Derby Conditions

[TreadHead]

Looks like over an inch of rain is scheduled starting Thurs night, all day Fri, and into Sat early morning. Par for the course with Derbies lately, can\'t catch a break.

Reminder that the turf course was completely re-done last year.  visually it appears to be more elevated, like they put some formal drainage structure under it.  But even that may not prevent it from becoming aberrant after that much rain.

[trackjohn]

Couldn\'t agree more...at this point it\'s looking ugly in Louisville... heavy rain forecasted Thursday... continuing T\'storms on Friday with (at this point) showers likely for Saturday... just additional handicapping uncertainties...

John

[johnnym]

I'm getting this forecast

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/louisville/40202/daily-weather-forecast/348428

[jbelfior]

Not hearing that at this point. Rain should be out of the Louisville area by Friday morning and Saturday looks dry.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[toppled]

Latest hourly has rain all day Friday until Saturday morning, with the rain stopping early morning but a 3PM shower possible:

Time   Conditions   Temp.   Feels Like   Precip   Amount   Cloud Cover   Dew Point   Humidity   Wind   Pressure
12:00 am   ShowersShowers   61 °F   61 °F   46 %   0.01 in   81 %   57 °F   85 %   6 mph WSW   29.59 in
1:00 am   ShowersShowers   61 °F   60 °F   52 %   0.02 in   91 %   56 °F   86 %   6 mph WSW   29.59 in
2:00 am   ShowersShowers   60 °F   59 °F   47 %   0.01 in   94 %   56 °F   88 %   7 mph W   29.59 in
3:00 am   ShowersShowers   60 °F   59 °F   46 %   0.01 in   95 %   56 °F   88 %   6 mph W   29.58 in
4:00 am   ShowersShowers   60 °F   59 °F   36 %   0 in   93 %   56 °F   88 %   6 mph W   29.59 in
5:00 am   ShowersShowers   59 °F   59 °F   46 %   0.01 in   95 %   56 °F   89 %   6 mph WSW   29.59 in
6:00 am   ShowersShowers   59 °F   58 °F   52 %   0.01 in   97 %   56 °F   91 %   6 mph W   29.60 in
7:00 am   ShowersShowers   59 °F   58 °F   50 %   0.01 in   97 %   56 °F   93 %   6 mph W   29.62 in
8:00 am   CloudyCloudy   59 °F   59 °F   24 %   0 in   97 %   57 °F   91 %   6 mph WNW   29.63 in
9:00 am   CloudyCloudy   60 °F   59 °F   24 %   0 in   95 %   56 °F   88 %   7 mph W   29.65 in
10:00 am   CloudyCloudy   61 °F   60 °F   24 %   0 in   93 %   56 °F   86 %   8 mph W   29.66 in
11:00 am   CloudyCloudy   62 °F   61 °F   24 %   0 in   91 %   56 °F   82 %   8 mph WNW   29.67 in
12:00 pm   CloudyCloudy   63 °F   63 °F   24 %   0 in   89 %   56 °F   79 %   8 mph WNW   29.68 in
1:00 pm   CloudyCloudy   65 °F   65 °F   24 %   0 in   87 %   56 °F   73 %   8 mph WNW   29.69 in
2:00 pm   CloudyCloudy   66 °F   66 °F   24 %   0 in   89 %   56 °F   70 %   9 mph WNW   29.69 in
3:00 pm   Few ShowersFew Showers   66 °F   66 °F   30 %   0.01 in   90 %   55 °F   69 %   9 mph WNW   29.69 in
4:00 pm   CloudyCloudy   66 °F   66 °F   24 %   0 in   90 %   55 °F   67 %   9 mph NW   29.69 in
5:00 pm   CloudyCloudy   66 °F   66 °F   20 %   0 in   88 %   54 °F   65 %   10 mph NW   29.70 in
6:00 pm   CloudyCloudy   66 °F   66 °F   19 %   0 in   83 %   54 °F   65 %   9 mph NW   29.71 in
7:00 pm   CloudyCloudy   66 °F   66 °F   21 %   0 in   80 %   53 °F   64 %   9 mph NW   29.72 in
8:00 pm   Mostly CloudyMostly Cloudy   64 °F   64 °F   6 %   0 in   75 %   53 °F   67 %   7 mph NW   29.74 in

[TreadHead]

Yep, basically rain all day Friday, not stopping till early Sat, and little to no sun on Saturday.  They might get the dirt dried out by derby time, but definitely expect the turf will still be aberrant after that much rain, and early dirt card likely to be tricky on a drying out track.  As if the card wasn\'t hard enough already.  https://www.wunderground.com/hourly/us/ky/louisville/38.25,-85.76/date/2022-05-06

[TGJB]

Fox is showing the CD races and Maggie is down there, she figures to have some comments about mud feet.

[RICH]

and check out race 9 saturday

every horse within 1 1/2 points of each other, talk about a tough race

[trackjohn]

Guys...I have access to every computer weather model... forecast is NOT carved in stone...yet... Thursday not bad... Showers late... Friday...is problematic...Rain/showers most of the day...rain approximately 1/2\"-3/4\" total... except if they get ANY sun...if that happens then expect HEAVY T\'storms with a potential of 3\"+ of rain... too soon to tell .. IMO at this point figure ob at least 1/2\" of rain through Friday...more to follow.

John (Trackjohn)

[TreadHead]

FWIW it looks like KY adopted similar shoe rules top NYRA, nothing more than a 1/4 turndown allowed in the rear and just a couple mm on the front shoe grab.  Basically nullifies the need for shoe information, which is good, but to TGJBs point, makes it much more important to understand how feet will react to it, which is bad because that info is never provided to most players.

[Roman]

Will they be off the turf Friday? I think unless it's a quagmire, turf will be soft, and they will stay on , especially since they have the all turf pick 3. Always hate when weather impacts the big days. Like it fast and firm, equal chance for all.

[trackjohn]

Unfortunately no positive updates... figure on 3/4\"-1 1/4\"of rain Friday/Friday evening... question is if they\'ll get heavy rain on Saturday morning at this point that\'s still unknown...50/50 for partial clearing/cloudy later Saturday afternoon

[johnnym]

So the question is
How are you adjusting your handicapping?
Gun Runners seem to like the off going

[TreadHead]

It seems to me that sometime in the last 5 years the exact same thing happened, it rained all day Friday and they got over an inch of rain.  I cannot remember if they took anything off the turf Friday or not.

Friday\'s impact seems clear, all dirt races full slop and any turf racing, should it occur, will be a soggy crap shoot.

Saturday much tougher to figure out.  If it stops raining prior to noon, that track will be fast by Derby time, and the dirt will be worked all day and changing, which makes things very challenging on the early races.  If they end up with over an inch of rain, the turf condition really depends on how this new track/drainage works, would have to think it will still be yielding and aberrant.

[Roman]

I like Taiba, not worried about the derby size, all of them have to worry about 19 other horses, so it to me is a non factor since all deal with the same number of entrants, light on seasoning, but its a horse race, think he will be forwardly placed, so traffic a less concern for him, the mud is the question. Being out of Gunrunner certainly should help, looking like its going to be an off track, which should also help those that are forwardly placed, since it will string out the field more.

Also Messier looks tough, won\'t be anywhere close to 8-1 IMO, thinking probably second choice, maybe even favorite?