Churchill

[Fairmount1]

Interesting start to the Churchill Downs meet with some big prices after they had to shift their meet in May/June over to Ellis amid controversy.  More notable than the generalized \"big prices\" statement:

Steve Asmussen:

9/14:  4th at 3-1, 2nd choice.  
9/15:  5th at 5-2, 2nd choice.  6th at .90-1, favorite. 6th at 24-1.  6th at .51-1, favorite.  
9/16:  7th at 9-2, 3rd choice.  Still running at 1-5, favorite LOL.  

Brad Cox:

9/15:  10th at 9-1, 6th at 5-2, 5th at 5-1.
9/16:  Last at 6-1, 6th at 6-5, Distant 2nd at 2-1.

Diodoro:

Two wins on opening day.  By 9L and by 3L. Guy barely got 2 wins at the Spa this year.  


Still some opportunities today to bet against the first two if interested.  I actually agree with the Campbell horse posted earlier this week off a likely work with an older stablemate and will bet to win.

[Fairmount1]

Since this post through the end of today\'s card:

Steve Asmussen:

9/16 (picking up where we left off):  2nd at 6-5, 5th at 11-1, (both in Iroquois); 4th at 9-1;  
9/17:  5th (last) at 3-1; Crossed wire 2nd, DQ into win 4L behind at 1-1; 4th at 8-5 fav; 5th at 5-1; 2nd at 3-2

Brad Cox:

9/16 (picking up where we left off):  5th at 5-2 (near co-fav), 6th at 3-1; 1st at 4-1 FTS MSW
9/17:  1st at 5-2 (2nd choice) FTS MdnClm30k; 2nd at 2-1 2nd choice; 1st DQ into 2nd at 6-1 (was best but did foul); 7th at 5-2 second choice; 4th at 5-1;

SA continues to be ICE cold for whatever reason.  Has one win officially but none of his horses have crossed the wire first despite 12 of them the last 4 days being 5-1 or less and 7 of those being 8-5 or less.  

Brad picked off some (2 and nearly 3) maiden wins and was best in the one he was DQ-ed out of the top spot.

[Roman]

Does anyone think it has to do with the new protocols and HISA. An owner told me today that SA was losing with short prices and was wondering if they backed off of something they were using. This is complete conjecture by the way and does not mean to cast any suspicion, just asking.

[Molesap]

Speaking of trainers who did not have a good day, Chad did not have a stellar day at Baq today, at least he is 17-3-2-2 overall at the meet so far:

2nd at $0.90
6th at $0.70
3rd and 4th as part of an entry at $0.30
8th at $3.50

[Fairmount1]

Molesap,

Thanks for posting as I didn\'t follow BAQ at all today.  Always looking to TOSS huge favs everyone says and these are some good angles to do so until the tide turns for them.  

Roman,

I don\'t have the answer either but it sure makes you wonder what\'s different bc it sure seems something is not quite the same.

[Fairmount1]

Steve Asmussen with another rough day or two at the office in Louisville.

9/20:  3rd at 8-1; 4th at 20-1 and 8th at 4-1 (2nd choice) in same race;
9/21:  6th at 4-1 (3rd choice); 4th at 2-1 (favorite) Dq moved him up to 3rd; 4th at 9-2 2nd choice; 1ST AT 7-1 WINNER WINNER finally;

He finally gets a horse to cross the wire first.  Be interesting to see how he does next few days now.

_____________________

As for Chad, 1 for his last 23 at Parx the last 5 years.  That was a 6-5 shot in 2019. Who would have ever guessed that?  

Occult in the Cotillion?  Will they actually be able to run with the weather coming?  Might be one to fade in the win spot.  Heard a few analysts talk about this one as a use.  I can\'t play off a stat like that.

[shanahan]

I never bet Parx recing, and dismiss any competitive figs from horses earned at Parx (or DEL).  Your Chad stats bear out why...

You going to BC?

[Molesap]

Great stuff as usual. I\'m going to modify the Chad Brown stat a bit - hope Fairmount1 does not mind. Let\'s go ahead and separate turf versus dirt at Parx. I went back to 2018, although it doesn\'t change the stats much:

At Parx since 1/1/2018, Chad Brown is 25-1-8-2 overall. Let’s break it down by surface:

Turf - 2-1-1-0
Dirt - 23-0-7-2

I will let you come to your own conclusions...

[Roman]

They need to spread grass seed onto the dirt track?

[Fairmount1]

Chad was 0 for 2 on Dirt on Saturday.  One trailed throughout and never looked interested.  The other, Occult, ran fairly well but ended up 3rd but never looked to be a winner.  Molesap, I always enjoy intelligent posts that add to the handicapping of a race.  

Shanahan,

No BC this year.  My friends and I (group of 7 Friday and 13 Saturday) from the area are going to Churchill for BC weekend.  They do a solid job of spacing their live races between the BC races and switching back the feed in between each.  It gets us all out of town for a weekend, get to spend time together, and still get to see live racing and the BC simulcast.  Our experiences at SA for BC years back have been pretty good but some BC experiences have been awful esp last year and it is way overpriced.  I\'d rather spend my travel/hotel/dining money on Oaks and Derby weekend live and in person than on BC live without a doubt.  

Hope all is well your way.  I\'ve booked my plane ticket for Southwest weekend at Oaklawn already and have a good group going.  Also booked my FOY tickets.  Hope you make it and I\'m sure I\'ll show up and surprise you once or twice during the OP meet at the last minute (aka Rebel or Ark Derby likely haha).

[wrongly2]

Fairmount

Get ready for the price increase on Derby and Oaks this coming year.  Not only does CD want to be paid by Oct. 31st but they just dropped a 12% price increase on season box holders.  Think the time has finally come to give up my box.