The Two Week Comeback

[jbelfior]

Had some thoughts about the Derby winner and his prep schedule. Perhaps he followed a path that would allow him the 5 weeks between the Florida and Kentucky Derby. Not unlike Mystik Dan last year. Reluctantly ran him in the Preakness and we all know how that and the following races have turned out.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Roman]

If he is doing well, they should go. He is a much better horse than Mystic Dan, and the Triple is supposed to be tough. I think the Sheik is a sporting type of fella. What\'s better than a KY Derby winner? A Triple Crown winner.

[Roman]

No Triple Crown attempt this year. Skipping the Preakness.

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/sovereignty-to-skip-preakness/

[toppled]

I\'m glad he\'s not coming back in 2 weeks-much better for the horse. Personally, I don\'t believe that a 1 1/4 Belmont at Saratoga is \"The test of the champion\" and winning the Triple Crown is pretty meaningless until the Belmont is 1 1/2 again.

[Roman]

The horse has to always come first. But what if the horse is doing great?
Disappointed as a fan, and respect the decision.

The Preakness is better with the derby winner in it.
The Belmont is better with a Triple on the line.
And racing could of used a shot in the arm of a Triple Crown attempt

Preakness should be a good race regardless. Field of ten I heard.

Have a renewed respect for horses that ran in all 3 races and won 2.

[Molesap]

I get it that the trainer should know best, but just to offer a little fact - 12 of the last 25 horses that attempted the Derby-Preakness double won the Preakness and many that did not win finished in the money. Did it help Rich Strike skipped the Preakness? OK, it does not seem much would have helped that horse, but they missed an opportunity to run an apparently sharp horse in G1 race. Part of the reason for the two prep season is to keep the horse fresh for the Derby for peak performance and in return, that theoretically makes that two week turnaround possible. While I agree the Saratoga Belmont would put an asterisk on the Triple Crown, in my mind, they are statistically skipping about a 50/50 shot at being one race from horse racing immortality.

[TGJB]

The issue isn’t what happens in that race on two weeks rest.

[glass_oni0n]

I\'ve been banging this drum all week, and it\'s mostly because of your seminar last year and what I learned prior to last year\'s Preakness (and from the results of the race).

Horses coming out of the Derby or Derby weekend tend to do well in the Preakness.  There\'s something to be said for running back a fit, in-form horse when they\'re fit and in-form.  The trifecta of last year\'s Preakness was swept by horses who ran on Derby day.

It is not about two races in two weeks.  It\'s about three races in five, or possibly just the turnaround from the Preakness to the Belmont.  73.7% run an off or an X (I went back and checked the Youtube archive yesterday), and horses running in the Belmont having made their last start in the Derby do well.  To anyone questioning this decision, I\'d ask how did Dornoch and Sierra Leone run last year vs. Mystik Dan and Seize the Grey?

Mott either knows this directly or has a sense of this as a brilliant horseman.  He also probably knows that it\'s very unlikely a closer, even a really tight-patterned, in-form closer, will win the Triple Crown.  What he does know is, if he sends his fit, in-form colt to Pimlico and Sovereingty runs like it, he may be backed into a corner he doesn\'t want to be in.  

Something that could just be anecdotal but also rings in my brain is Mott\'s experience last year with the fastest horse in his barn, Arthur\'s Ride.  The horse picked up a win in the Whitney with their eyes really on the Gold Cup.  Mott decided to run him back in a month off a negative race (and an off) and the horse was gassed.  He was quoted as saying he \"hated to see it.\"  He then gave Arthur\'s Ride time into the Breeders\' Cup and he still bounced.

[Fairmount1]

Maybe a one prep schedule for the Derby is the right answer for a Triple Crown run??  

This has become almost absurd in some ways.

Is it possible that Godolphin has a \"program\" that doesn\'t work best on 2 weeks rest for a myriad of possible reasons?  Do withdrawal times matter?  I have no idea but it is their horse and they can do as they please.  My belief is Godolphin made this decision and that this wasn\'t Mott.  I\'ve seen the Mott is \"3 for 58 on 2 weeks or less stat\" but my guess is that Godolphin is calling the shots on not running in the Preakness.  Could very well be wrong but Mott gets his first real Derby win and doesn\'t want to try Baltimore?  Hmmm. . .  

Would be interesting to see how fast Appleby ever returned one off of a big effort.  

Unrelated, I started reading Death of a Racehorse last evening.  Should be an interesting read in today\'s hay and oats world of horse racing.

[johnnym]

No one said the triple crown was supposed to be easy

In today’s world greatness is yesterdays good and that’s all across the sporting world.

[ajkreider]

Yet, in today\'s world, if you retire undefeated, it\'s a supposed sign of greatness, even if never raced in open company (Justify). Secretariat lost to some mids. So did Seattle Slew.

American Pharoah was a great horse, but I\'ll take Cigar all day.

[statuette]

The bigger problem is people(in sports etc)trying to live in “yesterday”

[Roman]

Was talking to a co-worker who was asking about the Sheikh. We were talking about camel racing, and how they use a mechanical remote controlled robot jockeys, and why they use them instead of human jockeys.

The conversation then turned to the reports of human trafficking and child labor, and the sh!t storm that scandal created when they were using 8 year old children to ride.

Then he asked me if he cheats in horse racing. I replied that it is complicated. He has had trainers who were caught doping, when Appleby was an assistant to that trainer, that his endurance horses have tested positive for banned substances, that there is a vet caught on FBI wiretaps talking about Dubai and a doping program.

Also that he owns a racetrack in Dubai, races on every continent, has farms & breeding operations in multiple continents, owns an auction house, and some of the best bloodstock in the world, and most of the finest farms in the world.

The problem I run into is say that he is doping, he uses multiple trainers, some who seem really reputable. And his horses seem to run for all of them.

In theory , if they do have some type of program, I suspect it to be some type of long term steroid being given at the farm.
This is just all speculation on my part, but if you own the best of everything any one man can desire, would you not also have a chemist?
Makes you wonder.

[t_fin]

Clearly, some trainers pay lip service to \"what\'s best for the horse.\" But I believe a few commit to it. From a distance, it\'s not always easy to distinguish between them, especially for a layman (e.g., moi). I\'m inclined to believe Bill Mott is in the former camp.

[Molesap]

Per DRF... \"Journalism is alive and well and going to the Preakness.\"