Garbage out

[TGJB]

Jake has Thorpedo Anna winning the Oaks going BACK 2 points. And (wait for it)….

Running 4 points SLOWER than her 2yo top. Seriously.

In other words, if you believe Jakes figures, if TA had run back to her TWO YEAR OLD top, she would have won by 13 lengths.

They also have Just FYI going back 3 points in the Oaks.

How the hell can you guys charge actual money for that crap? That’s not even at the level of some kid’s homemade figures.

[Gary Irish]

Hello Jerry,

You know I read your board and when you criticize Jake and The Sheets I try to look the other way. That isn\'t true. A veteran Sheets player has gone to your side, and it bothers me. He is a close friend. He has had success using your product.

How do you see the Woody Stephens? Race 8 Saturday. I\'m warming up to 11 Maximus Meridius (15-1) in this spot. Nice post, line, weight break, and a ton of questions for the ones who figure to take money.

My opinion is Sheets based. Is this post inappropriate? Cut it. No problema mi amigo.

[statuette]

Hard to imagine why your moving to Columbia….

[TGJB]

Stat, I’m up to my eyes and stressed trying to get everything done so I can head up to Saratoga, but that was the funniest post in a long time.

Gary, I don’t know what you’re saying isn’t true, but someone sent me their garbage, and every word I said about Thorpedo and the Oaks is true.

[Gary Irish]

Hello Stat,

I thought you lived in Illinois. You have to ask why moving is a good idea (lol)? Look at the departure stats recently. Is there no reason?

I live at the poverty level here, just Social Security ($18,500/yr). That is okay to get by but just. Down there it is very comfortable time.

The girl is the main thing. I have two strikes against, but am still in the batter\'s box. I hope to make solid contact this time. She will be 24 6/18.

Who knows what tomorrow will bring?

[TGJB]

Gary, I’m leaving this one up, but going forward keep it to racing.

[TGJB]

I was going to drop this, til I read some truly gob smacking posts on Jake’s site.

Most of you will remember that after Derby weekend we posted the TG sheets for Oaks and Derby days, with what numbers they ran. There were only two ways to do the Oaksâ€" give the top three new tops and have most of the field run poorly, or essentially have the top three pair up, and the rest of the field run really badly. I went with the first option, which is more likely in a high profile GI, but the second is possible, and we’ll review it when a bunch have run back.

What Jake (“Ragozin”) did (after adjusting for scale) was to go FOUR POINTS WORSE than the second, slower option. SIX points worse than the way we did it. He has, as noted by his customers on their board, the WHOLE field making backward moves. He has TA not only winning the top 3yo filly race in this country while going backward, but by running four points worse than her 2yo top.

What prompted this second post is the discussion on the Jake board that the bad figures the fillies “ran” are a sign that the track was tiring.

1â€" if the track is tiring and times are slower, you adjust the variant (and figures you assign) accordingly. THAT’S WHAT SPEED FIGURES ARE, and are for. That’s exactly what professional level figure makers get paid to do. If you’re not going to do that you might as well use raw times.

2- the theory behind making (and  handicapping using) speed figures is that previous figures are predictive of future figures. If that’s not true we can all go home. Clearly, Jake did not make the Oaks figures based on the previous figures of horses in that race. So what he did was use the surrounding races, create an average variant, and apply it, IGNORING the horses in that race themselves. That is dogmatic nonsense in any event, let alone on a day with water in the track and an hour and a half between races.

I said before those figures aren’t at the level of a kid’s homemade work. I meant it. They’re a joke.

[TreadHead]

I read this in Don Draper \"THATS WHAT THE MONEY IS FOR\" voice: THATS WHAT THE SPEED FIGURES ARE FOR.

The cognitive dissonance required to make an argument for their figure making after reading (and comprehending) what you just wrote is astounding.  And perhaps the problem is, they just dont comprehend.

Welcome to the pools!

[grinder]

It appears that it is a methodology issue on their part, founded in a dogmatic view that tracks don\'t change speed during a race day. If you are anchored to that belief, the figures they produce will be - garbage out.

[TGJB]

Right. As a guy who many years ago started out over there, it is definitely a methodology issue, not one of judgement.

[Boscar Obarra]

Hey. now that she\'s buried the field in the Acorn,  will they claim they were right, and that she moved up off a \'soft\' race.  ;-)

[toppled]

If you want a really good laugh, go to their board & read the thread titled \"Is Thorpedo Anna a Probable 0-2-X YIKES\" After the race one of our wiseguys posted into the thread \"absolute garbage oaks numbers...refund please!!\"

[Gary Irish]

This is great. Where can I learn more about how to be smart?

[TGJB]

I can tell where not to learn.

[Gary Irish]

Hello Jerry,

I shouldn\'t have taken the bait. But you know how I get.

I don\'t know anything about figure making. I know a little about reading sheets. It takes time. I know a lot about blood. It often doesn\'t help.

I have become better at identifying when to bet. I had help. In tomorrows Woody Stephens I think Max is the play. What I know is these type of bets (15-1 ML) are the ones to look for. For the long term.

As you might have read on the other board, I like 7 Life Changer (10-1) in the third and 4 Accretive (5-1) in the 4th. I will add 2 Kuchar (8-1) in the 6th.

I cannot say how my day will go. I hope to win, of course. But I am not afraid to be wrong in public. Do you have a pick in the Stephens?