Gulfstream in Jeopardy

[johnnym]

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/solving-the-south-florida-racing-crisis-is-palm-meadows-the-answer/


I understand why people grow old and grumpy!

[Socalman3]

really sad stuff. I was hoping horseracing would outlive me, not the other way around.  Decoupling cannot be anything but a disaster for the future of horseracing.  Hope somebody proves me wrong.

[ajkreider]

This will hit me hard. People talking about PB Downs as an alternative seems bonkers. Hialeah, maybe.

1) Get it declared a historical site.
2) Get friendlies at the state/local level to support it like a stadium (Marlins ParK!)
3) Get a rich lover of racing (Repole?) to run it as a not-for-profit
4) Run the casino year-round, but the racing as a boutique winter meet

Has to be someone with a real passion for the sport, including the fans. Put all profits back into purses. CAWs only get rebates if the bets clear 2 minutes before post. Let fans buy engraved walking ring tiles for $1k - all monies going to aftercare. Etc.

Make it a destination for racing fans, and something different to do for tourists after getting bored of a week at the beach.

[Roman]

With all due respect, that sounds to rationale. You have to stick your head up your a$$ and think like a Stronach executive, and get a Tik-Tok \"influencer\" to make a video about losing money at the races.

Remember the racing dates fights Gulfstream had with Hialea and Calder, only to want to close up shop 20 years later after running those two out of the racing business.

Without a boycott , or a buyer, the writing is on the wall and it makes me sick.

[Silver Charm]

I am in Real Estate down here. The value of that land is massive. Developers have been pouring significant amounts of capital in down here since the post George Floyd riots and crime waves broke out in many many major cities. And when a lot of those same state Governors put the State in Lock Down during the pandemic. A good friend of mine sold a 286 unit rental near Stuart that he paid $43M for $73M 3.5 years later. He had a 6 month waiting list for renters. We sold .8 of an acre of land in Downtown Fort Lauderdale for the highest in the history of the County. And flipped another on Federal and Broward we paid $7.75M for $21M in less than a year. Stronach is sitting on a Gold Mine. Just not as Race Track.

Now years ago Hallandale told him the property would never be zoned for anything other than a race track. So he was stuck. But these Commissioners turn over and new people see permit fees, more property taxes and well more of everything $$$. So there may be people ready to play ball.

One final caveat is the Rooney Family controls the Gaming Licenses in Palm Beach County where Palm Meadows is. They own the Dog Track and bought the Jai Lai and closed it. Everything there goes through them. If the name Rooney sounds familiar its the same Family that owns the Steelers. Legend has it the Old Man did Book on the Clubhouse turn at Old Hialeah Park and made enough to start a Football Team. The American Dream indeed....

Hialeah Park? Get real. The area is a complete dump and whatever still exists is a bigger dump. It would take a massive amount of capital to upgrade what is there. No investor would go for this.  

Sorry if the news is gloom but working something out at Palm Meadows is the best solution. Stronach can cash out and leave a Casino Restaurant behind. Move operations up north. But he needs the License. And once again Politics takes over. Like the Old Man did at Hialeah maybe he lets them in for Cut!!

[Silver Charm]

Without giving away any names he was/is a Lobbyist for the Family. Stronach originally paid $100,000,000 for the land. He has torn the Clubhouse down, rebuilt and I dont have any idea what kind of Land Carry he still might have 25 years later (he bought in 1999). Even at fractional profitability he could have paid some of this down in 25 years.

He could sell 5-7 acres of that land for $100,000,000. And he owns 90 acres. So you do the math and ask yourself what you would do if you were them.

The property is worth $1.5B.

Work with them and Racing can find a new home and they have the money to do it. They or I\'m sure the Buyer/Buyers needs that Zoning (he wouldn\'t develop it). They need that Pari Mutual or Gaming License. That\'s your leverage....

[Roman]

Is Hialeah a national landmark , or some other national designation , and if so , do they need to keep the property at a certain condition? Always wondered about that.

Seems a lot of people are feeling nostalgic when it comes to Hialeah, I know i do when I think about all the Chicago tracks that have been tore down or closed.

Speaking of buyers, why someone does not petition the Dubai ruler to buy it, he has to much money and buying that land is like a rounding error for him.

[Silver Charm]

The area there is the Hood. Sorry and I know some really wonderful and beautiful people who live there. The Parking Lot would be an armed robbery waiting to happen after a good day.

The place is a Flamingo or Bird Sanctuary. The plant was falling apart as it was nearing its closing days. With the miniscule margins there are in Racing nobody is going to throw $80M-$100M of capital into a nice facility in the Ghetto. Not even Elvis. The Economics and ROI doesn\'t work out. Now going out to West Delray where Palm Meadows sits and the area is largely undeveloped and the area could be nice and shiny kinda like Arlington Park area was. Now you\'re talking....

Mike Repole, Seth Klarmin know enough of the Hedge Fund, Real Estate Private Equity types who have loads of Capital to deploy in the right places. But you need a bigger Plan than just a Race Track. And Stronach could be levered into leaving behind a Casino Sports Book with some Restaurants in Hallandale and kicking in Capital perhaps in the new Development with zero Control.

You don\'t need a Sheik. You just need the Zoning, Permits, Gaming License and a Palm Meadows and then some more Land. And now its Gulfstream Park all over again for another 40 years....

[Roman]

In Chicago you also need a bag filled with cash for the alderman & the governor to get something like that done.

From your explanation, I just realized that Hawthorne Race Course is going to close for the same reasons you stated about Hialeah.
Sad that this is happening. Ocala is supposed to be horse country with some nice farms. Tampa Bays owners are getting old. This will kill horse racing, except for Kentucky, Oaklawn & NYRA.

This uncertainty about racings future is the worst thing that can happen. Who would breed a Florida bred today, or an Illinois bred, or California.
This will further reduce the foal crop to just a few thousand, and Repole/Maktoum/Klaraman will be racing for bragging rights.
Sport of Billionaires anyone?

[Fairmount1]

A few notes on this thread.

The Hawthorne is filing for bankruptcy or will be bought out is a Strong Rumor among some horsemen at Fairmount Park.  Not too many think Hawthorne continues much longer in these parts which would probably be worse for Fairmount than if it sticks around.  Supposedly the OTB\'s are being pursued as I type???

Stronach has 245 acres from the articles I\'ve read.  So, if this is worth $1.5 Billion dollars give or take . . . who is chucking up that kind of money?  The Dolphins with ideas on Casino, Hotel, Stadium??  1ST/Stronach floated comments that investors aren\'t interested in being partners with the horsemen and splitting the revenue.  Those comments make me wonder if they have a potential long term buyer but the Dolphins the only ones in my mind even close to being able to get involved but that\'s beyond conjecture.  Otherwise, it has to be subdivided with the valuable land still being where the casino license stays and others buying smaller parcels?  All I can say is that Golden Gate closing, Laurel/Pimlico situation, and now this \"news\" confirms SHE (not he) has no interest in continuing in the racing business.

One comment on X stated this would be like removing one of the MLB or NFL franchises from their respective league.  Unfortunately, I think those leagues would survive losing a team; this is a major domino going down as pointed out above that likely leads to a gambling game with the same following as Badminton outside the state lines of Kentucky, New York, and Arkansas.  

No one will come save the day for horse racing at Gulfstream Park.  See Bay Meadows, Hollywood, Arlington, and Golden Gate as your evidence of that likely fact.  It is hard to fathom or believe Gulfstream gone.  But TGAB told me one Travers Day afternoon this result was coming, and I didn\'t believe him then, but I do now.  

Dreams of Hialeah or moving to a place up north seem beyond unlikely to me although many X dreamers have their Million Dollar Ideas with Nickels in their Pocketbooks.  

Dale Romans was on HRRN on Saturday morning.  I hate to mis-quote but in essence he said Frank S. had told him once that he wanted the Magna tracks to be put into a Not For Profit and that the tracks continuing on would be his legacy.  \"Like Father, Like Daughter\" not true in this instance.

Last, I wonder if the information that Stronach has on handle as it relates to CRW, Retail customers and retail dollars and the dwindling Sucker Handle as Paulick wrote recently is contributing to their Bail Soon Approach to Racing.  All that remains is to see how she escapes Santa Anita Park with the Historical Zoning supposedly in place there.  
____________

Nice info Silver.  Fountain of Youth not too far off and hope to see you this year to discuss Pope\'s Pupils at UK?  Southwest this weekend and maybe I\'ll see shanahan for a few minutes at OP?  Two great cards with Pegasus and Southwest although Gulfstream must have fired the morning line maker as neither Fri or Sat have a m/l yet while OP had theirs up early on yesterday.

[Silver Charm]

The 245 acres would include Palm Meadows acreage. Gulfstream sits on 90 acres.

There isn\'t one single Developer who would come in and take the whole 90 acres for $1.5B. The Construction Loans would be at least $3.0B. Probably far more!! No Lender would take on that Risk. Now if it was sold off 4 ot 5 acres at a time. Totally different. As long you can get the Building Permits they would be flocking to that location.

The State would need to step in. Not with money, because they never will, but arm twisting or even legislation for the Gambling Licenses and the other Permits. To help support a very large Breeding and Horse industry that is important to the State. The Hard Rock in Hollywood Fla was acquired by Seminole Indian for $1.1B from MGM in 2007....and since then they have pumped another $1.5B into it in expansion and Capital Improvements. Whats the Draw? Gambling and Entertainment. Stronach had the right idea...he just didn\'t have the Capital and he was 20 years early. Just like Edison so JP Morgan took him out.  

A standalone development for horse racing in Delray will not cut it. A complete complex like Billionaire Joe Lewis did in Lake Nona near Orlando can happen. Anybody talking about ramping up Hialeah again has NO FRICKING CLUE and land plays or real estate. The 3 year decoupling was you got 3 years to figure it out. And that\'s about how long it take

I will be there this Saturday and Holy Bull Day. And FOY Day. Hit me up

[ajkreider]

It\'s kinda of hoodie, sure, but not hoodie enough to keep people from going to the functioning casino.

It wouldn\'t be a profit center for racing, so the model would have to be different.

[Silver Charm]

Appreciate the feedback. And the conversation. Bear with me or my perceived tone....its all good.

I drove by Calder Casino after a recent Dolphins game and was surprised to see that it was a Casino. That it still existed. There might have been 40 or 50 cars in the lot. Some one told me Brunetti (the Son) had sold some of the Hialeah Property for commercial development. So the physical plant isn\'t the same size it once was. And whatever is there could be infested with God knows what. I don\'t mean the Parking Lot Casino building.

No Lender or PE Group is going to invest a $100,000,000 to upgrade a plant (construction costs are thru the roof down here now) in a business that is experiencing declining revenues, has 3%-5% profit margins and the land play is slum land. People on those Slots might be pumping $5K a day in quarters per machine. You may as well go build a Beach Resort Hotel in Haiti and see how that works out.

As far as Stronachs property here is how it works. You buy a 5-6 acre block for $75M-$80M. You get permits to build TWO 30-32 story Towers (the building has to go UP) adjacent to each other with Construction Costs around $300M. There would be 8 floors of parking attached in the back. Your Soft Costs and Sales Commissions run about $75M and each Building has 150 units (5 per floor). You sell the 300 Units for an average of $2,000,000 per and gross $600,000,000. That would net as much as $100M or more. Lenders and Institutional Investors are all over this.

Outfits like Blackrock, State Street and Prudential have a combined nearly $20 TRILLION (that is Trillion with a T) of Institutional Money under Mgmt. It is not as easy as one think thinks to find places to invest that much money. The State of Florida needs to step in with some type of support. And somebody has to come up with a bigger development plan. An entire community that has to include a new Race Track Casino with Sports Book and everything.

The buzzards are circling Gulfstream. Developers smell profits. Somebody with vision needs to step up. Stronach was right he just ran out of Capital. But he always had the Land Play as a Safety Net.....

[HP]

Interesting thread.  A few comments.

I\'ve been to Gulfstream a few times over the past two years.  In a word, awful.  A zombie shopping mall and a \"racino\" with electronic games and slots.  I walked out onto the track, they have speakers facing INTO the crowd playing music.  I like peace at the track, not a radio blasting in my face?  The song?  I walk in and blasting in my face is \"Iron Man\" by Black Sabbath.  I couldn\'t make it up if I tried.  Now I\'m good with Black Sabbath but not what I\'m looking for at this particular time?  And I mean LOUD.  So clearly the people running the place have no idea what they\'re doing.  At all.  

I stayed at the Holiday Inn that overlooked Calder back in the day?  Nothing good is ever going to happen there.  Hialeah is beautiful, what a waste.  So you\'re left with Gulfstream Mall.  Yuck.  

As for the land bonanza, I\'m no expert but I don\'t get it.  As landscape goes it\'s absolutely nowhere, and who\'s dying to spend lots of money to live in a condo THERE?  Really?  The only way I\'d be interested in a condo there is if they keep the track, and even then I\'d need a soundproof spacesuit to go there and enjoy a day.

HP

[Silver Charm]

Look when Stronach tore down we the old building and put the Casino building up he missed the mark. We talked about how good \"it used to be there\" and we had an outdoor box on the Finish Line. But Stronach was the guy who got the Slot Bill thru legislation. It failed and he tried again. He had Entertainment and Comedy Clubs built into Gulfstream bit it wasn\'t big enough for somebody good and define good. A friend said Night Ranger \"Sister Christian\" is $300,000 at the Hard Rock. Whats Springsteen or Rod Stewart?

I heard Belinda Stonach was interviewed and perhaps said the Track has a place just not in the middle of a City. We\'ll moving to Palm Meadows might temporarily have some fresh Everglades air but it\'s going to take a full 500 acre Development. Multi Family Rentsl. Residential. Retail. Commercial. Industrial. Hotels. Golf Course. And a Race Track Casino Sports Book. But it\'s still not a Layup.

You need Investors with 10 year deep pockets. This is about money people. And go to some Big Hedge Fund or Institutional Investor \"Investment Committee\" and try and sell them on horses having a good place to gaze and get fresh warm air and your ass is laughed out of the room and told to never come back. But if its a $1,000,000,000 initial build out with expansion legs after that. The best investor and most motivated would be Stronach. There is something called a 1031 Exchange in Real Estate and if you roll over a Profit into a \"Like Kind Asset\" It\'s TAX FREE.

Somewhere in the middle of this Rooney and his Dog Track would need to compensated if not taken out. Because a Casino like would destroy his place. But don\'t feel sorry for them. They have owned that property for years with a Rent Paying Tenant (the Dog business) and the value of his Land has gone up and the Dog Tracks are dead if not for Full Card Simulcasting and SLots. And for Simulcasting they can thank Ken Dunn at Calder and Slots Thank Frank. And they are good people but are obstacles and haven\'t done anything but sit on their Land and business as it slowly dies.....