I Wouldn’t Give Up On Good Cheer

[Silver Charm]

Cox has done a good job with her. She developed early at 2 and continued on and early at 3. That last race was a very solid effort and against a now better filly. The Kentucky Oaks win was no fluke. Ultra consistent and looks like she has already beaten all the others except one. And thats where it gets tricky....

[Fairmount1]

Cox was not firing on all cylinders during this horse\'s last two attempts.  

The week before Labor Day, Cox started firing again, this one ends up at Parx and can\'t be ignored all together.  But I\'m going to look elsewhere for most of my play on this race.

I prefer Clicquot who on debut was even money, set a ridiculous half and quit.  Since then she\'s done nothing wrong.  Her last in July was a win that was expected and not against a great field.  But she was inside of horses for most of the BS handling it well and also in the T; tipped out and ran on very well to win.  A Walden horse came back to win at Ellis although it wasn\'t a flashy number.  

In the meantime, she has works available for review for yourselves with Gosger in August and trained eyes better than me can judge how to rate that work.  It is very encouraging to my eye based on Gosger\'s talent level although hard to say how much he was asked.  Definitely worth the watch for yourself before you decide to wager. Then, she also has one video of work showing where she worked with a 65 Beyer filly who she destroyed before one heck of a gallop out to the BS to be ready for the distance/layoff.  Irad\'s 2 for 2 with her and leaves Saffie\'s Indy Bay for this mount.  I think there is more in the tank than the PP\'s show based on IndOaks and works, I get a very large field by today\'s standards and some very big names to ensure a solid price.  I\'m a touch nervous she gets lower than 6-1 b/c of Irad but I don\'t think so with Good Cheer, La Cara, and Scottish Lassie.  

I\'ll take her in the win pool.  I\'m against Scottish Lassie altogether if the field stays together.  I\'m interested in using Good Cheer with Cox, Dry Powder, and La Cara in the tri along with Clicquot.  But over half my wager will be on Clicquot to win.  

Good Luck and if it is a Good Cheer and Clicquot exacta in either order, I promise I\'ll also be wishing you all a Shout of Joy and Champagne Cheers Toast to those so inclined (not I at this time)!

The takeout at Parx is hard to stomach but with the large field, this will be my one Parx wager for the year.

[jbelfior]

Tough post at Parx going 1 1/16 for Good Cheer. I\'ll try Indy Bay to approach her number at OP back in April for Saffie.

As for PA Derby. Watched Connect from post 4 beat Gun Runner from post 7 years back. It\'s a tough trip outside of post 5 going 2 turns at that track. No easy task today for Baeza and Gosger.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Tavasco]

My view and opinion is that the race plays to Good Cheer\'s pressing style. My concern is that she doesn\'t regress after her last effort. The abundance of front runners could just leave a pocket for Good Cheer to drop into. It\'s always possible Indy Bay could love the stretch out and be uncatchable.

I\'ll play those two ebx fwiw.

[Silver Charm]

Nice Pick. Maybe it was time to give up on Good Cheer. Ugh. Now lets go Canes. Hard Rock bound

[Michael D.]

Nice analysis, Richie. $12.60 was a pretty good price on that filly.

[Roman]

I like Magnitude ans So Sandy in the derby. If So Sandy improves a couple lengths , or gets a great rail trip from post 1, and Magnitude runs back to his top, worth a win bet and boxing those 2 in an exacta.

[jbelfior]

Nice job with Clicquot. She ran a terrific race.

......and Baeza finally grew up mentally.  


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Silver Charm]

Yes it was and good call by you on Good Cheer and that post at PARX. I had her mixed up with everything and when she bombed so did I. I\'m not sure why she was close up and 3 wide but she stopped badly on the turn and that is not 2 X\'s in the last 3 races. Mostly older from here on she looks like one who needs a break till 4.

Scottish Lassie had to be played to bounce. And she did. But she will be a nice Filly later.