Gulfstream in Jeopardy

[johnnym]

https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2025-02-02/santa-anita-horse-racing-survival?s=09

[TGJB]

That about covers it.

Cognitive dissonanceâ€" I read that article with TVG on in the background, where they mentioned that Into Mischief’s stud fee is now 250k. You would think that those making a living in commercial breeding would realize that if tracks keep shutting down, so will demand for their product, and get in the game.

[Socalman3]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That about covers it.
>
> Cognitive dissonanceâ€" I read that article with
> TVG on in the background, where they mentioned
> that Into Mischief’s stud fee is now 250k. You
> would think that those making a living in
> commercial breeding would realize that if tracks
> keep shutting down, so will demand for their
> product, and get in the game.

Cognitive dissonance?  Do you mean like contending that horseracing doesn\'t belong in urban settings while the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont and at least half of the Breeders Cups are all conducted in -- an urban setting.

I don\'t recall the urban settings scaring away Euros or Japanese -- although maybe Tyler Gafflione felt emboldened to mug the Japanese horse in last year\'s derby due to the -- urban setting?  I wonder what the Hong Kong Jockey Club thinks about this?  

Would be nice if we didn\'t also have to contend with \"friendly\" fire like this on top of all the other issues.

[Roman]

It is an industry as a whole issue, from the breeders, to the tracks, trainers, the Jockey Club, the players,fans and gamblers, the data industry, the owners, grooms, feed companies, farriers, farmers and agriculture, and even John Deere. Talk about a trickle down industry,  horse racing and breeding and the gaming affect so much and so many that it is hard to fathom why so many in the industry are not running around with their hair on fire and shouting that the sky is falling, because it is.

As for the breeders, Golden Pal almost covered 300 mares his first season.
If he covers close to another 300 mares in his second year, he will have covered almost as many mares Northern Dancer covered in his whole career.
See the problem.

Foal crop down, entire states losing horse racing, can\'t buy a racing form at Churchill properties, the takeout rate is too dam high, can\'t watch Churchill affiliated track race replays on DRF, Equibase data costs are ridiculous,  tracks owning CAW\'s and giving themselves a takeout reduction to themselves, the abuse of PED\'s, the lack of transparency in sales and information provided to the player, why would any one in their right mind get involved in this sport.

You have to truly love the game to be playing right now, and be willing to literally donate your money via wagering to try and keep it going. Who does that?

No one has a loud voice in this fractured sport, and if they did,  no one would listen.  
And the it\'s an old man\'s sport, or the fan base is dying off, or it\'s a niche sport are all straw man arguments. The sport does well in other parts of the world.
They all had the same problems the industry has here , the only difference is they addressed them while we bury our heads in the sand , and the industry will be eaten like a carcass by vultures until nothing is left.

[TGJB]

The tracks that are “doing well” are the ones that are being subsidized, one way or another. Gulfstream and Santa Anita are not, to this point. What she said was ridiculousâ€" but it’s true they’re losing money. The commercial breeders are making a fortune, especially the stud farms. Something has to change.

[Roman]

In Kentucky they write races for horses that RNA\'d or sold for less than 50k.
When they should be writing races for horses that are home bred and the sire stands for 5k.
They are literally pricing the small breeder/owner out of the game like they are doing to the player.

I have a really good friend that has 2 broodmares, three racing, and a baby on the farm. He is retired and on a pension and social security. Every penny he makes from purses returns to the industry plus I would think another 40-50k a year of his own money. He has been an owner for 40 years. He loses his money willingly because of his love for the sport. And there are many like him who don\'t mind losing that type of money, 50 percent or more of their income to participate. You need the small fish as much as you need the big fish. The small fish have to thrive in any eco system.  Without plankton,  there are no whales.
Handle is what needs to improve. They need to create more churn. Reduce the wagering options maybe. Do you need a double, pick 3/4/5/6 all a wagering option in the same race.
Santa Anita went to a 3 dollar pick 3. Why?  Make it a dollar minimum.
Get rid of the .10 cent plays where you can play every combination and win by attrition.

Data should be free. Why don\'t more people follow your lead and give the data away  to anyone like you do? You can redboard any race you want here, can\'t do that anywhere else.
Think about if you are someone like me , who likes to use Drf,Brisnet and TG figures to handicap, and an Equineline or Bris produce record for pedigree research, pay for workout videos, or workout reports , just to be able to wager with an edge, especially when the remaining pool of players are just as sharp or way sharper , to be able to compete pari-mutuely.  Sometimes during the triple crown, my data expenses are as much or more than I wager for the three events. That\'s monies that would be wagered, and churned.
Not saying that figure makers and providers should be doing it for free.
The tracks should be supplying the data to the player.
All the major auction houses supply past performance from every figure maker from TG, Thoromanager, Equibase, Drf,Rags, pedigree and analysis all for free for the buyers at those sales, but the player, which without there would be no racing , have to bear the brunt of the price of data.

Every other sport supplies copious amounts of data to it\'s  fans and for free.

Just for an example, my handle, would double right now if all that data was free, and being a weekend warrior mostly would put my handle into 6 figures.

Imagine if handle would double. Do you still need slot subsidies?  You attract more flies with honey than vinegar, and most of everything in the industry is tainted with vinegar.
Which is really sad. While HISA may be costly, something needed to be done, and when you refuse to do something about problems, someone will fill that void and do something about those problems, and it\'s usually a government agency.

And the urban bull$h!t Bellinda was spewing was unfreakin believable.  Any ever see a birds eye view of Happy Valley? Having stadiums and racetracks near or in urban areas is exactly where they need to be, that\'s where the people are.

She thinks we are stupid. Why would she say something like that otherwise?

[jma11473]

Roman Wrote:
->
> No one has a loud voice in this fractured sport,
> and if they did,  no one would listen.  
> And the it\'s an old man\'s sport, or the fan base
> is dying off, or it\'s a niche sport are all straw
> man arguments. The sport does well in other parts
> of the world.
> They all had the same problems the industry has
> here , the only difference is they addressed them
> while we bury our heads in the sand , and the
> industry will be eaten like a carcass by vultures
> until nothing is left.

The one place horse racing is doing well is Hong Kong, or so I always hear. And the only tiny differences between racing there and here is that there the government controls all the racetracks and the breeding of horses. So nearly the same. Oh, and there are no competing forms of gambling like sports betting or casinos. So gee, it\'s almost identical to the situation here.

Racing IS a niche\' sport and it IS being swallowed up by much more appealing forms of gambling. The solution is to make wagering more appealing, but when racetracks can\'t survive on the current takeout, hard to see big takeout cuts coming. There was a time to change the landscape of the industry but it was 30 years ago when simulcasting became widespread and racing missed that shot. Instead they took a tiny percentage of their own simulcast revenue and eventually strangled their own business.

[Roman]

France, UK, Ireland, Dubai, Australia, Japan all have a great product and are not subsidized by other forms of gaming. The Hong Kong model is an outlier, although their model is efficient.

And is Hong Kong run by the government or by a racing club/ non profit ?
Though they mostly run geldings, that are owned by club members, their model works. And there is some things that they do extremely well in Hong Kong that can be implemented here.

For example, they do not run claiming races. They have races for all the lower level horses and are very competitive races , and they still use weight to make it an even playing field for the players & owners.

Baseball could be considered a niche sport.

Respectfully disagree, and maybe the bias I have towards horse racing, wanting it to thrive and survive for my own selfish reasons, like thinking it is not only the best sport but also the best form of gaming, is clouding my judgement.

Racing to me is only second to my family\'s health and welfare. It is by far the only thing that I can do , playing the races or going to the track, where all my problems in life are put on hold, and able to decompress and enjoy the sport.
Their would be a void in my  life if racing were to cease, and I am only a fan and gambler. I have a day time job. I feel bad for those that live off the industry, as they will have to find another career, that their lively hood is at stake.

Talk about an \"all hands on deck moment\".  It is going to take everyone to right this ship and time is running out.

[Socalman3]

So, it has just come out that she is marketing her horseracing businesses.  I would call that very strange behavior -- announcing that her business is bad for horses\' health and then announcing that her toxic sludge is for sale.  I guess she doesn\'t have to worry about being sued for failing to disclose risks, but this would seem to fly in the face of salesmanship 101.  BTW, not only did she talk down her book, she also talked down everybody else\'s book.  I wonder if there is a legal case that she slandered churchill downs and Belmont.  That Hallandale real estate is such a deep pocket, maybe some money can be made getting her to compensate urban racetracks for all the damage she has done to them.  Would be funny/poetic/karma to see some of that Hallandale real estate bonanza end up going to Belmont and Churchill in a nice fat legal settlement.

[Fairmount1]

Per Ron Flatter of Horse Racing Nation, \"The Florida House subcommittee has begun its hearing on the bill that if passed, would decouple Gulfstream Park racing and slots.\"  This was approx. 3 hours ago.

Then he states \"An amendment has been added to HB 105 that decouples racing from card rooms.  Thus, Tampa Bay Downs would be affected, too.\"

It would be interesting to know exactly who requested this amendment to the legislative folks.  Handicap your own guesses and reasons for now I guess until more info comes out.  

In other news, Mike Willman, a former Santa Anita Park Executive has sued the Stronach Group folks for Retaliation, Wrongful Termination, Etc.  Paulick Report has an article up about 2 hours ago if interested in more details.  

Wild Times for Gulfstream and Santa Anita.  But good news, Maryland racing has been SAVED!

[Socalman3]

> It would be interesting to know exactly who
> requested this amendment to the legislative folks.
>  Handicap your own guesses and reasons for now I
> guess until more info comes out.  

Cui Bono is usually the answer here.  I am guessing her initials are BS (how appropriate), but somebody closer to the situation wouuld know better cui bono,

[Fairmount1]

The HB 105 sponsor is Adam Anderson of the Florida House of Representatives 57th District.  Interestingly, this includes Oldsmar.  The amendment was provided by Brad Yaeger whose 56th District is immediately north of the 57th District.  

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/282550/florida-house-subcommittee-advances-decoupling-bill

[trackjohn]

Interesting Richie..after living down here for the past 3 years this doesn\'t surprise me .. clearly a move to appease the builders around Oldsmar... Is one of the few locations where there is a decent amount of under developed...

John

[Silver Charm]

I read that story and I\'m impressed they squeezed $32M in Tax Incentives out of the State. But first let me say I chatted up with Johnny M last Saturday at GP and what good dude and smart handicapper.  Ther weather was perfect. I didn\'t win. No one cares there right....

I hope there is a continued collective industry voice. And yes TGJB is correct it would help if the Breeders kicked in with the Lobby. Called in a few Policital Markers. These ideas that Mike Repole is goingg to step in a save the day is crazy. He is a good and passionate guy but Billion Dollar Real Estate deals need $50B-$100B type investors. It\'s a 10 year play and your Capital is locked up. I mean he could be in for a small piece and be an Advosor since he knows the Sport

There so many good and nice people around racing I would sure hate ti lose that locally and it all become a made for TV experience. But this is about Dollars and Cents. And until you or Firm have Personally Guaranteed a $100,000,000 - $200,000,000 Construction Loan then you will understand. Stronach may have been a jerk or Pr##k but he put up his money and everyone fought him. The Dogs, Harness, Jai Lai. Cruise Ships. YAH Cruise Ships. They didn\'t want Casinos elsewhere. Churchill Threw a fit when Full Card Simulcasting came in down here. So now they are left with a Billion Dollar Asset or two. They gave the Sport a 3 year Window to figure out a Plan. Get to work if you want to save it.....

[Fairmount1]

Worth Noting From the Article Below.

HB 105 was amended to let Tampa Bay Downs maintain its card club without live racing, although Tampa Bay issued a statement stressing its commitment to horse racing and saying it did not initiate the bill amendment.

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/thoroughbred-racing-initiative-launched-to-fight-decoupling/