Breeder's Cup

[jimbo66]

Ok, all of the significant preps have been run for the Breeder\'s Cup.  How about some thoughts from some of the experts here about the horses they expect to run well or run poorly in the BC.  Personally, I think the Breeder\'s CUp is a tough betting proposition every year.  Lots of \"great value\" bets, but tough to find the winners!

I will try to start a discussion with a few opinions:

1.  The bandwagon for Sweet Catomine can\'t get any bigger.  Sense of Style went from being the biggest favorite on BC day, to probable second choice.  I have to watch her race again but she wouldn\'t be the first horse to have trouble on the Keenland surface and then run back to her old numbers on a different surface.  

2.  Kitten\'s Joy will be probable favorite off of his huge win last week.  But we shouldn\'t forget that the Europeans he beat were the \"second stringers\". Depending on who comes over, betting against Kitten\'s Joy and on the top Euros, might provide some value.

3.  I thought Sun King got a strange ride from Javier Castellano in the Champagne.  He had exploded at the top of the lane in a good field to break his maiden.  Castellano had him pressing the pace on Saturday.  At a price, he could be tough off the pace in the BC.

4.  The Classic is going to be interesting.  I am still not convinced that Ghostzapper wants 1 1/4.  However, he will go into the race as the fastest horse and all the BC future pools I have seen list Pleasantly Perfect as the favorite.  I haven\'t seent the number that Perfect Drift ran in the Hawthorne race, and I can\'t like the fact that Freefourinternet beat him, but that was one of the worst rides I have seen in a while on a heavy favorite.  I may be stubborn, but I still remember the Perfect Drift that ran down an \"in form\" Mineshaft.  And I am suspect about Ghostzapper at the distance and also Pleasantly Perfect, as I don\'t think he was as sharp at Delmar as earlier in the year.  But Murray Johnson is 0 for 2004 as a trainer.  Tough record to bet on!

[jbelfior]

Jimbo---

SUN KING will be an interesting play.

PERFECT DRIFT may be starting to get that 5yo syndrome; no improvement, just the same steady performances where if someone else runs a big one, he\'ll come up second best. Besides, I never liked the DYNAFORMERS going a mile and a quarter on dirt.

KITTENS\'S JOY---two big numbers in a row; i know this is a 3yo and this is turf, but perhaps a bounce is looming. Besides, she likes to run outside and I think the AP and Belmont turns will be sorely missed in Texas.


SENSE OF STYLE--It was not Keenland; it was the 2 turns.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[STB]

Any thoughts on Film Maker in the F&M Turf?

Her late kick was negated a bit in her last two races due to slow paces, but she made up a lot of ground late in the Flower Bowl and had the look of one who\'ll like the 1 3/8ths. And this may be a reach, but I\'m guessing her near-miss at Saratoga, on the inner turf, is an indication she can handle the tighter turns at Lone Star. Relatively lightly raced this year, may have room for further development. She should be a juicy price and would only need to hit the board to juice up the exotics.

[jimbo66]

Joe B,

You really think that a daughter of Thunder Gulch can\'t go two turns?  

We\'ll see.  But I won\'t believe it was the two turns unless it happens again.

[P.Eckhart]

I tend to do all I want ante-post and just leave it that.

In the Classic I bet Pleasantly Perfect at 11/2 back in mid-August and covered the stake with Dynever at 25/1. Don\'t have much to say cept I\'ll be glad to get there albeit with a deal less value than I\'d hoped for. Ghostzapper and St Liam were not even on my radar back then.

In the F&M, I bet Yesterday at 20/1 after Aidan said she was probably going. She was 3rd at S.Anita last year but the extra furlong for this years race will be a big bonus. She was at deaths door in the spring so has only run twice this season, so she is maybe one run short, though I hope not. The downside is I\'d expected Ouija Board to have been pulled out which never happened, though it still might. Barring Ouija the race looks a quite weak and open. I\'d\'ve preferred Nebraska Tornado to have gone for the mile, which in turn might have stopped me placing a silly bet.
 
In the Mile, I\'ve bet Artie Schiller at 20/1. I know nothing at all about him bar the hype. The european turf miling elite wont be there and of whats left I didn\'t like. Six Perfections has been formless this year, Cacique is nothing better than G2, Whipper probably the same unless he gets soft ground which I assume he wont. If Artie was all shilling, I\'d expect some decent North American G1 to win this, although I know not what.

I\'ve no bet as yet in the Turf and it\'ll probably stay that way. Kittens Joy looks very solid from here. I do want to take him on though but with one horse and one alone - Mubtaker. Ought to have run in the Arc IMO, may go to Woodbine or the Champion Stakes instead but hope Sheikh Hamdan sees sense and gives him his chance at Lone Star.

For the future, I hope Kittens Joy comes to europe next year to plunder some prizes. Also looking forward to seeing what happens to the Wm Mott filly, I forget the name, Giants Causeway - Urban Sea. If she lives up to that breeding, ouch!