Distaff

[bdhsheets]

This is not a stellar field [no pun intended] tri wheel plays such as a/bcd/all are in order, as everyone is capable of running a deuce. IRS signer potential, LMAO.

Ashado: 2-1 likely fav. Huge 3.5 top into a big neg number. Regardless of what HP thinks, Pletcher hosses do bounce, especially when entering minus territory with big moves. Purge, Value Plus, Speightstown, Balto Star immediately come to mind. This is a 3yo filly and big numbers usually hurt. Repeat of # wins easy, but inclined to use only in bottom of tri\'s & supers. Didn\'t beat much in Cotillion [wide, wide trip] Stellar Jayne, Society Selection have beaten her.

Bare Necessities: 40-1 Not the same horse since leaving W. Dollase [imagine that!?!] but a return to a 2 [not out of the question with the layoff which seems to help] gives her a shot at the bottom of tri/super.

Elloluv: 60-1 Far too many \'bi\' notations on the chart; figure in Ladys Secret wouldn\'t threaten a good 40k field of claimers, but previous \'could contend\' for a share.

Hollywood Story: 30-1 hit her 2yo top in Holly BC Oaks and ran fair in the following turf race. Again, a return to the 2.5 can grab a share. Shireffs 54% top/pair 90+ day layoff.

Indy Groove: 40-1 Only hoss in field besides Ashado with improving #\'s. Million dollar daughter of AP Indy is getting good at the right time. Del Mar effort a toss. Many eastern horses are bothered by silent ground tremors. Trainer Proctor pulled a Distaff shocker 10yrs ago with One Dreamer. Looks tons better on the sheets than Beyer. Inside PP draw would help tremendously, has enuff speed to keep others outside. Love this horse at a huge price.

Island Fashion: 5-1 not a very fast # in Ladys Secret. If she returns to her earlier season form, solid contender. T-stat has Polanco 55% t/p 2nd off lay [why can\'t I believe this is only 10th time he has had a horse 2nd off the lay....] 46% t/p 11-29 day category.

Nebraska Tornado: 12-1 ND on top, RAN on bottom of pedigree says she\'ll take to the dirt. This isn\'t a tuff field by any stretch, a win wouldn\'t surprise me at all. Granted she\'s not the same hoss as last year, but dirt wake up? Impossible to ignore. Hit her top in last....

Society Selection: 7/2 chased Sightseek to no avail in last after pairing small neg #\'s. Perhaps she needed the race after a brief layoff? Perhaps in same boat as I.F.

Stellar Jayne: 9/2 Needs a vacation, lol. returned to top in last, a pt slower than Indy ;-) will take money and solid shot at exotics.

Storm Flag Flying: 5-1 victim of too fast, too early, took 20 months to break thru 2yo top and has settled in 2 range since, don\'t see her winning, but like others, has a shot at a slice.

Tamweel: 8-1, has averaged an 0.75 over last three, better than most of them in here. Amazing what a change to certain trainers can do, lol. Battled Azeri to no avail in last. Inside post would help chances, could make every pole a winner.


See shanahan, its not just Ash, SFF & SJ.

I\'ll wheel Indy in all 3 slots. When the post positions come in, I\'ll have a better idea for the \"bcd\" in the tri; likely Nebraska, Tamweel and Island.

Later,



Post Edited (10-27-04 01:52)

[shanahan]

makes good sense, and I get where you are coming from (and I\'ll prepare my crow without lighting the oven just yet), but I am going with proven ones this year with these fillies...BTW - what is your take on ouji board in the later race?

[Silver Charm]

Nice Post Sheets. Seriously, all the bells and whistles made it look even better. For those who do not know Bdsheets picked Volponi on this Board a few years back.

Even with Azeri this race seemed a little boring now its an absolute snooooozzzzer. But its only the Opener so lets save the best for last.

In years past a longshot speed horse has capitalized because the others were to worn out from a long campaign. This could be another one of those years. Don\'t be taking the rubberband off here.

[HP]

I can clarify what I said by pointing to Ashado as a prime example.  MOST other horses running these kinds of numbers would\'ve bounced around more (especially fillies).  I think the best Pletcher horses are pretty consistent in terms of running their numbers.  Purge is another example of a horse who, if I recall (I don\'t have the sheets yet), ran quite a few good ones in row, as did Speightstown, before they finally backed up.  Value Plus if I recall has never produced a string of good numbers in a row.

I shouldn\'t have said his horses don\'t bounce, but I would say that Pletcher\'s horses bounce less than average, and they seem to get the extra good race in when it looks like they SHOULD bounce.  

Also, the main point is that you could be right, and Ashado could bounce, and given a good post and her running style she could still win easy.  HP

[jbelfior]

Guys:

This is now a bad betting race. Unless someone out there is sure NEBRASKA TORNADO will take her class with her on dirt, where is the value. INDY GROOVE is taking a huge leap in class, but you are right...she\'s coming in as good as ever. Still too iffy this early in the day.

Even a slight regression by ASHADO puts her right there. SOCIETY SELECTION may have just liked Saratoga and it\'s mud...jury is still out on how she will do around 2 turns at a different and dry track.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

BD--high level analysis, whether I agree with you in the specifics or not. It\'s nice to know someone is paying attention to all the stuff we\'ve added, and has taken the time to learn how to use it. The second off a layoff stats are very specific in their parameters, which makes the sample small-- has to come back again within a certain number of days, etc.

We are considering a notation for silent ground tremors. Would very much like to know how you know that\'s why they don\'t run off the ship to California-- I\'m more inclined to think it\'s an acclimation question, considering how eastern horses have done shipping into Florida, New Orleans, and yes, Texas. More on this in the seminar.

[jimbo66]

JB,

When do you expect the seminar to  be available?

[TGJB]

Finishing writing it now and will finish recording it over the next couple of hours. We need to proof it (found a couple of problems with the slides already), figure 8:00 pm eastern.