tipped their hand. A St Liam type duel would have cooked her for good.

Pat Day and D. Wayne Lukas have probably taken more criticism for two people who have won as much as they have. There is something wrong here.

[bdhsheets]

This thread is amazing.

Most were drooling at the prospect of betting against Azeri in the Distaff, per her pattern of running off numbers after minus 1\'s and are now complaining about Day\'s ride where they had no shot.

Amazing, simply amazing.

[jbelfior]

BDHsheets--

I don\'t see anything in this thread that alludes to Day\'s ride costing AZERI the race.

Without speaking for the others, my feeling is that AZERI had no shot to win the race regardless of how she was handled by Day.

The point is that if the connections thought she had a shot to win, then why not take advantage of the circumstances and send her to the lead when the opportunity presented itself.

You put AZERI on the lead in a :46 4/5 and a 1:11, and I\'ll bet you dollars to donuts she finishes better than 5th.


Good Luck,
Joe B.