Travers Field Set

[Molesap]

1. Forte 7/5
2. Arcangelo 5/2
3. Tapit Trice 12-1
4. Mage 4-1
5. National Treasure 8-1
6. Disarm 8-1
7. Scotland 12-1

[P-Dub]

JB when do you think Saratoga Saturday will be ready??  Thx...

[Fairmount1]

Travers Day Field Sizes for Stakes Races:

5, 6, 8, 7, 7.  Average Field Size.  6.6.

Charles Town Fields Sizes for Stakes Races Fri Night:

7, 10, 10 (+1 AE), 9, 10 (+4 AE\'s), 10 (+2 AE\'s), 10 (+1 AE), 10 (+1 AE), 10 (+3 AE\'s).  Average Field Size:  9.55 (not counting AE\'s).  

NYRA can only find 5 trainers it seems that get fast horses that can win graded stakes as a general rule.  You can name all 5 I\'m sure. And that\'s why field size suffers b/c it is pretty obvious it ain\'t worth trying to beat those 5 guys in the big races.  That NYRA product at Saratoga this summer has been a real treat.

On another note, Asmussen, Clement, and Miller got in some HISA trouble? No worries, I\'m sure they won\'t face any real consequences as HISA has already backed off some of their strong consequences with other trainers they caught violating their rules.  I\'ll wait for the first real \"JOURNALIST\" in the racing game to interview any of these 3 in great detail about these Rules Violations.  Or even better how about taking their workers pay to immigrant workers to pay their own attorney\'s fees.  No worries, he is taking his NY string and moving elsewhere because the money just doesn\'t add up. . . I did catch that article but nary a word about the real issues these guys should be talking about and journalists should be writing about.

[P-Dub]

Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That NYRA product at Saratoga
> this summer has been a real treat.

You got to meet me, that in itself makes up for anything bad.

[Fairmount1]

P-Dub,

Going To Saratoga is always a fantastic experience especially being around the generous folks I\'ve met.  Including you.  

When I\'m there it is easy to say there is nowhere I\'d rather be.  

Unfortunately, the on track racing product this season (part of it beyond anyone\'s control with weather) has been horrific.  

I\'ll be up most of Labor Day weekend for a last hurrah this year.  Making it twice a year is an annual goal with a long term goal of staying the whole meet when I reach retirement age. . . . if racing is still around.

[Molesap]

Luis Saez was injured in a spill at Saratoga Wednesday and will be off his mounts
 - Flavien Prat has the call on Mage in the Travers.

[johnnym]

Look at National Treasures sheet.

Go back and look at Arrogate sheet.


Good luck
John

[pip4126]

Is Gunite the play especially with the weight shift?

[jerry]

Dwindling field sizes and scant betting opportunities especially on major stakes days has been a plague for quite awhile.

Why not bring back handicap races where there's a spread of at least 12 pounds from highest to lowest? That's 3 points! That brings all kinds of horses into the mix. If the high weight barns don't like it let them take their act some where else. I could care less about watching an odds on champion win for fun. I'm there for the wagering opportunity. If you want to watch horses running around the track meaninglessly go to the breakfast.

[jerry]

Scotland at 12-1 ML

[P-Dub]

1 - Forte 7/5ML: Nice pair going into this race, not a bad pattern at all. The BI/BO in his last 2 are concerning.  He can win this, but IMO a massive underlay.

2 - Archangelo 5/2ML: A Ton of development from his 2YO race. 2 huge jumps of 4 points each, backed up a little to win the Belmont. Is this an 0-2-X waiting to happen?? Anyone well versed on that let me know. Still, at 5/2 coming off a backward move with the 2 prior huge jump ups, another underlay for me.

3- Tapit Trice 12ML: Has alternated races recently, good/bad/good/bad from a numbers standpoint.  He\'s due for a good one, gets blinkers. Had trouble in the Derby as many do and ran a clunker last time. If he runs his race will be right there at a price.

4 - Mage 4ML: His Derby and Haskell are the 2 fastest in the race. Regressed in the Preakness, got back to the fast one last time. Have to use him.

5 - National Treasure - 8ML: Still hasn\'t gotten back to his 2YO top, and has paired the same number in his 4 races this year which won\'t get it done. He would need a 3-4 point jump. I\'ll pass

6 - Disarm 8ML: Not a bad pattern at all, he just hasn\'t run a number fast enough to win yet.  Gets blinkers. Has a license to break through and an absolute use underneath.

7 - Scotland 12ML: This horse is really interesting. Lightly raced just got started this year. Paired his last 3 races, and while those aren\'t fast enough they aren\'t bad at all........why not a forward move to be right in this?? Went 2 turns for the first time and wired the field on this track. NT will probably go right to the front, this one can lay right off of him. Fired off a bullet half mile best of 69 on the training track.

Scotland is a live longshot. Will key him with Forte, Tapit Trice, Mage, and Disarm.

I\'ll take a stand against Archangelo.

[pip4126]

Excellent assessment P-Dub. I think Mage is ready to explode! He will be my key with the ones you mentioned.
However, I can\'t wait to watch Echo Zulu destroy the field in the Ballerina.
Good luck to you and all tomorrow.

[Molesap]

I liked P-Dub's format so much, I "borrowed" it.

1 - Forte 7/5ML: Agree with P-Dub completely. Forte was clearly at the top of the class last year and most have been anticipating a major forward move, but he has just inched forward as a three-year old. His speed figures have not increased much, his wins have been marginal and he was beaten in the Belmont. Yet, he seems to have an uncanny will to win and gets to the wire first most of the time. I am going to have to use him in the P5 on half the tickets even though I suspect he will be less than even money when the gates open.

2 - Archangelo 5/2ML: Hate the 11 weeks off but the Belmont-Travers double is 6-1-0-3 in the last 20 years, so maybe it is not that bad. Thought he got the perfect trip in the Belmont. He is a toss for me as well as I think he will regress and while I am still learning how to read patterns, I don't like his.

3- Tapit Trice 12ML: He is just a goofy horse. I\'m surprised that it took them this long to put the blinkers on but maybe it makes a difference. It sometimes takes the offspring of Tapit a lot of time before their head catches up with their physical ability and sometimes it never happens. He has competitive numbers and his in/out pattern points to "in" today as P-Dub noted. I know there is more to it than this, but if you rank order the TG figures, Mage has the fastest two and then Tapit Trice has the next two fastest tied with one for Arcangelo - Tapit Trice has the talent, but "you gotta get your mind right." At double digit odds, I can take a flyer on the second fastest horse in the race who may be coming into the race on the upswing.

4 - Mage 4ML: Trainer stated that he did not want to run Mage back in the Preakness two weeks after the Derby except he felt compelled to do so with the Triple Crown. As TGJB reminded me, two weeks off is tough to overcome and he regressed. Before the Haskell, trainer said it was more likely Mage would be a little short as they were using this as a prep race for their ultimate goal - the Travers. He loomed at the top of the stretch and it looked like he hung a bit late - just as you would expect a horse to do that was running the race as a prep. He paired his Derby figure in the Haskell as a prep. I think the five weeks off is ideal and he looks set for a forward move here. In my estimation, he is the fastest horse coming in and the most likely to move forward. I think he has a breakout race and he is my top choice. I really like this spot for him. I have already singled him in a relatively cheap two day P6.

5 - National Treasure 8ML: National Treasure got the perfect set a circumstances in the Preakness and made the most of it when he wired the field in an extremely slowly paced race. I think he is quicker than Scotland (and the TG Pace Projector agrees with that) but interestingly the blinkers they put on for him to run in that race are coming off today - is that a signal they\'re not going send him? I think it\'s odd because Baffert attributed at least part of the Preakness win to new blinkers. johnnym noted that if you look at his TG sheet, his three-year old pattern looks similar to Arrogate's with a bunch of 4s before blowing up this race. I am not betting that\'s going to happen. I will not use.

6 - Disarm 8ML: Disarm has been competitive in the Triple Crown trail for the most part but has been on the short end of the stick against a couple of these a few times. He gets blinkers and there\'s no reason he can\'t run well. However, unless he improves more than a couple of lengths and everyone else just treadmills, he probably will not end up in the winner's circle. Could get a piece though.

7 - Scotland 12ML: Intriguing entrant who I think is going to get bet relatively hard - I put the over/under at 7/1. Scotland is the newcomer to all of this, and he is a late developing 3YO with a bit of buzz. Mott trains and the horse he just beat in the Curlin won the Smarty Jones at Prx the other day. This is a huge step up in class though and while the pace dynamics may work a bit in his favor, I think he is becoming the wise guy horse. He went 9f OK last time, but with that Speightstown mare bottom, I wonder of he wants 10f. That being said, I suspect he will be on or near the lead going into the stretch. After that I am just guessing but the more experienced routers with quicker late fractions may run him down. Comes down to price for me, but anything near his morning line seems like it would be good value.

I have the same tosses as P-Dub, but my key will be the shorter priced Mage. I will be keying Mage with some plays to Forte and Tapit Trice in the multi-race exotics and maybe a stab to Scotland as well.

[TGJB]

One comment, since it's come up a couple of times, and it's not specific to the Travers— when you're looking at a horse off a big effort (or two), extra rest is a good thing.

One way to look at is to imagine the horse off an 0-2 had run back 4 weeks later and run an X, and now has had time since then.

As in all these cases, you have to evaluate what you think the top meant to the horse in question, and that involves a lot of things— pattern (how much has he developed? How has he reacted off previous tops?), pedigree, trainer, etc.

[prist]

\"Misty morning, clouds in the sky
Without warning, a wizard walks by\"

MAGE, according to trainer Delgado, was not 100% for the Haskell. TGJB begs to differ. Either way, I\'m interested at 3/1 and up that he continues \"spreading his magic\" at the Spa.

https://youtu.be/MeZ8uVIOIhM?si=c9rr8fAsS5qzhRED